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2025

2025 season · final Every snap of the 2025 season, kept as it ended.Back to 2026 →

Week 5 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · Bank of America Stadium

Panthers offensevsDolphins defense

Season numbers through Week 22: 18 games for Panthers, 17 for Dolphins. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.

MIA offense CAR offense

How it played out · win probability, snap by snapFinal · MIA 24 · CAR 27

The Panthers won 27–24 from as low as 8% (Q2 6:57, down 17⁠–⁠0). The Dolphins had been 57% favorites at kickoff. The game turned for good at Q4 2:48: T.Etienne left tackle to MIA 4 for 12 yards (R.Douglas, K.Britt) (44% → 53%). The biggest single swing came at Q4 4:50, 32 points for the Dolphins.

At kickoffMIA 57%MIA by 1.5 on the line

CAR low point8%Q2 6:57 · down 17⁠–⁠0

Swings past 50%3times the favorite changed

Biggest swing32 ptsMIA · Q4 4:50

CAR wins50%MIA wins

12345Turning pointCAR low 8%

Q1Q2Q3Q4

The plays that swung it

1Q4 4:50MIAT.Tagovailoa pass deep left to J.Waddle for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN.45% → 76%+32 MIA
2Q4 3:31CARB.Young pass short right to Ji.Horn to MIA 16 for 17 yards (R.Douglas).24% → 44%+20 CAR
3Q4 1:46MIAT.Tagovailoa sacked at MIA 15 for -7 yards (P.Jones).72% → 87%+16 CAR
4Q4 9:09CARR.Dowdle right guard to MIA 32 for 43 yards (M.Fitzpatrick).26% → 41%+14 CAR
5Q3 14:53CARR.Dowdle right end to MIA 17 for 53 yards (M.Fitzpatrick).22% → 35%+14 CAR
★Q4 2:48CART.Etienne left tackle to MIA 4 for 12 yards (R.Douglas, K.Britt).turning point44% → 53%+9 CAR

Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. Each play is tagged with the team that had the ball; the bar names the team it helped. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.

Box score · every offensive player who touched the ballWeek 5

T.Tagovailoa led the Dolphins at +10.8 EPA (27 of 36 for 256). R.Dowdle led the Panthers at +10.4 EPA (23 carries for 206).

Dolphins

Passing	C/A	Yds	TD	INT	Sk	EPA
T.Tagovailoa100%	27/36	256	3		3	+11.5

Rushing	Car	Share	Yds	EPA
D.Achane87%	10	71%	16	-3.3
O.II25%	3	21%	-2	-2.4
T.Tagovailoa100%	1	7%	5	-0.7

Receiving	Tgt	Share	Rec	Yds	TD	EPA
J.Waddle89%	9	26%	6	110	1	+10.4
D.Achane87%	7	21%	6	30	1	+0.8
D.Waller58%	5	15%	5	78	1	+10.4
J.Hill53%	5	15%	4	22		-0.8
M.Washington58%	5	15%	4	0		-4.1
T.Conner20%	2	6%	2	16		+0.3
A.Ingold29%	1	3%	0	0		-0.5

Defense M.Fitzpatrick 1 INT, B.Chubb 1 sack, J.Phillips 1 sack, J.Brooks 0.5 sacks · Kicking R.Patterson 1/1 FG (long 43)

Panthers

Passing	C/A	Yds	TD	INT	Sk	EPA
B.Young100%	19/30	198	2	1	3	-1.3

Rushing	Car	Share	Yds	TD	EPA
R.Dowdle67%	23	72%	206	1	+9.4
T.Etienne20%	4	13%	22		+0.7
B.Young100%	3	9%	1		+0.4
J.Jr.27%	2	6%	10		+0.4

Receiving	Tgt	Share	Rec	Yds	TD	EPA
T.McMillan90%	8	30%	6	73		+6.5
R.Dowdle67%	4	15%	3	28		+1.0
H.Renfrow43%	3	11%	1	7		-3.7
X.Legette79%	3	11%	2	31	1	+0.5
J.Jr.27%	3	11%	2	21		+3.2
T.Tremble76%	2	7%	1	7		-0.3
J.Mitchell19%	1	4%	1	11		+0.9
B.Tremayne24%	1	4%	1	9		+0.9
M.Evans37%	1	4%	1	4	1	+1.2
T.Etienne20%	1	4%	1	7		+0.1

Defense A.Robinson 1 sack, D.Brown 1 sack, P.II 1 sack · Kicking R.Fitzgerald 2/2 FG (long 49)

Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.

Keys to the game · from the season numbers, not this game alone4 reads

Biggest edge

Ground game edge

Panthers average 4.3 yards per carry (14th). Dolphins allow 4.6 (25th).

Opportunity

Deep middle is open

Dolphins are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +0.54 EPA per attempt. Panthers send 3% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.

Watch out

Wideouts get blanketed

Dolphins give up 127 yards a game to wide receivers (9th), against a league average of 140. Panthers' wide receivers produce 131 (19th).

Wash

EPA per play

Call this one even. Panthers average -0.04 EPA per play (26th). Dolphins allow +0.09 (26th). League average is +0.01.

The series · Dolphins and Panthers since 1999, and this season's records8 meetings

The Dolphins lead the series 5–3 since 1999 (they first met in 2001). This game is the latest meeting.

Dolphins at home4–1the Dolphins' record

In Carolina1–2the Dolphins' record

Most pointsDolphins 42 · Panthers 452023 · 2017

Biggest winDolphins by 23 · Panthers by 242021 · 2017

The last 5

2025 · Wk 5	MIA 24 at CAR 27
2023 · Wk 6	CAR 21 at MIA 42
2021 · Wk 12	CAR 10 at MIA 33
2017 · Wk 10	MIA 21 at CAR 45
2013 · Wk 12	CAR 20 at MIA 16

2025 records

	Dolphins	Panthers
Overall	7–10	8–9
Division	3–3	3–3
Conference	3–9	6–6
Other conference	4–1	2–3
Home	5–4	5–3
Away	2–6	3–6
Last 5	WLLWL	WLWLL
Streak	Lost 1	Lost 2
Points a game	20.4 – 24.9	18.3 – 22.4

Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Dolphins' side. Records are this regular season.

Head to head · CAR offense against MIA defense

Stat	CAR off	MIA def allows	NFL avg
Overall
EPA per play	-0.04#26	+0.09#26	+0.01
Success rate	43%#18	48%#29	44%
Yards per play	5.1#26	5.9#26	5.4
Explosive play rate	9%#24	11%#25	10%
Passing
Pass EPA per dropback	-0.06#25	+0.13#26	+0.01
Sack rate	6%#13	7%#13	7%
Running
Run EPA per carry	-0.05#17	-0.03#20	-0.05
Yards per carry	4.3#14	4.6#25	4.3
Money downs
3rd down conversion	37%#25	41%#17	40%
Red zone TD rate	57%#20	65%#26	59%
Targets by position
WR yards per game	131#19	127#9	140
TE yards per game	37#30	66#29	53
TE targets per game	5.8#27	8.2#25	7.3
RB receiving yards per game	31#14	37#25	32

Where the ball goes · EPA per throwDeep is 15+ air yds

Panthers: EPA per throw

Left

Middle

Right

Deep

+0.497% of throws

+0.243% of throws

+0.455% of throws

Short

-0.0333% of throws

+0.1517% of throws

-0.0234% of throws

Dolphins: EPA allowed per throw

Left

Middle

Right

Deep

+0.1842 throws

+0.5411 throws

+0.4640 throws