2025
Week 9 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · Gillette Stadium
vs
Falcons offensevsPatriots defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Falcons, 21 for Patriots. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Patriots won 24–23; their low point was 50% at Q4 2:13. The game turned for good at Q4 2:13: M.Penix pass incomplete short left (50% → 54%). The biggest single swing came at Q4 4:44, 19 points for the Falcons.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 4:44ATLM.Penix pass short right to D.London for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.20% → 39%
- 2Q4 2:09NEM.Penix pass incomplete short middle. PENALTY on ATL-M.Penix, Intentional Grounding, 10 yards, enforced at NE 48.54% → 66%
- 3Q4 2:22ATLM.Penix pass deep left to D.London ran ob at NE 48 for 25 yards.38% → 51%
- 4Q4 1:42NED.Maye pass short left to H.Henry to NE 40 for 17 yards (X.Watts).83% → 94%
- 5Q4 6:03ATLM.Penix pass short left to D.London to NE 10 for 10 yards (C.Davis).19% → 29%
- ★Q4 2:13NEM.Penix pass incomplete short left.turning point50% → 54%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
D.London led the Falcons at +11.4 EPA (9 catches for 118). D.Douglas led the Patriots at +7.6 EPA (4 catches for 100).
Falcons
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M.Jr.100% | 22/37 | 221 | 3 | 1 | +3.7 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Robinson96% | 12 | 75% | 46 | -1.1 | |
| T.Allgeier30% | 2 | 13% | 6 | -0.6 | |
| M.Jr.100% | 2 | 13% | 19 | +1.8 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.London98% | 14 | 41% | 9 | 118 | 3 | +11.4 |
| B.Robinson96% | 10 | 29% | 8 | 50 | +0.5 | |
| K.Pitts95% | 7 | 21% | 4 | 38 | -3.5 | |
| D.Mooney100% | 2 | 6% | 1 | 15 | +0.2 | |
| D.Sills68% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -1.0 |
Defense L.London 2 sacks, B.Dorlus 2 sacks, J.Walker 2 sacks, J.Bates 1 INT · Kicking J.Romo 1/1 FG (long 38)
Patriots
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Maye100% | 19/29 | 259 | 2 | 1 | 6 | +0.4 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Henderson75% | 14 | 42% | 55 | -0.4 | |
| T.Jennings25% | 11 | 33% | 35 | 1 | +0.5 |
| D.Maye100% | 8 | 24% | 20 | +0.3 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H.Henry75% | 6 | 21% | 4 | 51 | -0.4 | |
| D.Douglas24% | 6 | 21% | 4 | 100 | 1 | +7.6 |
| T.Henderson75% | 6 | 21% | 4 | 32 | -0.4 | |
| S.Diggs60% | 4 | 14% | 3 | 38 | 1 | +4.5 |
| M.Hollins63% | 2 | 7% | 2 | 9 | +0.3 | |
| A.Hooper53% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 20 | +2.2 | |
| K.Boutte26% | 1 | 4% | 0 | 0 | -0.8 | |
| T.Jennings25% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 9 | +0.7 | |
| K.Williams46% | 1 | 4% | 0 | 0 | -0.6 |
Defense K.Chaisson 1 sack · Kicking A.Borregales 1/1 FG (long 32)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Clean pockets
Falcons take a sack on 5% of dropbacks (5th). Patriots get home on 7% (16th). League average is 7%.
Deep middle is open
Patriots are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +0.32 EPA per attempt. Falcons send 3% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Wideouts get blanketed
Patriots give up 117 yards a game to wide receivers (4th), against a league average of 140. Falcons' wide receivers produce 107 (28th).
Success rate
Call this one even. Falcons succeed on 44% of plays (16th) against a defense that allows 42% (11th).
The Patriots lead the series 8–0 since 1999 (they first met in 2001). They have won the last 8. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 9 | ATL 23 at NE 24 |
| 2021 · Wk 11 | NE 25 at ATL 0 |
| 2017 · Wk 7 | ATL 7 at NE 23 |
| 2016 · Wk 21 · OT · playoffs | NE 34 at ATL 28 |
| 2013 · Wk 4 | NE 30 at ATL 23 |
2025 records
| Falcons | Patriots | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8–9 | 14–3 |
| Division | 3–3 | 5–1 |
| Conference | 7–5 | 9–3 |
| Other conference | 1–4 | 5–0 |
| Home | 4–4 | 6–3 |
| Away | 4–5 | 8–0 |
| Last 5 | LWWWW | WLWWW |
| Streak | Won 4 | Won 3 |
| Points a game | 20.8 – 23.6 | 28.8 – 18.8 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Falcons' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | ATL off | Favors ATL · Favors NE | NE def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.02#23 | -0.09#5 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 44%#16 | 42%#11 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.5#13 | 4.9#6 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 10%#14 | 8%#6 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.01#20 | -0.12#6 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 5%#5 | 7%#16 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.06#20 | -0.09#12 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.6#7 | 3.9#8 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 34%#30 | 36%#7 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 61%#10 | 55%#8 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 107#28 | 117#4 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 57#11 | 55#20 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 7.5#14 | 7.5#20 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 54#2 | 29#11 | 32 | |
Falcons: EPA per throw
Patriots: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.