2025
Week 9 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · Acrisure Stadium
vs
Steelers offensevsColts defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 18 games for Steelers, 17 for Colts. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Steelers won 27–20 from as low as 14% (Q2 12:03, down 7–0). The Colts had been 65% favorites at kickoff. The game turned for good at Q2 4:27: A.Rodgers pass short middle to P.Freiermuth for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN (49% → 56%). The biggest single swing came at Q2 5:21, 15 points for the Steelers.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q2 5:21PITD.Jones pass short middle intended for J.Downs INTERCEPTED by P.Wilson at IND 31. P.Wilson to IND 14 for 17 yards (T.Bortolini).34% → 49%
- 2Q1 6:03PITC.Waitman punts 56 yards to IND 22 J.Downs MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by PIT-B.Echols at IND 11.16% → 29%
- 3Q3 3:15PITD.Jones pass short left intended for M.Pittman INTERCEPTED by J.Sawyer (P.Wilson) at PIT 40. J.Sawyer to PIT 44 for 4 yards (D.Jones).70% → 82%
- 4Q3 4:28INDD.Jones pass short left to M.Pittman to PIT 44 for 16 yards (J.Ramsey).21% → 30%
- 5Q1 8:07INDD.Jones up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.72% → 81%
- ★Q2 4:27PITA.Rodgers pass short middle to P.Freiermuth for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.turning point49% → 56%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
M.Pittman led the Colts at +2.5 EPA (9 catches for 115). C.III led the Steelers at +3.6 EPA (5 catches for 56).
Colts
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Jones100% | 31/50 | 342 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -16.3 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Taylor79% | 14 | 74% | 45 | +1.0 | |
| D.Jones100% | 3 | 16% | 4 | 1 | +4.5 |
| A.Abdullah6% | 1 | 5% | 3 | -0.3 | |
| R.Thomas | 1 | 5% | 3 | +2.1 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.Pierce91% | 13 | 27% | 6 | 115 | +1.3 | |
| M.Pittman88% | 12 | 25% | 9 | 115 | +2.5 | |
| J.Downs67% | 9 | 19% | 6 | 57 | 1 | -1.5 |
| T.Warren85% | 7 | 15% | 5 | 26 | -1.2 | |
| J.Taylor79% | 2 | 4% | 2 | 12 | +0.0 | |
| T.Goodson14% | 2 | 4% | 1 | 8 | -0.4 | |
| A.Abdullah6% | 1 | 2% | 1 | 2 | -0.6 | |
| M.Alie-Cox37% | 1 | 2% | 0 | 0 | -0.5 | |
| A.Mitchell5% | 1 | 2% | 1 | 7 | -0.2 |
Defense L.Latu 2.5 sacks, N.Gallimore 0.5 sacks · Kicking M.Badgley 2/2 FG (long 53)
Steelers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.Rodgers100% | 25/35 | 203 | 1 | 3 | +0.0 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Warren56% | 16 | 70% | 31 | 2 | -4.2 |
| K.Gainwell37% | 3 | 13% | -1 | -0.1 | |
| A.Rodgers100% | 2 | 9% | 0 | -0.7 | |
| C.Heyward6% | 1 | 4% | 4 | +1.6 | |
| K.Johnson8% | 1 | 4% | 4 | -0.1 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.III56% | 6 | 17% | 5 | 56 | +3.6 | |
| D.Washington66% | 6 | 17% | 4 | 43 | -0.2 | |
| J.Smith40% | 5 | 14% | 3 | 25 | +0.5 | |
| K.Gainwell37% | 5 | 14% | 4 | 35 | +0.8 | |
| D.Metcalf82% | 4 | 11% | 2 | 6 | -2.2 | |
| P.Freiermuth47% | 4 | 11% | 3 | 27 | 1 | +3.4 |
| J.Warren56% | 2 | 6% | 2 | -2 | -2.6 | |
| R.Wilson47% | 2 | 6% | 1 | 4 | -3.9 | |
| K.Johnson8% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 9 | +0.7 |
Defense J.Jr. 1 sack and 1 INT, A.Highsmith 2 sacks, P.Wilson 1 INT, J.Sawyer 1 INT · Kicking C.Boswell 2/2 FG (long 46)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Tight ends feast
Colts give up 8.4 targets a game to tight ends (29th), against a league average of 7.3. Steelers' tight ends produce 8.9 (4th).
Deep left is open
Colts are worst against deep left throws, allowing +0.86 EPA per attempt. Steelers send 6% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Ground game stalls
Steelers average 4.4 yards per carry (12th). Colts allow 3.8 (5th).
EPA per play
Call this one even. Steelers average 0.00 EPA per play (18th). Colts allow +0.00 (16th). League average is +0.01.
The Steelers lead the series 12–4 since 1999 (they first met in 2002). They have won the last 2. Oct 11, 2026, at Acrisure Stadium: the Steelers won 34–22. Aaron Rodgers started at quarterback for the Steelers and Daniel Jones for the Colts; Mike McCarthy and Shane Steichen coached.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 5 | IND 22 at PIT 34 |
| 2025 · Wk 9 | IND 20 at PIT 27 |
| 2024 · Wk 4 | PIT 24 at IND 27 |
| 2023 · Wk 15 | PIT 13 at IND 30 |
| 2022 · Wk 12 | PIT 24 at IND 17 |
2025 records
| Colts | Steelers | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8–9 | 10–7 |
| Division | 2–4 | 4–2 |
| Conference | 6–6 | 8–4 |
| Other conference | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Home | 6–3 | 6–3 |
| Away | 2–6 | 4–4 |
| Last 5 | LLLLL | WWWLW |
| Streak | Lost 7 | Won 1 |
| Points a game | 27.4 – 24.2 | 23.4 – 22.8 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Colts' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | PIT off | Favors PIT · Favors IND | IND def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | 0.00#18 | +0.00#16 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 43%#19 | 45%#23 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.2#21 | 5.4#17 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 9%#23 | 9%#14 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.01#21 | +0.04#18 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 6%#12 | 6%#25 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | 0.00#7 | -0.09#8 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.4#12 | 3.8#5 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 40%#17 | 44%#25 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 59%#15 | 56%#12 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 101#29 | 168#31 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 62#7 | 70#31 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 8.9#4 | 8.4#29 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 48#3 | 24#4 | 32 | |
Steelers: EPA per throw
Colts: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.