2026
2026 season · Oct 29 to Nov 2 · 14 games · byes: HOU, NO, NYG, SF
Week 8 in review
What happened this week: every game's swings in one strip, the plays that decided them, the offenses and defenses that had their day, the players who carried them.
- UpsetThe Cardinals beat the Cowboys 33–30 as a 23% underdog at kickoff, the longest odds anyone overcame this week.
- ComebackThe Cardinals were down to 2% against the Cowboys and won 33–30.
- WildestRaiders at Jets: the lead changed hands 5 times; the Raiders won 38–33, and the biggest swing was 21 points at Q4 6:11.
- Best offenseThe Jets: +0.25 EPA a play against the Raiders, +0.24 against their usual.
- Best defenseThe Buccaneers held the Falcons to −0.52 EPA a play, −0.41 against what they usually allow.
- PlayerKirk Cousins (LV QB): +18.4 EPA, 19/26, 247 yds, 3 TD · 5-3 rush.
The gamesevery final with its win-probability line
Each line is the winner's chance of winning, snap by snap, from nflverse's spread-adjusted model: above the dashed middle (shaded in the winner's color) they were favored, below it (shaded grey) they were behind. Overtime is left off the line, as on the game page. A comeback is a winner who fell below 25%; an upset is a winner who was under 50% at kickoff; lead changes count the score changing hands. Click a game for the full chart, the box score and the plays that swung it.
The playsthe ones that moved games, and the ones that moved the ball
- 1
Cardinals · Q4 0:10 · ARI at DALG.Minshew pass short middle to Mi.Wilson for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+4619% → 65% - 2
Broncos · Q4 0:04 · KC at DENP.Mahomes sacked at DEN 12 for -6 yards (M.Roach).+4160% → 100% - 3
Cowboys · Q4 0:06 · ARI at DALC.Ryland extra point is No Good, Wide Left+3336% → 69% - 4
Broncos · Q4 2:31 · KC at DENB.Nix pass short right to J.Coleman to KC 5 for 51 yards (N.Williams; N.Bolton).+2742% → 69% - 5
Chiefs · Q4 1:32 · KC at DENP.Mahomes pass short right to T.Kelce to DEN 18 for 32 yards (D.Key).+2628% → 54% - 6
Titans · Q4 3:50 · TEN at CINC.Ward pass short right to W.Robinson for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+2546% → 71% - 7
Bengals · Q4 0:32 · TEN at CINC.Ward sacked at TEN 42 for -13 yards (D.Lawrence).+2441% → 65% - 8
Chiefs · Q2 7:54 · KC at DENP.Mahomes pass short left to E.Johnson for 73 yards, TOUCHDOWN [J.McMillian].+2347% → 70% - 9
Jets · Q4 6:11 · LV at NYJG.Smith pass deep left to A.Mitchell to LV 13 for 47 yards (T.Stukes).+2133% → 54% - 10
Bengals · Q4 8:02 · TEN at CINJ.Burrow pass deep right to J.Chase to TEN 25 for 23 yards (T.Adams) [J.Martin].+1843% → 61%
- 1
Chiefs · Q2 7:54 · vs DEN · Emmett JohnsonP.Mahomes pass short left to E.Johnson for 73 yards, TOUCHDOWN [J.McMillian].+7.0EPA - 2
Cardinals · Q3 1:10 · vs DAL · Tyler AllgeierT.Allgeier up the middle for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+5.3EPA - 3
Steelers · Q1 4:17 · vs CLE · Jaylen WarrenJ.Warren up the middle to CLE 25 for 51 yards.+5.1EPA - 4
Panthers · Q4 5:45 · vs GB · Jalen CokerB.Young pass short middle to J.Coker for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+5.0EPA - 5
Bengals · Q2 13:27 · vs TEN · Ja'Marr ChaseJ.Burrow pass deep middle to J.Chase for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+4.7EPA - 6
Falcons · Q4 4:35 · vs TB · Jahan DotsonM.Penix pass deep left to J.Dotson to TB 22 for 76 yards.+4.6EPA - 7
Packers · Q2 1:51 · vs CAR · Matthew GoldenJ.Love pass deep left to M.Golden for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+4.5EPA - 8
Patriots · Q4 12:50 · vs MIA · DeMario DouglasD.Maye pass deep right to D.Douglas for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+4.4EPA - 9
Dolphins · Q4 2:10 · vs NE · Kevin Coleman Jr.M.Willis pass deep left to K.Coleman for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+4.4EPA - 10
Browns · Q4 14:22 · vs PIT · Harold Fannin Jr.D.Watson pass deep right to H.Fannin pushed ob at PIT 2 for 37 yards.+4.2EPA
Teamswho had their day, by EPA a play
EPA a play counts every pass and run in the game, scrambles and sacks included. "Vs usual" compares it with the same team's average in its other games this season, so a good offense having an ordinary day reads as a dip. Each team links to its offense or defense tab.
Playersthe best games by position, by EPA
- 1
Kirk CousinsLV vs NYJ · 19/26, 247 yds, 3 TD · 5-3 rush+18.4
- 2
Joe BurrowCIN vs TEN · 38/48, 462 yds, 5 TD, 3 INT · 3-10 rush+16.2
- 3
Cam WardTEN vs CIN · 26/40, 304 yds, 2 TD · 7-41 rush+14.3
- 4
Gardner MinshewARI vs DAL · 17/23, 188 yds, 3 TD+14.3
- 5
Geno SmithNYJ vs LV · 20/32, 290 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT+11.8
- 6
Jordan LoveGB vs CAR · 30/41, 288 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT+11.7
- 7
Patrick MahomesKC vs DEN · 30/41, 321 yds, 3 TD+10.8
- 8
Drake MayeNE vs MIA · 16/20, 199 yds, 2 TD · 8-5 rush+8.5
- 1
Tyler AllgeierARI vs DAL · 11 car, 147 yds, 1 TD · 5-44 rec+11.7
- 2
Emmett JohnsonKC vs DEN · 1 car, 15 yds · 5-128 rec+10.6
- 3
Bhayshul TutenJAX vs IND · 16 car, 104 yds, 1 TD · 2-55 rec+8.6
- 4
Braelon AllenNYJ vs LV · 21 car, 147 yds, 1 TD · 2-6 rec+4.4
- 5
Chris Rodriguez Jr.JAX vs IND · 6 car, 41 yds, 1 TD · 1-17 rec+3.0
- 6
Ashton JeantyLV vs NYJ · 2 car, 9 yds · 3-64 rec+2.9
- 7
Jonah ColemanDEN vs KC · 11 car, 41 yds, 1 TD · 4-63 rec+2.7
- 8
James CookBUF vs BAL · 21 car, 80 yds, 1 TD · 2-21 rec+2.6
- 1
Joe BurrowCIN vs TEN · QB39.5
- 2
Tyler AllgeierARI vs DAL · RB31.1
- 3
Kirk CousinsLV vs NYJ · QB28.2
- 4
Bhayshul TutenJAX vs IND · RB27.9
- 5
Tee HigginsCIN vs TEN · WR27.5
- 6
Josh AllenBUF vs BAL · QB26.6
- 7
Cam WardTEN vs CIN · QB26.3
- 8
Tony PollardTEN vs CIN · RB25.7
- 9
Patrick MahomesKC vs DEN · QB25.4
- 10
Jahmyr GibbsDET vs MIN · RB22.8
- 11
Drake MayeNE vs MIA · QB22.5
- 12
Jordan LoveGB vs CAR · QB21.5
- 13
Braelon AllenNYJ vs LV · RB21.3
- 14
Brock BowersLV vs NYJ · TE21.2
- 15
Bucky IrvingTB vs ATL · RB21.0
- 16
Emmett JohnsonKC vs DEN · RB20.3
- 1
Joe BurrowCIN vs TEN · QB39.5
- 2
Tyler AllgeierARI vs DAL · RB33.6
- 3
Tee HigginsCIN vs TEN · WR32.5
- 4
Bhayshul TutenJAX vs IND · RB28.9
- 5
Kirk CousinsLV vs NYJ · QB28.2
- 6
Tony PollardTEN vs CIN · RB27.2
- 7
Josh AllenBUF vs BAL · QB26.6
- 8
Cam WardTEN vs CIN · QB26.3
- 9
Ja'Marr ChaseCIN vs TEN · WR25.6
- 10
Patrick MahomesKC vs DEN · QB25.4
- 11
Brock BowersLV vs NYJ · TE24.7
- 12
Jahmyr GibbsDET vs MIN · RB23.8
- 13
Adonai MitchellNYJ vs LV · WR23.7
- 14
Michael WilsonARI vs DAL · WR22.8
- 15
Emmett JohnsonKC vs DEN · RB22.8
- 16
Drake MayeNE vs MIA · QB22.5
- 1
Joe BurrowCIN vs TEN · QB39.5
- 2
Tee HigginsCIN vs TEN · WR37.5
- 3
Tyler AllgeierARI vs DAL · RB36.1
- 4
Ja'Marr ChaseCIN vs TEN · WR31.1
- 5
Bhayshul TutenJAX vs IND · RB29.9
- 6
Tony PollardTEN vs CIN · RB28.7
- 7
Kirk CousinsLV vs NYJ · QB28.2
- 8
Brock BowersLV vs NYJ · TE28.2
- 9
Adonai MitchellNYJ vs LV · WR27.2
- 10
Michael WilsonARI vs DAL · WR26.8
- 11
Josh AllenBUF vs BAL · QB26.6
- 12
Cam WardTEN vs CIN · QB26.3
- 13
Patrick MahomesKC vs DEN · QB25.4
- 14
Emmett JohnsonKC vs DEN · RB25.3
- 15
Puka NacuaLA vs LAC · WR25.0
- 16
Chuba HubbardCAR vs GB · RB24.9
- 1
Tee HigginsCIN vs TEN · 10/11, 155 yds, 2 TD+14.9
- 2
Adonai MitchellNYJ vs LV · 7/9, 142 yds, 1 TD+13.0
- 3
DeMario DouglasNE vs MIA · 3/3, 76 yds, 1 TD+8.0
- 4
Jalen NailorLV vs NYJ · 4/4, 38 yds, 1 TD+6.3
- 5
Kevin Coleman Jr.MIA vs NE · 3/3, 46 yds, 1 TD+6.0
- 6
Michael WilsonARI vs DAL · 8/15, 111 yds, 1 TD+5.8
- 7
Malik WashingtonMIA vs NE · 5/6, 40 yds, 1 TD+5.8
- 8
Khalil ShakirBUF vs BAL · 5/6, 64 yds+5.3
- 1
Brock BowersLV vs NYJ · 7/10, 92 yds, 2 TD+9.2
- 2
Harold Fannin Jr.CLE vs PIT · 10/12, 154 yds+8.2
- 3
Tucker KraftGB vs CAR · 6/6, 53 yds, 1 TD+7.3
- 4
T.J. HockensonMIN vs DET · 4/5, 58 yds, 1 TD+6.5
- 5
Dalton KincaidBUF vs BAL · 4/6, 86 yds, 1 TD+6.4
- 6
Trey McBrideARI vs DAL · 7/8, 72 yds, 1 TD+6.1
- 7
Darnell WashingtonPIT vs CLE · 3/5, 94 yds+6.0
- 8
Gunnar HelmTEN vs CIN · 5/9, 76 yds+4.8
Movers for Week 8 appear once every game is final.