2025
Week 9 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · Acrisure Stadium
vs
Colts offensevsSteelers defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Colts, 18 for Steelers. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Steelers won 27–20 from as low as 14% (Q2 12:03, down 7–0). The Colts had been 65% favorites at kickoff. The game turned for good at Q2 4:27: A.Rodgers pass short middle to P.Freiermuth for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN (49% → 56%). The biggest single swing came at Q2 5:21, 15 points for the Steelers.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q2 5:21INDD.Jones pass short middle intended for J.Downs INTERCEPTED by P.Wilson at IND 31. P.Wilson to IND 14 for 17 yards (T.Bortolini).34% → 49%
- 2Q1 6:03PITC.Waitman punts 56 yards to IND 22 J.Downs MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by PIT-B.Echols at IND 11.16% → 29%
- 3Q3 3:15INDD.Jones pass short left intended for M.Pittman INTERCEPTED by J.Sawyer (P.Wilson) at PIT 40. J.Sawyer to PIT 44 for 4 yards (D.Jones).70% → 82%
- 4Q3 4:28INDD.Jones pass short left to M.Pittman to PIT 44 for 16 yards (J.Ramsey).21% → 30%
- 5Q1 8:07INDD.Jones up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.72% → 81%
- ★Q2 4:27PITA.Rodgers pass short middle to P.Freiermuth for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.turning point49% → 56%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. Each play is tagged with the team that had the ball; the bar names the team it helped. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
M.Pittman led the Colts at +2.5 EPA (9 catches for 115). C.III led the Steelers at +3.6 EPA (5 catches for 56).
Colts
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Jones100% | 31/50 | 342 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -16.3 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Taylor79% | 14 | 74% | 45 | +1.0 | |
| D.Jones100% | 3 | 16% | 4 | 1 | +4.5 |
| A.Abdullah6% | 1 | 5% | 3 | -0.3 | |
| R.Thomas | 1 | 5% | 3 | +2.1 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.Pierce91% | 13 | 27% | 6 | 115 | +1.3 | |
| M.Pittman88% | 12 | 25% | 9 | 115 | +2.5 | |
| J.Downs67% | 9 | 19% | 6 | 57 | 1 | -1.5 |
| T.Warren85% | 7 | 15% | 5 | 26 | -1.2 | |
| J.Taylor79% | 2 | 4% | 2 | 12 | +0.0 | |
| T.Goodson14% | 2 | 4% | 1 | 8 | -0.4 | |
| A.Abdullah6% | 1 | 2% | 1 | 2 | -0.6 | |
| M.Alie-Cox37% | 1 | 2% | 0 | 0 | -0.5 | |
| A.Mitchell5% | 1 | 2% | 1 | 7 | -0.2 |
Defense L.Latu 2.5 sacks, N.Gallimore 0.5 sacks · Kicking M.Badgley 2/2 FG (long 53)
Steelers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.Rodgers100% | 25/35 | 203 | 1 | 3 | +0.0 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Warren56% | 16 | 70% | 31 | 2 | -4.2 |
| K.Gainwell37% | 3 | 13% | -1 | -0.1 | |
| A.Rodgers100% | 2 | 9% | 0 | -0.7 | |
| C.Heyward6% | 1 | 4% | 4 | +1.6 | |
| K.Johnson8% | 1 | 4% | 4 | -0.1 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.III56% | 6 | 17% | 5 | 56 | +3.6 | |
| D.Washington66% | 6 | 17% | 4 | 43 | -0.2 | |
| J.Smith40% | 5 | 14% | 3 | 25 | +0.5 | |
| K.Gainwell37% | 5 | 14% | 4 | 35 | +0.8 | |
| D.Metcalf82% | 4 | 11% | 2 | 6 | -2.2 | |
| P.Freiermuth47% | 4 | 11% | 3 | 27 | 1 | +3.4 |
| J.Warren56% | 2 | 6% | 2 | -2 | -2.6 | |
| R.Wilson47% | 2 | 6% | 1 | 4 | -3.9 | |
| K.Johnson8% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 9 | +0.7 |
Defense J.Jr. 1 sack and 1 INT, A.Highsmith 2 sacks, P.Wilson 1 INT, J.Sawyer 1 INT · Kicking C.Boswell 2/2 FG (long 46)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Run it at them
Colts' run game is 2nd in EPA per carry (+0.06). Steelers allow -0.01 (26th).
Deep middle is open
Steelers are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +1.12 EPA per attempt. Colts send 4% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Checkdowns go nowhere
Steelers give up 30 yards a game to running backs (16th), against a league average of 32. Colts' running backs produce 29 (18th).
Explosive play rate
Call this one even. Colts create explosive plays on 9% of snaps (19th). Steelers give them up at 9% (15th).
The Steelers lead the series 12–4 since 1999 (they first met in 2002). They have won the last 2. Oct 11, 2026, at Acrisure Stadium: the Steelers won 34–22. Aaron Rodgers started at quarterback for the Steelers and Daniel Jones for the Colts; Mike McCarthy and Shane Steichen coached.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 5 | IND 22 at PIT 34 |
| 2025 · Wk 9 | IND 20 at PIT 27 |
| 2024 · Wk 4 | PIT 24 at IND 27 |
| 2023 · Wk 15 | PIT 13 at IND 30 |
| 2022 · Wk 12 | PIT 24 at IND 17 |
2025 records
| Colts | Steelers | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8–9 | 10–7 |
| Division | 2–4 | 4–2 |
| Conference | 6–6 | 8–4 |
| Other conference | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Home | 6–3 | 6–3 |
| Away | 2–6 | 4–4 |
| Last 5 | LLLLL | WWWLW |
| Streak | Lost 7 | Won 1 |
| Points a game | 27.4 – 24.2 | 23.4 – 22.8 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Colts' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | IND off | Favors IND · Favors PIT | PIT def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.08#7 | +0.02#18 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 46%#6 | 44%#15 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.9#8 | 5.6#19 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 9%#19 | 9%#15 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.06#10 | +0.03#17 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 5%#7 | 7%#10 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | +0.06#2 | -0.01#26 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.6#8 | 4.3#19 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 43%#7 | 44%#28 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 68%#3 | 54%#7 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 154#11 | 167#29 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 57#10 | 64#28 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 8.2#9 | 8.3#28 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 29#18 | 30#16 | 32 | |
Colts: EPA per throw
Steelers: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.