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2025 season · Oct 30 to Nov 3 · 14 games · byes: CLE, NYJ, PHI, TB

Week 9 in review

What happened this week: every game's swings in one strip, the plays that decided them, the offenses and defenses that had their day, the players who carried them, and whose role moved.

14 of 14 final
The short version
  • UpsetThe Panthers beat the Packers 16–13 as a 13% underdog at kickoff, the longest odds anyone overcame this week.
  • ComebackThe Panthers were down to 8% against the Packers and won 16–13.
  • WildestBears at Bengals: the lead changed hands 7 times; the Bears won 47–42, and the biggest swing was 55 points at Q4 0:25.
  • Best offenseThe Bears: +0.45 EPA a play against the Bengals, +0.40 against their usual.
  • Best defenseThe Rams held the Saints to −0.32 EPA a play, −0.28 against what they usually allow.
  • PlayerSam Darnold (SEA QB): +22.4 EPA, 21/24, 330 yds, 4 TD, 1 INT.

The gamesevery final with its win-probability line

Scoreboard · Week 9
Games final14 of 14
Overtime1
Comebacks5
Upsets6
Points683
Biggest swing55 pts
BALRavens28MIADolphins6
Biggest swing 11 pts · Q1 9:46
Led all the way
CHIBears47CINBengals42
Biggest swing 55 pts · Q4 0:25
MINVikings27DETLions24
Biggest swing 20 pts · Q4 6:29
Upset · 24% at kickoffComeback from 11%
CARPanthers16GBPackers13
Biggest swing 33 pts · Q4 0:01
Upset · 13% at kickoffComeback from 8%
DENBroncos18HOUTexans15
Biggest swing 18 pts · Q4 1:21
Upset · 46% at kickoffComeback from 13%
ATLFalcons23NEPatriots24
Biggest swing 19 pts · Q4 4:44
SF49ers34NYGGiants24
Biggest swing 8 pts · Q1 7:06
INDColts20PITSteelers27
Biggest swing 15 pts · Q2 5:21
Upset · 35% at kickoffComeback from 14%
LACChargers27TENTitans20
Biggest swing 14 pts · Q1 11:25
Led all the way
NOSaints10LARams34
Biggest swing 3 pts · Q1 13:10
Led all the way
JAXJaguars30LVRaiders29
Biggest swing 25 pts · Q4 2:00
Comeback from 24%Overtime
KCChiefs21BUFBills28
Biggest swing 13 pts · Q2 0:46
Upset · 42% at kickoff
SEASeahawks38WASCommanders14
Biggest swing 6 pts · Q1 3:09
Led all the way
ARICardinals27DALCowboys17
Biggest swing 14 pts · Q2 4:04
Upset · 39% at kickoff

Each line is the winner's chance of winning, snap by snap, from nflverse's spread-adjusted model: above the dashed middle (shaded in the winner's color) they were favored, below it (shaded grey) they were behind. Overtime is left off the line, as on the game page. A comeback is a winner who fell below 25%; an upset is a winner who was under 50% at kickoff; lead changes count the score changing hands. Click a game for the full chart, the box score and the plays that swung it.

The playsthe ones that moved games, and the ones that moved the ball

The biggest swingspoints of win probability, for the team they helped
  1. 1CHIBears · Q4 0:25 · CHI at CINC.Williams pass deep middle to C.Loveland for 58 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+5542% → 97%
  2. 2CARPanthers · Q4 0:01 · CAR at GBR.Fitzgerald 49 yard field goal is GOOD+3367% → 100%
  3. 3LVRaiders · Q4 2:00 · JAX at LVG.Smith pass short middle to B.Bowers for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+2543% → 68%
  4. 4MINVikings · Q4 6:29 · MIN at DETJ.Bates 45 yard field goal is BLOCKED (L.Rodriguez), RECOVERED by MIN-I.Rodgers at MIN 33. I.Rodgers pushed ob at DET 26 for 41 yards (J.Fox).+2071% → 91%
  5. 5CINBengals · Q1 15:00 · CHI at CINC.Santos kicks 63 yards from CHI 35 to CIN 2. C.Jones for 98 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+2040% → 60%
  6. 6ATLFalcons · Q4 4:44 · ATL at NEM.Penix pass short right to D.London for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+1920% → 39%
  7. 7CARPanthers · Q4 0:46 · CAR at GBR.Dowdle right guard to GB 31 for 19 yards (X.McKinney).+1857% → 75%
  8. 8CINBengals · Q2 1:18 · CHI at CINJ.Flacco pass deep left to T.Higgins for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+1832% → 50%
  9. 9CARPanthers · Q4 11:00 · CAR at GBJ.Love pass incomplete short right to R.Doubs [N.Scourton].+1858% → 76%
  10. 10HOUTexans · Q4 1:21 · DEN at HOUJ.Crawshaw punts 37 yards to HOU 13, fair catch by J.Noel.+1847% → 65%
The best plays by EPAexpected points added on one snap
  1. 1CHIBears · Q4 0:25 · vs CIN · Colston LovelandC.Williams pass deep middle to C.Loveland for 58 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+6.5EPA
  2. 2DETLions · Q1 12:51 · vs MIN · Sam LaPortaJ.Goff pass deep middle to S.LaPorta for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+6.0EPA
  3. 3SEASeahawks · Q2 4:44 · vs WAS · Cody WhiteS.Darnold pass deep right to C.White for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ** Injury Update: WAS-T.Amos has returned to the game.+5.2EPA
  4. 4KCChiefs · Q4 14:20 · vs BUF · Rashee RiceP.Mahomes pass deep left to R.Rice pushed ob at BUF 11 for 29 yards.+5.1EPA
  5. 5GBPackers · Q2 12:08 · vs CAR · Christian WatsonJ.Love pass deep right to C.Watson to CAR 30 for 52 yards.+4.9EPA
  6. 6NEPatriots · Q2 6:19 · vs ATL · DeMario DouglasD.Maye pass deep left to D.Douglas to ATL 11 for 58 yards.+4.6EPA
  7. 7CINBengals · Q2 1:18 · vs CHI · Tee HigginsJ.Flacco pass deep left to T.Higgins for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+4.5EPA
  8. 8ATLFalcons · Q4 4:44 · vs NE · Drake LondonM.Penix pass short right to D.London for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+4.3EPA
  9. 9MIADolphins · Q4 11:39 · vs BAL · Jaylen WaddleT.Tagovailoa pass short right to J.Waddle ran ob at BAL 25 for 13 yards.+4.1EPA
  10. 10DENBroncos · Q2 4:58 · vs HOU · Courtland SuttonB.Nix pass deep left to C.Sutton for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN [D.Hunter].+4.0EPA

Teamswho had their day, by EPA a play

OffensesEPA a play this week, against their season
1CHIBearsat CIN · W 47–42+0.45+0.40 vs usual
2SEASeahawksat WAS · W 38–14+0.45+0.42 vs usual
3SF49ersat NYG · W 34–24+0.33+0.28 vs usual
4LARamsvs NO · W 34–10+0.27+0.13 vs usual
5BUFBillsvs KC · W 28–21+0.23+0.10 vs usual
6CINBengalsvs CHI · L 42–47+0.23+0.26 vs usual
7BALRavensat MIA · W 28–6+0.21+0.19 vs usual
8NYGGiantsvs SF · L 24–34+0.17+0.17 vs usual
9JAXJaguarsat LV · W 30–29+0.16+0.14 vs usual
10LVRaidersvs JAX · L 29–30+0.14+0.38 vs usual
11ARICardinalsat DAL · W 27–17+0.11+0.14 vs usual
12CARPanthersat GB · W 16–13+0.10+0.14 vs usual
13LACChargersat TEN · W 27–20+0.08+0.13 vs usual
14ATLFalconsat NE · L 23–24+0.07+0.10 vs usual
15GBPackersvs CAR · L 13–16+0.04−0.08 vs usual
16KCChiefsat BUF · L 21–28+0.040.00 vs usual
17NEPatriotsvs ATL · W 24–23+0.01−0.08 vs usual
18DETLionsvs MIN · L 24–27−0.01−0.10 vs usual
19WASCommandersvs SEA · L 14–38−0.02−0.03 vs usual
20MINVikingsat DET · W 27–24−0.02+0.10 vs usual
21DENBroncosat HOU · W 18–15−0.09−0.13 vs usual
22DALCowboysvs ARI · L 17–27−0.11−0.22 vs usual
23PITSteelersvs IND · W 27–20−0.11−0.12 vs usual
24INDColtsat PIT · L 20–27−0.12−0.21 vs usual
25HOUTexansvs DEN · L 15–18−0.15−0.13 vs usual
26TENTitansvs LAC · L 20–27−0.18−0.02 vs usual
27MIADolphinsvs BAL · L 6–28−0.20−0.20 vs usual
28NOSaintsat LA · L 10–34−0.32−0.24 vs usual

EPA a play counts every pass and run in the game, scrambles and sacks included. "Vs usual" compares it with the same team's average in its other games this season, so a good offense having an ordinary day reads as a dip. Each team links to its offense or defense tab.

Playersthe best games by position, by EPA

Quarterbackspassing and rushing EPA this week
  1. 114Sam DarnoldSEA vs WAS · 21/24, 330 yds, 4 TD, 1 INT+22.4
  2. 216Joe FlaccoCIN vs CHI · 31/47, 470 yds, 4 TD, 2 INT+16.7
  3. 318Caleb WilliamsCHI vs CIN · 20/34, 280 yds, 3 TD · 5-53 rush+16.1
  4. 410Mac JonesSF vs NYG · 19/24, 235 yds, 2 TD · 4-4 rush+14.4
  5. 517Josh AllenBUF vs KC · 23/26, 273 yds, 1 TD · 6-19 rush+14.0
  6. 67Geno SmithLV vs JAX · 29/39, 284 yds, 4 TD, 1 INT · 5-9 rush+11.1
  7. 78Lamar JacksonBAL vs MIA · 18/23, 204 yds, 4 TD · 5-14 rush+9.4
  8. 86Jaxson DartNYG vs SF · 24/33, 191 yds, 2 TD · 8-56 rush+8.7
Backsrushing and receiving EPA this week
  1. 125Kyle MonangaiCHI vs CIN · 26 car, 176 yds · 3-22 rec+9.0
  2. 21Travis EtienneJAX vs LV · 22 car, 84 yds · 5-31 rec+7.0
  3. 323Christian McCaffreySF vs NYG · 28 car, 106 yds, 1 TD · 5-67 rec+6.2
  4. 433Aaron JonesMIN vs DET · 9 car, 78 yds · 2-20 rec+5.8
  5. 523Kyren WilliamsLA vs NO · 25 car, 114 yds, 1 TD+5.4
  6. 63Brian RobinsonSF vs NYG · 5 car, 53 yds, 1 TD+5.2
  7. 75Rico DowdleCAR vs GB · 25 car, 130 yds, 2 TD · 2-11 rec+4.3
  8. 836Chris Rodriguez Jr.WAS vs SEA · 12 car, 65 yds, 1 TD+4.2
Fantasy pointsthe week's top scorers
  1. 118Caleb WilliamsCHI vs CIN · QB36.7
  2. 289Brock BowersLV vs JAX · TE31.3
  3. 316Joe FlaccoCIN vs CHI · QB30.7
  4. 45Drake LondonATL vs NE · WR29.8
  5. 523Christian McCaffreySF vs NYG · RB29.3
  6. 617Josh AllenBUF vs KC · QB28.8
  7. 710Justin HerbertLAC vs TEN · QB27.7
  8. 86Jaxson DartNYG vs SF · QB27.2
  9. 914Sam DarnoldSEA vs WAS · QB27.2
  10. 109Matthew StaffordLA vs NO · QB26.8
  11. 117Geno SmithLV vs JAX · QB26.3
  12. 125Rico DowdleCAR vs GB · RB26.1
  13. 135Tee HigginsCIN vs CHI · WR26.1
  14. 148Lamar JacksonBAL vs MIA · QB25.6
  15. 157Jacoby BrissettARI vs DAL · QB24.8
  16. 1684Colston LovelandCHI vs CIN · TE23.8
  1. 118Caleb WilliamsCHI vs CIN · QB37.7
  2. 289Brock BowersLV vs JAX · TE37.3
  3. 35Drake LondonATL vs NE · WR34.3
  4. 423Christian McCaffreySF vs NYG · RB31.8
  5. 516Joe FlaccoCIN vs CHI · QB30.7
  6. 65Tee HigginsCIN vs CHI · WR29.6
  7. 717Josh AllenBUF vs KC · QB28.8
  8. 810Justin HerbertLAC vs TEN · QB27.7
  9. 96Jaxson DartNYG vs SF · QB27.2
  10. 1014Sam DarnoldSEA vs WAS · QB27.2
  11. 115Rico DowdleCAR vs GB · RB27.1
  12. 1284Colston LovelandCHI vs CIN · TE26.8
  13. 139Matthew StaffordLA vs NO · QB26.8
  14. 147Geno SmithLV vs JAX · QB26.3
  15. 158Lamar JacksonBAL vs MIA · QB25.6
  16. 167Jacoby BrissettARI vs DAL · QB24.8
  1. 189Brock BowersLV vs JAX · TE43.3
  2. 25Drake LondonATL vs NE · WR38.8
  3. 318Caleb WilliamsCHI vs CIN · QB38.7
  4. 423Christian McCaffreySF vs NYG · RB34.3
  5. 55Tee HigginsCIN vs CHI · WR33.1
  6. 616Joe FlaccoCIN vs CHI · QB30.7
  7. 784Colston LovelandCHI vs CIN · TE29.8
  8. 817Josh AllenBUF vs KC · QB28.8
  9. 95Rico DowdleCAR vs GB · RB28.1
  10. 1010Justin HerbertLAC vs TEN · QB27.7
  11. 116Jaxson DartNYG vs SF · QB27.2
  12. 1214Sam DarnoldSEA vs WAS · QB27.2
  13. 139Matthew StaffordLA vs NO · QB26.8
  14. 147Geno SmithLV vs JAX · QB26.3
  15. 158Lamar JacksonBAL vs MIA · QB25.6
  16. 167Jacoby BrissettARI vs DAL · QB24.8
Wide receiversreceiving EPA this week
  1. 15Tee HigginsCIN vs CHI · 7/9, 121 yds, 2 TD+11.6
  2. 25Drake LondonATL vs NE · 9/14, 118 yds, 3 TD+11.4
  3. 318Marvin Harrison Jr.ARI vs DAL · 7/10, 96 yds, 1 TD+7.8
  4. 43DeMario DouglasNE vs ATL · 4/6, 100 yds, 1 TD+7.6
  5. 517Jaylen WaddleMIA vs BAL · 6/9, 82 yds+7.3
  6. 611Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA vs WAS · 8/9, 129 yds+6.8
  7. 715Tory HortonSEA vs WAS · 4/4, 48 yds, 2 TD+6.5
  8. 817Davante AdamsLA vs NO · 5/7, 60 yds, 2 TD+5.8
Tight endsreceiving EPA this week
  1. 189Brock BowersLV vs JAX · 12/13, 127 yds, 3 TD+12.9
  2. 284Colston LovelandCHI vs CIN · 6/7, 118 yds, 2 TD+10.5
  3. 387Sam LaPortaDET vs MIN · 6/8, 97 yds, 1 TD+9.6
  4. 486Dalton KincaidBUF vs KC · 6/6, 101 yds, 1 TD+8.6
  5. 589Mark AndrewsBAL vs MIA · 2/3, 22 yds, 2 TD+6.5
  6. 686Oronde Gadsden IILAC vs TEN · 5/5, 68 yds+5.8
  7. 787Travis KelceKC vs BUF · 4/5, 66 yds+5.8
  8. 818Terrance FergusonLA vs NO · 2/3, 54 yds+4.4

Moverswhose role broke from his own season

Movers · Week 9 · against his own season360 played

The biggest swing in snaps in Week 9: Tyler Shough (Saints) took 90% of the snaps, up 61 points on his season; Marcus Mariota (Commanders) fell to 12% from 83.

Snap sharepoints of the snaps

▲ Climbers
6Tyler ShoughNO · QB+61 pts29% → 90%7Jacoby BrissettARI · QB+49 pts52% → 100%29Kareem HuntKC · RB+43 pts35% → 78%32TreVeyon HendersonNE · RB+43 pts32% → 75%38Nick VannettMIN · TE+42 pts2% → 44%
▼ Fallers
8Marcus MariotaWAS · QB−71 pts83% → 12%7C.J. StroudHOU · QB−65 pts97% → 32%1Jalen TolbertDAL · WR−54 pts64% → 10%85Cole KmetCHI · TE−52 pts78% → 26%88Jake TongesSF · TE−48 pts54% → 6%

Target sharepoints of team targets, QBs excluded

▲ Climbers
30Chase BrownCIN · RB+19 pts12% → 31%22Rashid ShaheedNO · WR+17 pts20% → 38%18Marvin Harrison Jr.ARI · WR+17 pts18% → 35%87John BatesWAS · TE+17 pts2% → 19%11Parker WashingtonJAX · WR+14 pts13% → 27%
▼ Fallers
1Ja'Marr ChaseCIN · WR−18 pts35% → 18%15Rome OdunzeCHI · WR−16 pts25% → 9%12Chris OlaveNO · WR−13 pts30% → 17%85Tucker KraftGB · TE−12 pts20% → 9%88Jake TongesSF · TE−11 pts11% → 0%

EPAthe week against his per-game average

▲ Climbers
16Joe FlaccoCIN · QB+21.4 EPA-4.6 → +16.714Sam DarnoldSEA · QB+15.1 EPA+7.3 → +22.47Geno SmithLV · QB+15.0 EPA-3.6 → +11.45Drake LondonATL · WR+12.3 EPA-0.9 → +11.418Caleb WilliamsCHI · QB+11.8 EPA+2.2 → +14.0
▼ Fallers
17Daniel JonesIND · QB−26.6 EPA+10.4 → -16.34Dak PrescottDAL · QB−12.6 EPA+8.1 → -4.515Patrick MahomesKC · QB−10.7 EPA+9.0 → -1.710Drake MayeNE · QB−9.4 EPA+9.8 → +0.487Michael MayerLV · TE−8.9 EPA+0.4 → -8.5
New faces10Davis MillsHOU · QB · first start-level week, 68% of the snaps81Austin TrammellJAX · WR · debut, 28% of the snaps82Cody WhiteSEA · WR · first start-level week, 71% of the snaps13Treylon BurksWAS · WR · debut, 51% of the snaps

Each row compares his last full week with his average over the games he had played before it, so a mover broke from his own pattern. Boards list the 5 biggest climbers, then the 5 biggest fallers, past a floor (12 points of snap share, 6 of target share, 4.0 EPA). The sparkline is his season; the dot is that week. New faces took their first snap that week with 25% or more, or passed 50% for the first time.