2025
Week 5 · Sunday 4:05 PM ET · Lumen Field
vs
Seahawks offensevsBuccaneers defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 20 games for Seahawks, 17 for Buccaneers. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Buccaneers won 38–35 from as low as 12% (Q4 3:18, down 35–28). The Seahawks had been 63% favorites at kickoff. The game turned for good at Q4 0:58: S.Darnold pass short middle intended for C.Kupp INTERCEPTED by L.David (L.Hall) at SEA 38. L.David to SEA 35 for 3 yards (G.Zabel) (28% → 77%).
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 0:58TBS.Darnold pass short middle intended for C.Kupp INTERCEPTED by L.David (L.Hall) at SEA 38. L.David to SEA 35 for 3 yards (G.Zabel).turning point28% → 77%
- 2Q3 1:37TBB.Mayfield pass deep left to E.Egbuka to SEA 2 for 57 yards (C.Bryant).42% → 66%
- 3Q4 3:25SEAS.Darnold pass deep left to T.Horton for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN.66% → 87%
- 4Q3 7:56TBB.Mayfield pass deep right to E.Egbuka for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN.44% → 63%
- 5Q1 4:10TBJ.Myers 44 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left38% → 54%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
B.Mayfield led the Buccaneers at +25.7 EPA (29 of 33 for 379). S.Darnold led the Seahawks at +23.4 EPA (28 of 34 for 341).
Buccaneers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Mayfield100% | 29/33 | 379 | 2 | 1 | +26.0 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R.White80% | 14 | 58% | 41 | 2 | +0.3 |
| B.Mayfield100% | 5 | 21% | 15 | -0.3 | |
| S.Tucker21% | 3 | 13% | 3 | -1.6 | |
| S.Shepard41% | 1 | 4% | -5 | -1.1 | |
| K.Johnson11% | 1 | 4% | 2 | -0.4 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E.Egbuka85% | 7 | 22% | 7 | 163 | 1 | +17.1 |
| S.Shepard41% | 5 | 16% | 4 | 24 | 1 | +0.1 |
| C.Otton92% | 5 | 16% | 4 | 81 | +6.7 | |
| C.Jr.77% | 4 | 13% | 3 | 26 | +1.8 | |
| R.White80% | 4 | 13% | 4 | 30 | +1.3 | |
| T.Johnson36% | 4 | 13% | 4 | 59 | +4.2 | |
| S.Tucker21% | 3 | 9% | 3 | -4 | -2.8 |
Defense L.David 1 INT · Kicking C.McLaughlin 3/3 FG (long 39)
Seahawks
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S.Darnold100% | 28/34 | 341 | 4 | 1 | +23.4 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.III44% | 10 | 50% | 86 | +2.4 | |
| Z.Charbonnet56% | 9 | 45% | 36 | 1 | +1.5 |
| J.Milroe2% | 1 | 5% | 0 | -5.4 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Kupp89% | 9 | 26% | 6 | 59 | -0.7 | |
| J.Smith-Njigba90% | 9 | 26% | 8 | 132 | 1 | +11.0 |
| A.Barner80% | 7 | 21% | 7 | 53 | 2 | +6.0 |
| T.Horton49% | 4 | 12% | 3 | 39 | 1 | +4.7 |
| Z.Charbonnet56% | 2 | 6% | 1 | 12 | -0.7 | |
| D.Young7% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 36 | +2.6 | |
| K.III44% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 0 | -0.6 | |
| E.Arroyo43% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 10 | +1.1 |
Defense U.Nwosu 0.5 sacks, D.Bell 0.5 sacks · Kicking J.Myers 0/1 FG
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Wideouts feast
Buccaneers give up 148 yards a game to wide receivers (22nd), against a league average of 140. Seahawks' wide receivers produce 168 (4th).
Deep middle is open
Buccaneers are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +1.01 EPA per attempt. Seahawks send 3% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Nowhere to run
Seahawks' run game is 21st in EPA per carry (-0.06). Buccaneers allow -0.11 (5th).
EPA per play
Call this one even. Seahawks average +0.04 EPA per play (10th). Buccaneers allow +0.02 (17th). League average is +0.01.
The Buccaneers lead the series 7–5 since 1999. They have won the last 2. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 5 | TB 38 at SEA 35 |
| 2022 · Wk 10 | SEA 16 at TB 21 |
| 2019 · Wk 9 · OT | TB 34 at SEA 40 |
| 2016 · Wk 12 | SEA 5 at TB 14 |
| 2013 · Wk 9 · OT | TB 24 at SEA 27 |
2025 records
| Buccaneers | Seahawks | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8–9 | 14–3 |
| Division | 3–3 | 4–2 |
| Conference | 6–6 | 9–3 |
| Other conference | 2–3 | 5–0 |
| Home | 4–4 | 6–2 |
| Away | 4–5 | 8–1 |
| Last 5 | LLLLW | WWWWW |
| Streak | Won 1 | Won 7 |
| Points a game | 22.4 – 24.2 | 28.4 – 17.2 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Buccaneers' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | SEA off | Favors SEA · Favors TB | TB def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.04#10 | +0.02#17 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 46%#8 | 45%#20 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.9#7 | 5.8#24 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 11%#7 | 10%#19 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.13#7 | +0.07#20 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 5%#11 | 6%#21 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.06#21 | -0.11#5 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.2#17 | 4.1#15 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 43%#10 | 40%#13 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 57%#21 | 65%#27 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 168#4 | 148#22 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 40#27 | 57#22 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 5.5#30 | 7.5#21 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 29#16 | 51#32 | 32 | |
Seahawks: EPA per throw
Buccaneers: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.