2025
Week 9 · Sunday 4:25 PM ET · New Era Field
vs
Chiefs offensevsBills defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Chiefs, 19 for Bills. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Bills won 28–21; their low point was 29% at Q2 9:27. The Chiefs had been 58% favorites at kickoff. The game turned for good at Q2 4:18: P.Mahomes pass incomplete short right to X.Worthy (C.Bishop). Penalty on KC-J.Taylor, Illegal Formation, declined (47% → 51%). The biggest single swing came at Q2 0:46, 13 points for the Chiefs.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q2 0:46KCP.Mahomes pass deep right to M.Brown to BUF 1 for 40 yards (C.Benford).31% → 45%
- 2Q2 7:34BUFJ.Allen pass short left to D.Kincaid pushed ob at KC 8 for 47 yards (N.Williams; T.McDuffie).30% → 42%
- 3Q1 8:05BUFJ.Allen pass deep right to D.Kincaid for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.47% → 57%
- 4Q4 11:34KCK.Hunt left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.9% → 18%
- 5Q1 4:23KCJ.Allen pass incomplete short middle to K.Shakir (B.Cook) [G.Karlaftis].40% → 49%
- ★Q2 4:18BUFP.Mahomes pass incomplete short right to X.Worthy (C.Bishop). Penalty on KC-J.Taylor, Illegal Formation, declined.turning point47% → 51%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
R.Rice led the Chiefs at +6.0 EPA (4 catches for 80). J.Allen led the Bills at +14.0 EPA (23 of 26 for 273).
Chiefs
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P.Mahomes100% | 15/34 | 250 | 1 | 3 | -1.7 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.Hunt78% | 11 | 55% | 49 | 1 | +3.2 |
| B.Smith20% | 3 | 15% | 7 | -0.9 | |
| C.Edwards-Helaire3% | 2 | 10% | 5 | -0.8 | |
| R.Rice82% | 2 | 10% | 6 | 1 | +1.2 |
| P.Mahomes100% | 1 | 5% | 5 | +0.6 | |
| X.Worthy83% | 1 | 5% | 7 | +0.4 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R.Rice82% | 7 | 24% | 4 | 80 | +4.8 | |
| X.Worthy83% | 7 | 24% | 3 | 23 | -5.4 | |
| T.Kelce92% | 5 | 17% | 4 | 66 | +5.8 | |
| M.Brown43% | 4 | 14% | 2 | 73 | +4.7 | |
| K.Hunt78% | 2 | 7% | 1 | 6 | -0.4 | |
| J.Smith-Schuster28% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 2 | -0.3 | |
| N.Gray37% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.8 | |
| T.Thornton23% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.3 | |
| B.Smith20% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.5 |
Defense T.McDuffie 1 sack, L.Chenal 1 sack, G.Karlaftis 0.5 sacks, A.Gillotte 0.5 sacks · Kicking H.Butker 2/2 FG (long 46)
Bills
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Allen100% | 23/26 | 273 | 1 | 3 | +9.6 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Cook76% | 27 | 77% | 114 | -1.2 | |
| J.Allen100% | 6 | 17% | 19 | 2 | +4.4 |
| T.Johnson20% | 2 | 6% | 8 | 1 | +1.8 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.Shakir61% | 8 | 32% | 7 | 43 | -1.9 | |
| D.Kincaid35% | 6 | 24% | 6 | 101 | 1 | +8.6 |
| T.Johnson20% | 2 | 8% | 2 | 12 | +1.1 | |
| K.Coleman68% | 2 | 8% | 2 | 17 | +0.7 | |
| J.Hawes47% | 2 | 8% | 1 | 18 | +0.7 | |
| C.Samuel41% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 6 | +0.3 | |
| D.Knox48% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 30 | +2.7 | |
| E.Moore26% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 28 | +2.2 | |
| J.Cook76% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 11 | +0.3 | |
| T.Shavers47% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 7 | +0.3 |
Defense M.Hairston 1 INT, J.Bosa 1 sack, C.Benford 1 sack, M.Hoecht 0.5 sacks · Kicking M.Prater 0/1 FG
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Run it at them
Chiefs' run game is 15th in EPA per carry (-0.05). Bills allow +0.04 (29th).
Deep middle is open
Bills are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +0.74 EPA per attempt. Chiefs send 4% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Checkdowns go nowhere
Bills give up 28 yards a game to running backs (9th), against a league average of 32. Chiefs' running backs produce 25 (25th).
Success rate
Call this one even. Chiefs succeed on 44% of plays (15th) against a defense that allows 43% (13th).
The Bills lead the series 12–11 since 1999 (they first met in 2000). This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 9 | KC 21 at BUF 28 |
| 2024 · Wk 21 · playoffs | BUF 29 at KC 32 |
| 2024 · Wk 11 | KC 21 at BUF 30 |
| 2023 · Wk 20 · playoffs | KC 27 at BUF 24 |
| 2023 · Wk 14 | BUF 20 at KC 17 |
2025 records
| Chiefs | Bills | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6–11 | 12–5 |
| Division | 1–5 | 4–2 |
| Conference | 3–9 | 9–3 |
| Other conference | 3–2 | 3–2 |
| Home | 5–4 | 7–2 |
| Away | 1–7 | 5–3 |
| Last 5 | LLLLL | WWWLW |
| Streak | Lost 6 | Won 1 |
| Points a game | 21.3 – 19.3 | 28.3 – 21.5 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Chiefs' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | KC off | Favors KC · Favors BUF | BUF def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.03#12 | -0.01#13 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 44%#15 | 43%#13 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.2#20 | 5.4#16 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 9%#18 | 11%#27 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.04#14 | -0.09#9 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 7%#21 | 6%#20 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.05#15 | +0.04#29 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 3.8#26 | 4.9#30 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 38%#23 | 43%#24 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 57%#19 | 59%#19 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 147#14 | 122#7 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 61#8 | 27#1 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 8.6#7 | 4.6#1 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 25#25 | 28#9 | 32 | |
Chiefs: EPA per throw
Bills: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.