2025
Week 9 · Sunday 4:05 PM ET · SoFi Stadium
vs
Saints offensevsRams defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Saints, 20 for Rams. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Rams won 34–10 and were favored the whole way, never below 87%. The biggest single swing came at Q1 13:10, 3 points for the Rams.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q1 13:10LAK.Kroeger punts 49 yards to LA 12 X.Smith to LA 12 for no gain (I.Yiadom).87% → 90%
- 2Q1 11:37LAM.Stafford pass short right to D.Allen pushed ob at NO 33 for 16 yards (J.Sanker).92% → 95%
- 3Q1 9:44LAK.Williams up the middle to NO 23 for 4 yards (J.Reid).92% → 94%
- 4Q1 12:44LAM.Stafford pass short right to P.Nacua to LA 31 for 9 yards (P.Werner).88% → 90%
- 5Q1 13:01NOM.Stafford pass short right to P.Nacua pushed ob at LA 22 for 10 yards (K.McKinstry).10% → 12%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
J.Johnson led the Saints at +3.8 EPA (3 catches for 31). M.Stafford led the Rams at +8.7 EPA (24 of 32 for 281).
Saints
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Shough90% | 15/24 | 176 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -0.1 |
| T.Hill22% | 0/1 | 0 | -0.7 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.Kamara59% | 6 | 43% | 14 | -8.3 | |
| T.Hill22% | 4 | 29% | 30 | -2.6 | |
| D.Neal39% | 3 | 21% | 11 | -0.7 | |
| T.Shough90% | 1 | 7% | 2 | -0.3 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R.Shaheed83% | 9 | 38% | 5 | 68 | -3.6 | |
| J.Johnson71% | 4 | 17% | 3 | 31 | 1 | +3.8 |
| C.Olave88% | 4 | 17% | 3 | 57 | +2.8 | |
| B.Cooks56% | 3 | 13% | 2 | 16 | +1.7 | |
| A.Kamara59% | 3 | 13% | 1 | 3 | -2.5 | |
| D.Neal39% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 1 | -0.7 |
Defense J.Williams 1 sack, C.Young 1 sack · Kicking B.Grupe 1/1 FG (long 39)
Rams
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M.Stafford100% | 24/32 | 281 | 4 | 2 | +11.8 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.Williams69% | 25 | 58% | 114 | 1 | +5.4 |
| B.Corum28% | 13 | 30% | 58 | +0.2 | |
| M.Stafford100% | 4 | 9% | -4 | -3.1 | |
| P.Nacua49% | 1 | 2% | 3 | +2.0 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P.Nacua49% | 8 | 26% | 7 | 95 | 1 | +5.5 |
| D.Adams60% | 7 | 23% | 5 | 60 | 2 | +5.8 |
| T.Higbee52% | 4 | 13% | 3 | 13 | 1 | +0.2 |
| D.Allen59% | 4 | 13% | 3 | 37 | +0.4 | |
| X.Smith16% | 3 | 10% | 2 | 12 | -0.4 | |
| T.Ferguson30% | 3 | 10% | 2 | 54 | +4.4 | |
| C.Parkinson56% | 2 | 6% | 2 | 10 | -0.4 |
Defense E.Forbes 1 INT, B.Fiske 1 sack · Kicking J.Karty 0/1 FG
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Wideouts feast
Rams give up 159 yards a game to wide receivers (25th), against a league average of 140. Saints' wide receivers produce 146 (15th).
Deep middle is open
Rams are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +0.60 EPA per attempt. Saints send 2% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Nowhere to run
Saints' run game is 31st in EPA per carry (-0.15). Rams allow -0.09 (7th).
Success rate
Call this one even. Saints succeed on 42% of plays (25th) against a defense that allows 43% (12th).
The Rams lead the series 14–9 since 1999. They have won the last 3. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 9 | NO 10 at LA 34 |
| 2024 · Wk 13 | LA 21 at NO 14 |
| 2023 · Wk 16 | NO 22 at LA 30 |
| 2022 · Wk 11 | LA 20 at NO 27 |
| 2019 · Wk 2 | NO 9 at LA 27 |
2025 records
| Saints | Rams | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6–11 | 12–5 |
| Division | 3–3 | 4–2 |
| Conference | 4–8 | 7–5 |
| Other conference | 2–3 | 5–0 |
| Home | 3–5 | 7–1 |
| Away | 3–6 | 5–4 |
| Last 5 | WWWWL | WWLLW |
| Streak | Lost 1 | Won 1 |
| Points a game | 18.0 – 22.5 | 30.5 – 20.4 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Saints' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | NO off | Favors NO · Favors LA | LA def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.09#27 | -0.05#11 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 42%#25 | 43%#12 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.0#27 | 5.3#14 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 6%#32 | 8%#9 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.07#27 | -0.05#11 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 8%#22 | 7%#15 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.15#31 | -0.09#7 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 3.5#31 | 4.0#11 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 40%#19 | 38%#10 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 43%#32 | 57%#13 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 146#15 | 159#25 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 60#9 | 45#7 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 7.4#15 | 7.5#19 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 25#24 | 39#26 | 32 | |
Saints: EPA per throw
Rams: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.