2026
Week 8 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · Ford Field
vs
Vikings offensevsLions defense
Season numbers through Week 8: 7 games for Vikings, 7 for Lions. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Lions won 19–15; their low point was 38% at Q2 1:51. The game turned for good at Q4 7:22: S.Vaki left tackle to MIN 35 for 12 yards (H.Smith) (47% → 56%). The biggest single swing came at Q4 10:16, 17 points for the Vikings.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 10:16MINK.Murray pass deep middle to J.Addison to DET 10 for 51 yards (K.Dorsey).29% → 45%
- 2Q3 9:54MINJ.Bates 46 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright43% → 56%
- 3Q1 4:55DETJ.Goff pass deep middle to J.Williams to MIN 9 for 46 yards (B.Murphy). PENALTY on DET-J.Williams, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced at MIN 9.60% → 73%
- 4Q4 14:34DETK.Murray pass incomplete short left to J.Addison (D.Reed) [A.Hutchinson].66% → 78%
- 5Q3 4:50DETJ.Gibbs up the middle for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN.65% → 77%
- ★Q4 7:22DETS.Vaki left tackle to MIN 35 for 12 yards (H.Smith).turning point47% → 56%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
T.Hockenson led the Vikings at +6.5 EPA (4 catches for 58). A.Brown led the Lions at +6.2 EPA (7 catches for 46).
Vikings
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.Murray100% | 17/29 | 210 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1.7 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Mason28% | 8 | 44% | 20 | -3.6 | |
| A.Jones40% | 5 | 28% | 22 | -0.9 | |
| K.Murray100% | 4 | 22% | 35 | +2.1 | |
| D.Dallas32% | 1 | 6% | 4 | -0.6 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Jefferson96% | 9 | 32% | 5 | 33 | 1 | -0.6 |
| J.Addison98% | 8 | 29% | 3 | 66 | -6.2 | |
| T.Hockenson83% | 5 | 18% | 4 | 58 | 1 | +6.5 |
| A.Jones40% | 2 | 7% | 2 | 18 | +1.8 | |
| J.Jennings55% | 2 | 7% | 2 | 11 | +0.9 | |
| B.Yurosek43% | 2 | 7% | 1 | 24 | +1.3 |
Defense A.Ginkel 2.5 sacks, J.Pierre 1 INT, E.Wilson 1 sack, T.Ingram-Dawkins 0.5 sacks · Kicking W.Reichard 0/1 FG
Lions
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Goff100% | 18/25 | 176 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -4.2 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Gibbs76% | 23 | 59% | 153 | 1 | -1.8 |
| S.Vaki28% | 11 | 28% | 65 | +0.1 | |
| J.Goff100% | 3 | 8% | 0 | -0.7 | |
| A.Brown72% | 1 | 3% | 10 | +2.0 | |
| S.LaPorta93% | 1 | 3% | 2 | +0.2 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.Brown72% | 8 | 32% | 7 | 46 | +4.2 | |
| J.Williams83% | 6 | 24% | 4 | 70 | 1 | +1.0 |
| S.LaPorta93% | 5 | 20% | 3 | 33 | -0.6 | |
| J.Gibbs76% | 4 | 16% | 2 | 15 | -2.5 | |
| T.Conklin31% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 7 | +0.3 | |
| S.Vaki28% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 5 | +0.1 |
Defense D.Reed 1 INT, A.McNeill 1 sack, J.Rolder 1 sack, S.Gill-Howard 1 sack · Kicking J.Bates 2/3 FG (long 37)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Tight ends feast
Lions give up 98 yards a game to tight ends (32nd), against a league average of 55. Vikings' tight ends produce 61 (13th).
Deep right is open
Lions are worst against deep right throws, allowing +1.32 EPA per attempt. Vikings send 7% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Pressure problem
Vikings take a sack on 10% of dropbacks (29th). Lions get home on 8% (7th). League average is 7%.
Yards per play
Call this one even. Vikings gain 4.9 yards per play (24th). Lions give up 5.6 (21st), with the league at 5.4.
The Vikings lead the series 36–19 since 1999. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 8 | MIN 15 at DET 19 |
| 2025 · Wk 17 | DET 10 at MIN 23 |
| 2025 · Wk 9 | MIN 27 at DET 24 |
| 2024 · Wk 18 | MIN 9 at DET 31 |
| 2024 · Wk 7 | DET 31 at MIN 29 |
2026 records
| Vikings | Lions | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6–1 | 5–2 |
| Division | 2–1 | 2–0 |
| Conference | 4–1 | 4–1 |
| Other conference | 2–0 | 1–1 |
| Home | 3–0 | 4–0 |
| Away | 3–1 | 1–2 |
| Last 5 | WWWWL | WLWWW |
| Streak | Lost 1 | Won 3 |
| Points a game | 20.0 – 13.3 | 29.0 – 25.7 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Vikings' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | MIN off | Favors MIN · Favors DET | DET def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.10#28 | +0.11#30 | +0.00 | |
| Success rate | 37%#31 | 45%#25 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 4.9#24 | 5.6#21 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 9%#16 | 11%#30 | 9% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.08#24 | +0.18#29 | +0.03 | |
| Sack rate | 10%#29 | 8%#7 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.21#28 | -0.09#12 | -0.08 | |
| Yards per carry | 3.8#21 | 3.9#16 | 4.1 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 39%#21 | 46%#27 | 41% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 59%#16 | 74%#28 | 61% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 105#30 | 177#27 | 147 | |
| TE yards per game | 61#13 | 98#32 | 55 | |
| TE targets per game | 7.6#14 | 11.4#32 | 7.6 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 19#28 | 23#8 | 32 | |
Vikings: EPA per throw
Lions: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.