2026
Week 8 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · Acrisure Stadium
vs
Browns offensevsSteelers defense
Season numbers through Week 8: 8 games for Browns, 8 for Steelers. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Steelers won 27–6 and were favored the whole way, never below 58%. The biggest single swing came at Q1 10:41, 10 points for the Steelers.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q1 10:41PITD.Watson sacked at CLE 45 for -5 yards (sack split by P.Queen and C.Heyward). FUMBLES (P.Queen) [P.Queen], touched at CLE 45, RECOVERED by…58% → 69%
- 2Q2 0:49CLEA.Szmyt 49 yard field goal is GOOD13% → 21%
- 3Q1 4:17PITJ.Warren up the middle to CLE 25 for 51 yards (C.Schwesinger).80% → 88%
- 4Q1 11:19CLEC.Boswell 57 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left35% → 42%
- 5Q1 13:37CLED.Watson pass incomplete short right to K.Concepcion. CLE-D.Watson was injured during the play. PENALTY on PIT-J.Brisker, Roughing the Passer, 15…34% → 40%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
H.Jr. led the Browns at +8.3 EPA (10 catches for 154). D.Washington led the Steelers at +6.0 EPA (3 catches for 94).
Browns
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Watson94% | 27/39 | 324 | 8 | -6.4 | ||
| S.Sanders6% | 2/2 | 2 | -1.6 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q.Judkins39% | 11 | 73% | 25 | -6.3 | |
| D.Watson94% | 3 | 20% | 2 | -0.9 | |
| D.Sampson56% | 1 | 7% | 7 | +0.3 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H.Jr.86% | 12 | 30% | 10 | 154 | +8.3 | |
| D.Boston83% | 11 | 28% | 6 | 37 | -3.2 | |
| D.Sampson56% | 8 | 20% | 6 | 62 | +1.7 | |
| K.Concepcion83% | 4 | 10% | 3 | 37 | +0.9 | |
| Q.Judkins39% | 2 | 5% | 2 | 24 | +0.8 | |
| J.Jeudy60% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.5 | |
| T.Wallace14% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 3 | -0.6 | |
| B.Whiteheart36% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 9 | -2.0 |
Defense D.Ward 1 INT, A.Huntington 1 sack · Kicking A.Szmyt 2/2 FG (long 49)
Steelers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.Rodgers95% | 13/25 | 172 | 1 | 1 | -4.1 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Warren58% | 17 | 52% | 143 | 1 | +5.2 |
| R.Dowdle47% | 15 | 45% | 56 | 1 | +2.6 |
| P.Freiermuth53% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 1 | +3.4 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Metcalf92% | 6 | 27% | 1 | 4 | -5.7 | |
| D.Washington63% | 5 | 23% | 3 | 94 | +6.0 | |
| G.Bernard85% | 5 | 23% | 5 | 30 | +0.4 | |
| P.Freiermuth53% | 2 | 9% | 2 | 35 | +2.1 | |
| J.Warren58% | 2 | 9% | 1 | 0 | -2.9 | |
| B.Johnson17% | 1 | 5% | 1 | 9 | +0.6 | |
| R.Nowakowski12% | 1 | 5% | 0 | 0 | -1.6 |
Defense T.Watt 2 sacks, C.Heyward 1.5 sacks, P.Queen 1.5 sacks, N.Herbig 1 sack · Kicking C.Boswell 2/3 FG (long 37)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Backs catch passes
Steelers give up 47 yards a game to running backs (30th), against a league average of 32. Browns' running backs produce 40 (9th).
Deep right is open
Steelers are worst against deep right throws, allowing +1.30 EPA per attempt. Browns send 5% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Field goals, not touchdowns
Browns score a touchdown on 47% of red zone trips (31st). Steelers allow 38% (2nd).
Success rate
Call this one even. Browns succeed on 42% of plays (18th) against a defense that allows 42% (9th).
The Steelers lead the series 43–14–1 since 1999. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 8 | CLE 6 at PIT 27 |
| 2026 · Wk 4 | PIT 24 at CLE 27 |
| 2025 · Wk 17 | PIT 6 at CLE 13 |
| 2025 · Wk 6 | CLE 9 at PIT 23 |
| 2024 · Wk 14 | CLE 14 at PIT 27 |
2026 records
| Browns | Steelers | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5–3 | 6–2 |
| Division | 2–1 | 2–1 |
| Conference | 3–3 | 3–2 |
| Other conference | 2–0 | 3–0 |
| Home | 3–0 | 4–0 |
| Away | 2–3 | 2–2 |
| Last 5 | WLWWL | LWWWW |
| Streak | Lost 1 | Won 4 |
| Points a game | 17.4 – 21.6 | 22.5 – 18.0 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Browns' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | CLE off | Favors CLE · Favors PIT | PIT def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.08#25 | -0.07#6 | +0.00 | |
| Success rate | 42%#18 | 42%#9 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.1#23 | 5.0#6 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 8%#24 | 9%#12 | 9% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.06#23 | -0.06#8 | +0.03 | |
| Sack rate | 12%#32 | 9%#4 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.19#27 | -0.16#5 | -0.08 | |
| Yards per carry | 3.6#27 | 3.4#3 | 4.1 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 32%#30 | 35%#8 | 41% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 47%#31 | 38%#2 | 61% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 129#23 | 139#14 | 147 | |
| TE yards per game | 57#16 | 57#22 | 55 | |
| TE targets per game | 7.0#20 | 6.6#9 | 7.6 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 40#9 | 47#30 | 32 | |
Browns: EPA per throw
Steelers: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.