2025
Week 5 · Sunday 4:05 PM ET · Lumen Field
vs
Buccaneers offensevsSeahawks defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Buccaneers, 20 for Seahawks. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Buccaneers won 38–35 from as low as 12% (Q4 3:18, down 35–28). The Seahawks had been 63% favorites at kickoff. The game turned for good at Q4 0:58: S.Darnold pass short middle intended for C.Kupp INTERCEPTED by L.David (L.Hall) at SEA 38. L.David to SEA 35 for 3 yards (G.Zabel) (28% → 77%).
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 0:58TBS.Darnold pass short middle intended for C.Kupp INTERCEPTED by L.David (L.Hall) at SEA 38. L.David to SEA 35 for 3 yards (G.Zabel).turning point28% → 77%
- 2Q3 1:37TBB.Mayfield pass deep left to E.Egbuka to SEA 2 for 57 yards (C.Bryant).42% → 66%
- 3Q4 3:25SEAS.Darnold pass deep left to T.Horton for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN.66% → 87%
- 4Q3 7:56TBB.Mayfield pass deep right to E.Egbuka for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN.44% → 63%
- 5Q1 4:10TBJ.Myers 44 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left38% → 54%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
B.Mayfield led the Buccaneers at +25.7 EPA (29 of 33 for 379). S.Darnold led the Seahawks at +23.4 EPA (28 of 34 for 341).
Buccaneers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Mayfield100% | 29/33 | 379 | 2 | 1 | +26.0 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R.White80% | 14 | 58% | 41 | 2 | +0.3 |
| B.Mayfield100% | 5 | 21% | 15 | -0.3 | |
| S.Tucker21% | 3 | 13% | 3 | -1.6 | |
| S.Shepard41% | 1 | 4% | -5 | -1.1 | |
| K.Johnson11% | 1 | 4% | 2 | -0.4 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E.Egbuka85% | 7 | 22% | 7 | 163 | 1 | +17.1 |
| S.Shepard41% | 5 | 16% | 4 | 24 | 1 | +0.1 |
| C.Otton92% | 5 | 16% | 4 | 81 | +6.7 | |
| C.Jr.77% | 4 | 13% | 3 | 26 | +1.8 | |
| R.White80% | 4 | 13% | 4 | 30 | +1.3 | |
| T.Johnson36% | 4 | 13% | 4 | 59 | +4.2 | |
| S.Tucker21% | 3 | 9% | 3 | -4 | -2.8 |
Defense L.David 1 INT · Kicking C.McLaughlin 3/3 FG (long 39)
Seahawks
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S.Darnold100% | 28/34 | 341 | 4 | 1 | +23.4 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.III44% | 10 | 50% | 86 | +2.4 | |
| Z.Charbonnet56% | 9 | 45% | 36 | 1 | +1.5 |
| J.Milroe2% | 1 | 5% | 0 | -5.4 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Kupp89% | 9 | 26% | 6 | 59 | -0.7 | |
| J.Smith-Njigba90% | 9 | 26% | 8 | 132 | 1 | +11.0 |
| A.Barner80% | 7 | 21% | 7 | 53 | 2 | +6.0 |
| T.Horton49% | 4 | 12% | 3 | 39 | 1 | +4.7 |
| Z.Charbonnet56% | 2 | 6% | 1 | 12 | -0.7 | |
| D.Young7% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 36 | +2.6 | |
| K.III44% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 0 | -0.6 | |
| E.Arroyo43% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 10 | +1.1 |
Defense U.Nwosu 0.5 sacks, D.Bell 0.5 sacks · Kicking J.Myers 0/1 FG
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Backs catch passes
Seahawks give up 41 yards a game to running backs (27th), against a league average of 32. Buccaneers' running backs produce 31 (13th).
Deep middle is open
Seahawks are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +0.37 EPA per attempt. Buccaneers send 3% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Ground game stalls
Buccaneers average 3.8 yards per carry (27th). Seahawks allow 3.5 (1st).
Explosive play rate
Call this one even. Buccaneers create explosive plays on 10% of snaps (15th). Seahawks give them up at 8% (2nd).
The Buccaneers lead the series 7–5 since 1999. They have won the last 2. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 5 | TB 38 at SEA 35 |
| 2022 · Wk 10 | SEA 16 at TB 21 |
| 2019 · Wk 9 · OT | TB 34 at SEA 40 |
| 2016 · Wk 12 | SEA 5 at TB 14 |
| 2013 · Wk 9 · OT | TB 24 at SEA 27 |
2025 records
| Buccaneers | Seahawks | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8–9 | 14–3 |
| Division | 3–3 | 4–2 |
| Conference | 6–6 | 9–3 |
| Other conference | 2–3 | 5–0 |
| Home | 4–4 | 6–2 |
| Away | 4–5 | 8–1 |
| Last 5 | LLLLW | WWWWW |
| Streak | Won 1 | Won 7 |
| Points a game | 22.4 – 24.2 | 28.4 – 17.2 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Buccaneers' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | TB off | Favors TB · Favors SEA | SEA def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.01#19 | -0.12#2 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 42%#24 | 40%#3 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.2#24 | 4.8#4 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 10%#15 | 8%#2 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.02#22 | -0.12#5 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 6%#16 | 7%#11 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.08#24 | -0.19#1 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 3.8#27 | 3.5#1 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 42%#12 | 34%#1 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 56%#24 | 54%#6 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 155#9 | 118#5 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 35#32 | 63#27 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 5.1#32 | 8.3#27 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 31#13 | 41#27 | 32 | |
Buccaneers: EPA per throw
Seahawks: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.