2026
Week 8 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · AT&T Stadium
vs
Cardinals offensevsCowboys defense
Season numbers through Week 8: 8 games for Cardinals, 8 for Cowboys. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Cardinals won 33–30 from as low as 2% (Q3 2:59, down 17–3). The Cowboys had been 77% favorites at kickoff. Tied 30–30 after regulation, they won it in overtime at OT 2:58: C.Ryland 42 yard field goal is GOOD. The biggest single swing came at Q4 0:10, 46 points for the Cardinals.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 0:10ARIG.Minshew pass short middle to Mi.Wilson for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.19% → 64%
- 2Q4 0:06DALC.Ryland extra point is No Good, Wide Left36% → 68%
- 3Q4 0:03ARID.Prescott kneels to DAL 34 for -1 yards.29% → 50%
- 4Q1 6:17DALJ.Love up the middle to DAL 1 for no gain (C.Downs; K.Clark).64% → 77%
- 5Q1 3:18DALJ.Brissett pass short middle intended for E.Higgins INTERCEPTED by S.James [R.Gary] at ARI 38. S.James pushed ob at ARI 5 for 33 yards (J.Williams).75% → 85%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again. The model does not hold together under the current overtime rules, so the chart covers regulation and overtime shows its scoring plays.
G.Minshew led the Cardinals at +14.3 EPA (17 of 23 for 188). D.Prescott led the Cowboys at +7.1 EPA (19 of 29 for 195).
Cardinals
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Brissett58% | 10/23 | 119 | 1 | 4 | -14.3 | |
| G.Minshew42% | 17/23 | 188 | 3 | 1 | +14.3 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Allgeier59% | 11 | 41% | 147 | 1 | +7.9 |
| J.Love19% | 9 | 33% | 23 | -6.1 | |
| J.Brissett58% | 3 | 11% | 7 | +3.7 | |
| B.Knight22% | 3 | 11% | 8 | -1.3 | |
| M.Wilson79% | 1 | 4% | 17 | +1.5 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M.Wilson79% | 15 | 37% | 8 | 111 | 1 | +5.8 |
| T.McBride95% | 8 | 20% | 7 | 72 | 1 | +6.1 |
| T.Allgeier59% | 5 | 12% | 5 | 44 | 1 | +3.8 |
| E.Higgins32% | 4 | 10% | 2 | 10 | -6.7 | |
| K.Bourne31% | 2 | 5% | 1 | 29 | +1.8 | |
| D.Duvernay42% | 2 | 5% | 2 | 14 | -0.1 | |
| B.Knight22% | 2 | 5% | 1 | 10 | -2.5 | |
| R.Virgil47% | 2 | 5% | 0 | 0 | -0.8 | |
| S.Fehoko49% | 1 | 2% | 1 | 17 | +0.6 |
Defense A.Billings 1 sack, J.Sweat 1 sack, L.Collier 1 sack, Z.Collins 1 sack · Kicking C.Ryland 2/2 FG (long 42)
Cowboys
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Prescott100% | 19/29 | 195 | 1 | 4 | +3.3 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Williams74% | 24 | 62% | 56 | -9.7 | |
| D.Prescott100% | 7 | 18% | 20 | 1 | +3.9 |
| T.Goodson27% | 7 | 18% | 14 | -1.0 | |
| R.Flournoy68% | 1 | 3% | 3 | -0.2 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Lamb76% | 11 | 39% | 7 | 58 | +4.2 | |
| B.Spann-Ford88% | 5 | 18% | 4 | 31 | +0.7 | |
| G.Pickens57% | 4 | 14% | 2 | 48 | +1.1 | |
| R.Flournoy68% | 4 | 14% | 3 | 38 | 1 | +2.6 |
| J.Williams74% | 2 | 7% | 1 | 1 | -0.8 | |
| T.Goodson27% | 2 | 7% | 2 | 19 | +1.2 |
Defense Q.Williams 2 sacks, S.James 1 INT, V.Miller 1 sack, J.Houston 1 sack · Kicking B.Aubrey 3/4 FG (long 41)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Run it at them
Cardinals' run game is 12th in EPA per carry (-0.05). Cowboys allow -0.01 (29th).
Short middle is open
Cowboys are worst against short middle throws, allowing +0.59 EPA per attempt. Cardinals send 18% of their throws there.
Checkdowns go nowhere
Cowboys give up 27 yards a game to running backs (10th), against a league average of 32. Cardinals' running backs produce 25 (23rd).
Explosive play rate
Call this one even. Cardinals create explosive plays on 6% of snaps (31st). Cowboys give them up at 11% (27th).
The Cardinals lead the series 13–7 since 1999. They have won the last 5. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 8 · OT | ARI 33 at DAL 30 |
| 2025 · Wk 9 | ARI 27 at DAL 17 |
| 2023 · Wk 3 | DAL 16 at ARI 28 |
| 2021 · Wk 17 | ARI 25 at DAL 22 |
| 2020 · Wk 6 | ARI 38 at DAL 10 |
2026 records
| Cardinals | Cowboys | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| Division | 1–2 | 2–1 |
| Conference | 2–4 | 2–4 |
| Other conference | 1–1 | 1–1 |
| Home | 0–3 | 1–3 |
| Away | 3–2 | 2–2 |
| Last 5 | LLWLW | WLLWL |
| Streak | Won 1 | Lost 1 |
| Points a game | 21.9 – 29.8 | 27.4 – 26.6 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Cardinals' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | ARI off | Favors ARI · Favors DAL | DAL def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.02#19 | +0.13#31 | +0.00 | |
| Success rate | 44%#13 | 46%#28 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 4.9#27 | 6.1#30 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 6%#31 | 11%#27 | 9% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.02#21 | +0.21#30 | +0.03 | |
| Sack rate | 6%#12 | 6%#25 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.05#12 | -0.01#29 | -0.08 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.2#14 | 5.1#31 | 4.1 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 40%#17 | 53%#31 | 41% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 50%#30 | 70%#26 | 61% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 123#26 | 164#26 | 147 | |
| TE yards per game | 91#2 | 53#16 | 55 | |
| TE targets per game | 13.5#2 | 7.1#14 | 7.6 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 25#23 | 27#10 | 32 | |
Cardinals: EPA per throw
Cowboys: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.