2025
Week 9 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · NRG Stadium
vs
Broncos offensevsTexans defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 19 games for Broncos, 19 for Texans. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Broncos won 18–15 from as low as 13% (Q3 3:02, down 15–7). The Texans had been 54% favorites at kickoff. The game turned for good at Q4 1:00: T.Townsend punts 55 yards to DEN 28 M.Bandy to DEN 36 for 8 yards (J.Hansen) (48% → 64%). The biggest single swing came at Q4 1:21, 18 points for the Texans.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 1:21HOUJ.Crawshaw punts 37 yards to HOU 13, fair catch by J.Noel.47% → 65%
- 2Q4 0:44DENB.Nix scrambles left end ran ob at HOU 36 for 25 yards (M.Stewart).63% → 80%
- 3Q4 1:00DENT.Townsend punts 55 yards to DEN 28 M.Bandy to DEN 36 for 8 yards (J.Hansen).turning point48% → 64%
- 4Q2 0:46HOUT.Townsend punts 42 yards to DEN 25 M.Bandy MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by HOU-J.Smith at DEN 30.61% → 77%
- 5Q4 2:18DENB.Nix pass short middle to P.Bryant to DEN 48 for 13 yards (M.Stewart).51% → 66%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
P.Bryant led the Broncos at +2.9 EPA (2 catches for 20). N.Collins led the Texans at +4.1 EPA (7 catches for 75).
Broncos
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Nix100% | 18/37 | 173 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -3.5 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Dobbins46% | 15 | 65% | 61 | -1.7 | |
| B.Nix100% | 3 | 13% | 36 | +1.8 | |
| T.Franklin79% | 2 | 9% | -4 | -1.1 | |
| R.Harvey32% | 2 | 9% | 5 | -0.9 | |
| A.Prentice16% | 1 | 4% | 2 | -0.2 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Franklin79% | 10 | 29% | 4 | 27 | -2.4 | |
| C.Sutton92% | 6 | 18% | 1 | 30 | 1 | -2.7 |
| R.Harvey32% | 5 | 15% | 5 | 51 | 1 | +2.8 |
| E.Engram51% | 3 | 9% | 0 | 0 | -3.2 | |
| T.Badie22% | 3 | 9% | 2 | 6 | -0.8 | |
| P.Bryant57% | 3 | 9% | 2 | 20 | +2.9 | |
| A.Trautman73% | 2 | 6% | 2 | 25 | +1.0 | |
| J.Dobbins46% | 1 | 3% | 1 | -2 | -0.7 | |
| M.Bandy10% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 16 | +2.1 |
Defense D.Greenlaw 1 sack, Z.Allen 1 sack, J.Cooper 1 sack, M.Roach 0.5 sacks · Kicking W.Lutz 1/2 FG (long 34)
Texans
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Mills68% | 17/30 | 137 | 2 | -5.7 | ||
| C.Stroud32% | 6/10 | 79 | 2 | +3.1 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N.Chubb36% | 11 | 39% | 34 | -3.0 | |
| W.Marks48% | 10 | 36% | 27 | -3.6 | |
| D.Mills68% | 2 | 7% | 7 | -0.2 | |
| C.Stroud32% | 2 | 7% | 12 | +0.9 | |
| B.Brooks15% | 2 | 7% | 0 | -1.4 | |
| J.Noel15% | 1 | 4% | -3 | -0.8 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N.Collins79% | 11 | 28% | 7 | 75 | +4.1 | |
| D.Schultz79% | 8 | 21% | 6 | 77 | +1.8 | |
| C.Kirk56% | 8 | 21% | 4 | 26 | +0.3 | |
| X.Hutchinson63% | 5 | 13% | 3 | 30 | +1.1 | |
| W.Marks48% | 3 | 8% | 0 | 0 | -1.7 | |
| H.Bryant27% | 2 | 5% | 1 | 2 | -1.0 | |
| D.Ogunbowale16% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 2 | -1.4 | |
| J.Higgins48% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 4 | -0.1 |
Defense C.Bullock 1 INT, W.Jr. 1 sack · Kicking K.Fairbairn 5/6 FG (long 41)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Backs catch passes
Texans give up 31 yards a game to running backs (18th), against a league average of 32. Broncos' running backs produce 36 (8th).
Deep left is open
Texans are worst against deep left throws, allowing +0.68 EPA per attempt. Broncos send 8% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Tight ends go quiet
Texans give up 43 yards a game to tight ends (5th), against a league average of 53. Broncos' tight ends produce 39 (28th).
Explosive play rate
Call this one even. Broncos create explosive plays on 9% of snaps (20th). Texans give them up at 8% (8th).
The Broncos lead the series 7–4 since 1999 (they first met in 2004). This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 9 | DEN 18 at HOU 15 |
| 2023 · Wk 13 | DEN 17 at HOU 22 |
| 2022 · Wk 2 | HOU 9 at DEN 16 |
| 2019 · Wk 14 | DEN 38 at HOU 24 |
| 2018 · Wk 9 | HOU 19 at DEN 17 |
2025 records
| Broncos | Texans | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14–3 | 12–5 |
| Division | 5–1 | 5–1 |
| Conference | 9–3 | 10–2 |
| Other conference | 5–0 | 2–3 |
| Home | 8–1 | 7–2 |
| Away | 6–2 | 5–3 |
| Last 5 | WWLWW | WWWWW |
| Streak | Won 2 | Won 9 |
| Points a game | 23.6 – 18.3 | 23.8 – 17.4 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Broncos' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | DEN off | Favors DEN · Favors HOU | HOU def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.03#14 | -0.16#1 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 43%#17 | 37%#2 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.3#17 | 4.7#2 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 9%#20 | 8%#8 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.05#12 | -0.22#1 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 4%#1 | 9%#6 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.06#19 | -0.16#2 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.2#18 | 3.5#2 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 42%#11 | 36%#6 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 58%#16 | 60%#21 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 153#12 | 128#10 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 39#28 | 43#5 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 6.5#18 | 7.0#13 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 36#8 | 31#18 | 32 | |
Broncos: EPA per throw
Texans: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.