2026
Week 8 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · MetLife Stadium
vs
Raiders offensevsJets defense
Season numbers through Week 8: 8 games for Raiders, 8 for Jets. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Raiders won 38–33 from as low as 15% (Q2 0:59, down 20–14). The Jets had been 54% favorites at kickoff. The game turned for good at Q4 4:44: G.Smith pass incomplete short middle to G.Wilson (48% → 53%). The biggest single swing came at Q4 6:11, 21 points for the Jets.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 6:11NYJG.Smith pass deep left to A.Mitchell to LV 13 for 47 yards (T.Stukes).33% → 54%
- 2Q4 0:14NYJG.Smith pass deep left intended for G.Wilson INTERCEPTED by J.Chinn [M.Crosby] at LV -6. Touchback.81% → 99%
- 3Q2 10:56LVA.McNamara kicks 60 yards from NYJ 35 to LV 5. D.Laube for 95 yards, TOUCHDOWN.32% → 49%
- 4Q4 15:00LVK.Cousins pass short left to A.Jeanty to NYJ 13 for 45 yards (J.Sherwood; M.Fitzpatrick).42% → 58%
- 5Q4 4:35NYJJ.Sanders 31 yard field goal is GOOD58% → 73%
- ★Q4 4:44NYJG.Smith pass incomplete short middle to G.Wilson.turning point48% → 53%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. Each play is tagged with the team that had the ball; the bar names the team it helped. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
K.Cousins led the Raiders at +18.4 EPA (19 of 26 for 247). A.Mitchell led the Jets at +13.0 EPA (7 catches for 142).
Raiders
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.Cousins100% | 19/26 | 247 | 3 | 1 | +16.4 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M.Jr.60% | 25 | 76% | 83 | -2.3 | |
| K.Cousins100% | 5 | 15% | 3 | 1 | +2.0 |
| A.Jeanty40% | 2 | 6% | 9 | -0.9 | |
| C.Heyward33% | 1 | 3% | 0 | -2.9 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Bowers86% | 10 | 40% | 7 | 92 | 2 | +9.2 |
| M.Mayer79% | 6 | 24% | 5 | 53 | +1.4 | |
| J.Nailor46% | 4 | 16% | 4 | 38 | 1 | +6.3 |
| A.Jeanty40% | 4 | 16% | 3 | 64 | +3.8 | |
| T.Tucker54% | 1 | 4% | 0 | 0 | -1.3 |
Defense J.Chinn 1 INT, M.Crosby 1 sack, T.III 1 sack · Kicking M.Gay 1/1 FG, 5/5 XP, 8 pts
Jets
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G.Smith100% | 20/32 | 290 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +11.7 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Allen83% | 21 | 78% | 147 | 1 | +4.6 |
| I.Davis17% | 5 | 19% | 15 | -1.3 | |
| G.Smith100% | 1 | 4% | 4 | +0.1 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G.Wilson81% | 12 | 39% | 6 | 83 | +0.9 | |
| A.Mitchell61% | 9 | 29% | 7 | 142 | 1 | +13.0 |
| M.Taylor61% | 5 | 16% | 3 | 19 | -1.2 | |
| B.Allen83% | 2 | 6% | 2 | 6 | -0.3 | |
| K.Sadiq48% | 2 | 6% | 1 | 22 | -0.5 | |
| I.Williams16% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 18 | 1 | +2.2 |
Defense W.IV 1 sack · Kicking J.Sanders 4/4 FG, 3/3 XP, 15 pts
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Tight ends feast
Jets give up 60 yards a game to tight ends (24th), against a league average of 55. Raiders' tight ends produce 120 (1st).
Deep left is open
Jets are worst against deep left throws, allowing +0.53 EPA per attempt. Raiders send 7% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Wideouts get blanketed
Jets give up 121 yards a game to wide receivers (5th), against a league average of 147. Raiders' wide receivers produce 100 (32nd).
Yards per play
Call this one even. Raiders gain 5.5 yards per play (14th). Jets give up 5.1 (9th), with the league at 5.4.
The Raiders lead the series 12–8 since 1999. They have won the last 3. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 8 | LV 38 at NYJ 33 |
| 2023 · Wk 10 | NYJ 12 at LV 16 |
| 2020 · Wk 13 | LV 31 at NYJ 28 |
| 2019 · Wk 12 | LV 3 at NYJ 34 |
| 2017 · Wk 2 | NYJ 20 at LV 45 |
2026 records
| Raiders | Jets | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 4–4 | 2–6 |
| Division | 1–1 | 0–2 |
| Conference | 3–3 | 2–3 |
| Other conference | 1–1 | 0–3 |
| Home | 1–3 | 1–3 |
| Away | 3–1 | 1–3 |
| Last 5 | LLLLW | LWLLL |
| Streak | Won 1 | Lost 3 |
| Points a game | 27.6 – 28.8 | 21.3 – 23.5 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Raiders' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | LV off | Favors LV · Favors NYJ | NYJ def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.02#14 | +0.02#19 | +0.00 | |
| Success rate | 43%#14 | 45%#24 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.5#14 | 5.1#9 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 8%#26 | 9%#11 | 9% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.19#6 | +0.12#25 | +0.03 | |
| Sack rate | 4%#3 | 8%#8 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.21#29 | -0.14#7 | -0.08 | |
| Yards per carry | 3.2#30 | 3.9#15 | 4.1 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 44%#9 | 41%#16 | 41% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 55%#22 | 64%#20 | 61% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 100#32 | 121#5 | 147 | |
| TE yards per game | 120#1 | 60#24 | 55 | |
| TE targets per game | 13.6#1 | 7.8#17 | 7.6 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 53#2 | 27#11 | 32 | |
Raiders: EPA per throw
Jets: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.