2025
Week 9 · Sunday 4:25 PM ET · New Era Field
vs
Bills offensevsChiefs defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 19 games for Bills, 17 for Chiefs. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Bills won 28–21; their low point was 29% at Q2 9:27. The Chiefs had been 58% favorites at kickoff. The game turned for good at Q2 4:18: P.Mahomes pass incomplete short right to X.Worthy (C.Bishop). Penalty on KC-J.Taylor, Illegal Formation, declined (47% → 51%). The biggest single swing came at Q2 0:46, 13 points for the Chiefs.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q2 0:46KCP.Mahomes pass deep right to M.Brown to BUF 1 for 40 yards (C.Benford).31% → 45%
- 2Q2 7:34BUFJ.Allen pass short left to D.Kincaid pushed ob at KC 8 for 47 yards (N.Williams; T.McDuffie).30% → 42%
- 3Q1 8:05BUFJ.Allen pass deep right to D.Kincaid for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.47% → 57%
- 4Q4 11:34KCK.Hunt left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.9% → 18%
- 5Q1 4:23KCJ.Allen pass incomplete short middle to K.Shakir (B.Cook) [G.Karlaftis].40% → 49%
- ★Q2 4:18BUFP.Mahomes pass incomplete short right to X.Worthy (C.Bishop). Penalty on KC-J.Taylor, Illegal Formation, declined.turning point47% → 51%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
R.Rice led the Chiefs at +6.0 EPA (4 catches for 80). J.Allen led the Bills at +14.0 EPA (23 of 26 for 273).
Chiefs
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P.Mahomes100% | 15/34 | 250 | 1 | 3 | -1.7 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.Hunt78% | 11 | 55% | 49 | 1 | +3.2 |
| B.Smith20% | 3 | 15% | 7 | -0.9 | |
| C.Edwards-Helaire3% | 2 | 10% | 5 | -0.8 | |
| R.Rice82% | 2 | 10% | 6 | 1 | +1.2 |
| P.Mahomes100% | 1 | 5% | 5 | +0.6 | |
| X.Worthy83% | 1 | 5% | 7 | +0.4 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R.Rice82% | 7 | 24% | 4 | 80 | +4.8 | |
| X.Worthy83% | 7 | 24% | 3 | 23 | -5.4 | |
| T.Kelce92% | 5 | 17% | 4 | 66 | +5.8 | |
| M.Brown43% | 4 | 14% | 2 | 73 | +4.7 | |
| K.Hunt78% | 2 | 7% | 1 | 6 | -0.4 | |
| J.Smith-Schuster28% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 2 | -0.3 | |
| N.Gray37% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.8 | |
| T.Thornton23% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.3 | |
| B.Smith20% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.5 |
Defense T.McDuffie 1 sack, L.Chenal 1 sack, G.Karlaftis 0.5 sacks, A.Gillotte 0.5 sacks · Kicking H.Butker 2/2 FG (long 46)
Bills
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Allen100% | 23/26 | 273 | 1 | 3 | +9.6 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Cook76% | 27 | 77% | 114 | -1.2 | |
| J.Allen100% | 6 | 17% | 19 | 2 | +4.4 |
| T.Johnson20% | 2 | 6% | 8 | 1 | +1.8 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.Shakir61% | 8 | 32% | 7 | 43 | -1.9 | |
| D.Kincaid35% | 6 | 24% | 6 | 101 | 1 | +8.6 |
| T.Johnson20% | 2 | 8% | 2 | 12 | +1.1 | |
| K.Coleman68% | 2 | 8% | 2 | 17 | +0.7 | |
| J.Hawes47% | 2 | 8% | 1 | 18 | +0.7 | |
| C.Samuel41% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 6 | +0.3 | |
| D.Knox48% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 30 | +2.7 | |
| E.Moore26% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 28 | +2.2 | |
| J.Cook76% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 11 | +0.3 | |
| T.Shavers47% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 7 | +0.3 |
Defense M.Hairston 1 INT, J.Bosa 1 sack, C.Benford 1 sack, M.Hoecht 0.5 sacks · Kicking M.Prater 0/1 FG
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Third downs favor Bills
Bills convert 48% of third downs (3rd). Chiefs allow 44% (27th).
Deep middle is open
Chiefs are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +0.83 EPA per attempt. Bills send 4% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Tight ends go quiet
Chiefs give up 5.9 targets a game to tight ends (4th), against a league average of 7.3. Bills' tight ends produce 7.4 (16th).
Yards per play
Call this one even. Bills gain 6.0 yards per play (5th). Chiefs give up 5.3 (13th), with the league at 5.4.
The Bills lead the series 12–11 since 1999 (they first met in 2000). This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 9 | KC 21 at BUF 28 |
| 2024 · Wk 21 · playoffs | BUF 29 at KC 32 |
| 2024 · Wk 11 | KC 21 at BUF 30 |
| 2023 · Wk 20 · playoffs | KC 27 at BUF 24 |
| 2023 · Wk 14 | BUF 20 at KC 17 |
2025 records
| Chiefs | Bills | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6–11 | 12–5 |
| Division | 1–5 | 4–2 |
| Conference | 3–9 | 9–3 |
| Other conference | 3–2 | 3–2 |
| Home | 5–4 | 7–2 |
| Away | 1–7 | 5–3 |
| Last 5 | LLLLL | WWWLW |
| Streak | Lost 6 | Won 1 |
| Points a game | 21.3 – 19.3 | 28.3 – 21.5 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Chiefs' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | BUF off | Favors BUF · Favors KC | KC def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.14#2 | -0.02#12 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 49%#2 | 44%#14 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 6.0#5 | 5.3#13 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 12%#1 | 9%#12 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.17#3 | 0.00#15 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 7%#18 | 6%#19 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | +0.07#1 | -0.09#9 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.8#4 | 3.9#7 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 48%#3 | 44%#27 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 68%#4 | 55%#10 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 130#20 | 129#12 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 73#2 | 48#11 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 7.4#16 | 5.9#4 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 36#11 | 29#14 | 32 | |
Bills: EPA per throw
Chiefs: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.