2025
Week 9 · Sunday 4:05 PM ET · Allegiant Stadium
vs
Jaguars offensevsRaiders defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 18 games for Jaguars, 17 for Raiders. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Jaguars won 30–29 from as low as 24% (Q4 0:20, down 23–20). Tied 23–23 after regulation, they won it in overtime at OT 0:20: G.Smith pass short middle to B.Bowers for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The biggest single swing came at Q4 2:00, 25 points for the Raiders.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 2:00LVG.Smith pass short middle to B.Bowers for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN.43% → 68%
- 2Q4 8:04JAXT.Lawrence pass short right to B.Thomas to LV 41 for 34 yards (D.Porter). JAX-B.Thomas was injured during the play.34% → 51%
- 3Q4 0:10JAXG.Smith sacked at LV 29 for -5 yards (sack split by J.Hines-Allen and E.Ogbah).33% → 50%
- 4Q1 1:07LVT.Lawrence pass short left intended for D.Brown INTERCEPTED by I.Pola-Mao at LV -1. Touchback.28% → 44%
- 5Q4 0:45JAXT.Lawrence pass short middle to T.Jones ran ob at LV 35 for 15 yards (E.Stokes).31% → 47%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again. The model does not hold together under the current overtime rules, so the chart covers regulation and overtime shows its scoring plays.
T.Etienne led the Jaguars at +7.0 EPA (22 carries for 84). B.Bowers led the Raiders at +13.2 EPA (12 catches for 127).
Jaguars
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Lawrence100% | 23/34 | 220 | 1 | 1 | -0.8 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Etienne57% | 22 | 52% | 84 | +6.2 | |
| T.Lawrence100% | 9 | 21% | 24 | 2 | +2.7 |
| B.Tuten25% | 9 | 21% | 29 | 1 | +1.8 |
| D.Brown60% | 1 | 2% | 4 | +0.2 | |
| L.Jr.28% | 1 | 2% | 10 | +1.9 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P.Washington88% | 9 | 27% | 8 | 90 | +4.8 | |
| D.Brown60% | 7 | 21% | 3 | 25 | -7.8 | |
| T.Etienne57% | 5 | 15% | 5 | 31 | +0.8 | |
| B.Jr.65% | 5 | 15% | 3 | 55 | +3.8 | |
| H.Long66% | 3 | 9% | 1 | 6 | -0.5 | |
| T.Jones19% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 15 | +1.1 | |
| A.Trammell28% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.6 | |
| L.Jr.28% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 1 | -0.4 | |
| B.Tuten25% | 1 | 3% | 1 | -3 | -0.8 |
Defense J.Hines-Allen 1.5 sacks, M.Brown 1 INT, E.Ogbah 0.5 sacks · Kicking C.Little 3/3 FG (long 68)
Raiders
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G.Smith100% | 29/39 | 284 | 4 | 1 | 2 | +11.4 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.Jeanty91% | 13 | 68% | 42 | -2.8 | |
| G.Smith100% | 5 | 26% | 9 | -0.3 | |
| B.Bowers81% | 1 | 5% | 6 | +0.2 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Bowers81% | 13 | 34% | 12 | 127 | 3 | +12.9 |
| M.Mayer83% | 7 | 18% | 3 | 26 | -8.5 | |
| J.Meyers89% | 6 | 16% | 4 | 23 | +0.4 | |
| A.Jeanty91% | 5 | 13% | 5 | 47 | 1 | +4.8 |
| T.Tucker97% | 4 | 11% | 3 | 38 | +2.7 | |
| R.Mostert9% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 14 | +2.1 | |
| T.Lockett30% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -1.9 | |
| I.Thomas17% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 9 | +0.6 |
Defense I.Pola-Mao 1 INT, M.Crosby 1 sack · Kicking D.Carlson 1/1 FG (long 24)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Third downs favor Jaguars
Jaguars convert 41% of third downs (14th). Raiders allow 47% (31st).
Deep middle is open
Raiders are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +0.56 EPA per attempt. Jaguars send 4% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Tight ends go quiet
Raiders give up 5.7 targets a game to tight ends (3rd), against a league average of 7.3. Jaguars' tight ends produce 6.1 (23rd).
Yards per play
Call this one even. Jaguars gain 5.4 yards per play (15th). Raiders give up 5.2 (11th), with the league at 5.4.
The Jaguars lead the series 6–4 since 1999 (they first met in 2004). This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 9 · OT | JAX 30 at LV 29 |
| 2024 · Wk 16 | JAX 14 at LV 19 |
| 2022 · Wk 9 | LV 20 at JAX 27 |
| 2019 · Wk 15 | JAX 20 at LV 16 |
| 2016 · Wk 7 | LV 33 at JAX 16 |
2025 records
| Jaguars | Raiders | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13–4 | 3–14 |
| Division | 5–1 | 1–5 |
| Conference | 10–2 | 3–9 |
| Other conference | 3–2 | 0–5 |
| Home | 7–2 | 2–7 |
| Away | 6–2 | 1–7 |
| Last 5 | WWWWW | LLLLW |
| Streak | Won 8 | Won 1 |
| Points a game | 27.9 – 19.8 | 14.2 – 25.4 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Jaguars' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | JAX off | Favors JAX · Favors LV | LV def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.03#13 | +0.03#19 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 45%#13 | 45%#21 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.4#15 | 5.2#11 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 10%#12 | 8%#7 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.06#11 | +0.08#22 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 7%#17 | 7%#18 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.04#14 | -0.07#14 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.0#23 | 4.0#10 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 41%#14 | 47%#31 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 64%#9 | 59%#18 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 164#6 | 147#21 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 44#23 | 39#3 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 6.1#23 | 5.7#3 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 27#23 | 28#10 | 32 | |
Jaguars: EPA per throw
Raiders: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.