2026
Week 8 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · Ford Field
vs
Lions offensevsVikings defense
Season numbers through Week 8: 7 games for Lions, 7 for Vikings. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Lions won 19–15; their low point was 38% at Q2 1:51. The game turned for good at Q4 7:22: S.Vaki left tackle to MIN 35 for 12 yards (H.Smith) (47% → 56%). The biggest single swing came at Q4 10:16, 17 points for the Vikings.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 10:16MINK.Murray pass deep middle to J.Addison to DET 10 for 51 yards (K.Dorsey).29% → 45%
- 2Q3 9:54DETJ.Bates 46 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright43% → 56%
- 3Q1 4:55DETJ.Goff pass deep middle to J.Williams to MIN 9 for 46 yards (B.Murphy). PENALTY on DET-J.Williams, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced at MIN 9.60% → 73%
- 4Q4 14:34MINK.Murray pass incomplete short left to J.Addison (D.Reed) [A.Hutchinson].66% → 78%
- 5Q3 4:50DETJ.Gibbs up the middle for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN.65% → 77%
- ★Q4 7:22DETS.Vaki left tackle to MIN 35 for 12 yards (H.Smith).turning point47% → 56%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. Each play is tagged with the team that had the ball; the bar names the team it helped. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
T.Hockenson led the Vikings at +6.5 EPA (4 catches for 58). A.Brown led the Lions at +6.2 EPA (7 catches for 46).
Vikings
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.Murray100% | 17/29 | 210 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1.7 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Mason28% | 8 | 44% | 20 | -3.6 | |
| A.Jones40% | 5 | 28% | 22 | -0.9 | |
| K.Murray100% | 4 | 22% | 35 | +2.1 | |
| D.Dallas32% | 1 | 6% | 4 | -0.6 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Jefferson96% | 9 | 32% | 5 | 33 | 1 | -0.6 |
| J.Addison98% | 8 | 29% | 3 | 66 | -6.2 | |
| T.Hockenson83% | 5 | 18% | 4 | 58 | 1 | +6.5 |
| A.Jones40% | 2 | 7% | 2 | 18 | +1.8 | |
| J.Jennings55% | 2 | 7% | 2 | 11 | +0.9 | |
| B.Yurosek43% | 2 | 7% | 1 | 24 | +1.3 |
Defense A.Ginkel 2.5 sacks, J.Pierre 1 INT, E.Wilson 1 sack, T.Ingram-Dawkins 0.5 sacks · Kicking W.Reichard 0/1 FG (57 no good), 1/1 XP, 1 pt
Lions
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Goff100% | 18/25 | 176 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -4.2 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Gibbs76% | 23 | 59% | 153 | 1 | -1.8 |
| S.Vaki28% | 11 | 28% | 65 | +0.1 | |
| J.Goff100% | 3 | 8% | 0 | -0.7 | |
| A.Brown72% | 1 | 3% | 10 | +2.0 | |
| S.LaPorta93% | 1 | 3% | 2 | +0.2 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.Brown72% | 8 | 32% | 7 | 46 | +4.2 | |
| J.Williams83% | 6 | 24% | 4 | 70 | 1 | +1.0 |
| S.LaPorta93% | 5 | 20% | 3 | 33 | -0.6 | |
| J.Gibbs76% | 4 | 16% | 2 | 15 | -2.5 | |
| T.Conklin31% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 7 | +0.3 | |
| S.Vaki28% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 5 | +0.1 |
Defense D.Reed 1 INT, A.McNeill 1 sack, J.Rolder 1 sack, S.Gill-Howard 1 sack · Kicking J.Bates 2/3 FG (46 no good), 1/1 XP, 7 pts
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Ground game edge
Lions average 4.7 yards per carry (6th). Vikings allow 4.5 (25th).
Deep middle is open
Vikings are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +1.12 EPA per attempt. Lions send 7% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Third downs favor Vikings
Lions convert 39% of third downs (21st). Vikings allow 31% (2nd).
Success rate
Call this one even. Lions succeed on 49% of plays (3rd) against a defense that allows 37% (1st).
The Vikings lead the series 36–19 since 1999. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 8 | MIN 15 at DET 19 |
| 2025 · Wk 17 | DET 10 at MIN 23 |
| 2025 · Wk 9 | MIN 27 at DET 24 |
| 2024 · Wk 18 | MIN 9 at DET 31 |
| 2024 · Wk 7 | DET 31 at MIN 29 |
2026 records
| Vikings | Lions | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6–1 | 5–2 |
| Division | 2–1 | 2–0 |
| Conference | 4–1 | 4–1 |
| Other conference | 2–0 | 1–1 |
| Home | 3–0 | 4–0 |
| Away | 3–1 | 1–2 |
| Last 5 | WWWWL | WLWWW |
| Streak | Lost 1 | Won 3 |
| Points a game | 20.0 – 13.3 | 29.0 – 25.7 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Vikings' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | DET off | Favors DET · Favors MIN | MIN def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.12#6 | -0.17#1 | +0.00 | |
| Success rate | 49%#3 | 37%#1 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 6.0#7 | 4.7#2 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 12%#3 | 9%#14 | 9% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.25#2 | -0.24#1 | +0.03 | |
| Sack rate | 6%#14 | 11%#1 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.05#14 | -0.11#9 | -0.08 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.7#6 | 4.5#25 | 4.1 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 39%#21 | 31%#2 | 41% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 69%#5 | 27%#1 | 61% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 173#7 | 123#6 | 147 | |
| TE yards per game | 60#14 | 39#4 | 55 | |
| TE targets per game | 7.6#15 | 6.3#6 | 7.6 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 48#5 | 18#3 | 32 | |
Lions: EPA per throw
Vikings: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.