2025
Week 5 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · Lucas Oil Stadium
vs
Raiders offensevsColts defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Raiders, 17 for Colts. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Colts won 40–6 and were favored the whole way, never below 54%. The biggest single swing came at Q2 11:38, 8 points for the Colts.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q2 11:38INDD.Jones pass short left to T.Warren for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.68% → 76%
- 2Q1 4:54INDG.Smith sacked at IND 14 for -11 yards (T.Lewis).54% → 62%
- 3Q2 14:21INDD.Jones pass short left to T.Warren to LV 21 for 19 yards (K.Kelly).61% → 68%
- 4Q2 9:38INDA.Cole punt is BLOCKED by S.Olubi, recovered by LV-I.Thomas at LV 8.81% → 87%
- 5Q2 3:59INDG.Smith pass short middle intended for J.Bech INTERCEPTED by L.Latu (G.Stewart) at IND 12. L.Latu to IND 12 for no gain (S.Forsythe).88% → 94%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
T.Tucker led the Raiders at +4.6 EPA (4 catches for 62). D.Jones led the Colts at +12.8 EPA (20 of 29 for 212).
Raiders
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G.Smith100% | 25/36 | 228 | 2 | 4 | -10.9 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.Jeanty54% | 14 | 56% | 67 | -0.7 | |
| R.Mostert47% | 7 | 28% | 22 | -3.2 | |
| G.Smith100% | 3 | 12% | 8 | +0.2 | |
| T.Tucker88% | 1 | 4% | 9 | +0.8 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.Jeanty54% | 7 | 19% | 5 | 42 | -0.6 | |
| J.Meyers88% | 6 | 17% | 4 | 32 | +2.0 | |
| A.Okwuegbunam46% | 6 | 17% | 5 | 36 | +1.6 | |
| T.Tucker88% | 6 | 17% | 4 | 62 | +3.8 | |
| J.Bech53% | 5 | 14% | 3 | 27 | -3.4 | |
| I.Thomas56% | 3 | 8% | 3 | 20 | +1.2 | |
| D.Jr.47% | 2 | 6% | 0 | 0 | -8.1 | |
| A.Bachman12% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 9 | +0.8 |
Defense no sacks or interceptions · Kicking D.Carlson 2/3 FG (long 37)
Colts
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Jones89% | 20/29 | 212 | 2 | +12.4 | ||
| A.Richardson11% | 1/2 | 9 | -1.2 | |||
| T.Warren71% | 0/1 | 0 | -0.5 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Taylor74% | 17 | 68% | 66 | 3 | +4.6 |
| D.Giddens14% | 5 | 20% | 22 | +0.1 | |
| A.Abdullah8% | 2 | 8% | 6 | 1 | +1.1 |
| D.Jones89% | 1 | 4% | 2 | +0.4 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Downs50% | 8 | 26% | 6 | 54 | +4.7 | |
| M.Pittman82% | 6 | 19% | 5 | 39 | 1 | +1.3 |
| A.Dulin71% | 5 | 16% | 2 | 55 | +3.1 | |
| J.Taylor74% | 4 | 13% | 3 | 20 | +0.1 | |
| T.Warren71% | 4 | 13% | 4 | 44 | 1 | +4.0 |
| B.Raimann | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.4 | |
| A.Richardson11% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 9 | +0.5 | |
| A.Mitchell9% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -1.7 | |
| D.Giddens14% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.6 |
Defense M.Blackmon 1 INT, L.Latu 1 INT, D.Buckner 1 sack, S.Ebukam 1 sack
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Tight ends feast
Colts give up 70 yards a game to tight ends (31st), against a league average of 53. Raiders' tight ends produce 68 (5th).
Deep left is open
Colts are worst against deep left throws, allowing +0.86 EPA per attempt. Raiders send 5% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Ground game stalls
Raiders average 3.5 yards per carry (32nd). Colts allow 3.8 (5th).
Success rate
Call this one even. Raiders succeed on 38% of plays (30th) against a defense that allows 45% (23rd).
The Colts lead the series 9–5 since 1999 (they first met in 2000). They have won the last 3. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 5 | LV 6 at IND 40 |
| 2023 · Wk 17 | LV 20 at IND 23 |
| 2022 · Wk 10 | IND 25 at LV 20 |
| 2021 · Wk 17 | LV 23 at IND 20 |
| 2020 · Wk 14 | IND 44 at LV 27 |
2025 records
| Raiders | Colts | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 3–14 | 8–9 |
| Division | 1–5 | 2–4 |
| Conference | 3–9 | 6–6 |
| Other conference | 0–5 | 2–3 |
| Home | 2–7 | 6–3 |
| Away | 1–7 | 2–6 |
| Last 5 | LLLLW | LLLLL |
| Streak | Won 1 | Lost 7 |
| Points a game | 14.2 – 25.4 | 27.4 – 24.2 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Raiders' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | LV off | Favors LV · Favors IND | IND def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.22#32 | +0.00#16 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 38%#30 | 45%#23 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 4.4#31 | 5.4#17 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 7%#31 | 9%#14 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.19#29 | +0.04#18 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 11%#32 | 6%#25 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.30#32 | -0.09#8 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 3.5#32 | 3.8#5 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 35%#28 | 44%#25 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 49%#28 | 56%#12 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 100#30 | 168#31 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 68#5 | 70#31 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 9.2#3 | 8.4#29 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 27#21 | 24#4 | 32 | |
Raiders: EPA per throw
Colts: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.