2026
Week 8 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · MetLife Stadium
vs
Jets offensevsRaiders defense
Season numbers through Week 8: 8 games for Jets, 8 for Raiders. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Raiders won 38–33 from as low as 15% (Q2 0:59, down 20–14). The Jets had been 54% favorites at kickoff. The game turned for good at Q4 4:44: G.Smith pass incomplete short middle to G.Wilson (48% → 53%). The biggest single swing came at Q4 6:11, 21 points for the Jets.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 6:11NYJG.Smith pass deep left to A.Mitchell to LV 13 for 47 yards (T.Stukes).33% → 54%
- 2Q4 0:14NYJG.Smith pass deep left intended for G.Wilson INTERCEPTED by J.Chinn [M.Crosby] at LV -6. Touchback.81% → 99%
- 3Q2 10:56LVA.McNamara kicks 60 yards from NYJ 35 to LV 5. D.Laube for 95 yards, TOUCHDOWN.32% → 49%
- 4Q4 15:00LVK.Cousins pass short left to A.Jeanty to NYJ 13 for 45 yards (J.Sherwood; M.Fitzpatrick).42% → 58%
- 5Q4 4:35NYJJ.Sanders 31 yard field goal is GOOD58% → 73%
- ★Q4 4:44NYJG.Smith pass incomplete short middle to G.Wilson.turning point48% → 53%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. Each play is tagged with the team that had the ball; the bar names the team it helped. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
K.Cousins led the Raiders at +18.4 EPA (19 of 26 for 247). A.Mitchell led the Jets at +13.0 EPA (7 catches for 142).
Raiders
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.Cousins100% | 19/26 | 247 | 3 | 1 | +16.4 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M.Jr.60% | 25 | 76% | 83 | -2.3 | |
| K.Cousins100% | 5 | 15% | 3 | 1 | +2.0 |
| A.Jeanty40% | 2 | 6% | 9 | -0.9 | |
| C.Heyward33% | 1 | 3% | 0 | -2.9 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Bowers86% | 10 | 40% | 7 | 92 | 2 | +9.2 |
| M.Mayer79% | 6 | 24% | 5 | 53 | +1.4 | |
| J.Nailor46% | 4 | 16% | 4 | 38 | 1 | +6.3 |
| A.Jeanty40% | 4 | 16% | 3 | 64 | +3.8 | |
| T.Tucker54% | 1 | 4% | 0 | 0 | -1.3 |
Defense J.Chinn 1 INT, M.Crosby 1 sack, T.III 1 sack · Kicking M.Gay 1/1 FG, 5/5 XP, 8 pts
Jets
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G.Smith100% | 20/32 | 290 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +11.7 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Allen83% | 21 | 78% | 147 | 1 | +4.6 |
| I.Davis17% | 5 | 19% | 15 | -1.3 | |
| G.Smith100% | 1 | 4% | 4 | +0.1 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G.Wilson81% | 12 | 39% | 6 | 83 | +0.9 | |
| A.Mitchell61% | 9 | 29% | 7 | 142 | 1 | +13.0 |
| M.Taylor61% | 5 | 16% | 3 | 19 | -1.2 | |
| B.Allen83% | 2 | 6% | 2 | 6 | -0.3 | |
| K.Sadiq48% | 2 | 6% | 1 | 22 | -0.5 | |
| I.Williams16% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 18 | 1 | +2.2 |
Defense W.IV 1 sack · Kicking J.Sanders 4/4 FG, 3/3 XP, 15 pts
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Ground game edge
Jets average 4.3 yards per carry (12th). Raiders allow 5.2 (32nd).
Deep left is open
Raiders are worst against deep left throws, allowing +0.73 EPA per attempt. Jets send 8% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Pressure problem
Jets take a sack on 9% of dropbacks (26th). Raiders get home on 7% (16th). League average is 7%.
EPA per play
Call this one even. Jets average +0.04 EPA per play (11th). Raiders allow +0.08 (28th). League average is +0.00.
The Raiders lead the series 12–8 since 1999. They have won the last 3. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 8 | LV 38 at NYJ 33 |
| 2023 · Wk 10 | NYJ 12 at LV 16 |
| 2020 · Wk 13 | LV 31 at NYJ 28 |
| 2019 · Wk 12 | LV 3 at NYJ 34 |
| 2017 · Wk 2 | NYJ 20 at LV 45 |
2026 records
| Raiders | Jets | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 4–4 | 2–6 |
| Division | 1–1 | 0–2 |
| Conference | 3–3 | 2–3 |
| Other conference | 1–1 | 0–3 |
| Home | 1–3 | 1–3 |
| Away | 3–1 | 1–3 |
| Last 5 | LLLLW | LWLLL |
| Streak | Won 1 | Lost 3 |
| Points a game | 27.6 – 28.8 | 21.3 – 23.5 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Raiders' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | NYJ off | Favors NYJ · Favors LV | LV def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.04#11 | +0.08#28 | +0.00 | |
| Success rate | 46%#11 | 48%#30 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.6#11 | 6.2#32 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 11%#5 | 11%#31 | 9% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.13#10 | +0.16#27 | +0.03 | |
| Sack rate | 9%#26 | 7%#16 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.09#19 | -0.03#24 | -0.08 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.3#12 | 5.2#32 | 4.1 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 39%#22 | 44%#25 | 41% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 46%#32 | 71%#27 | 61% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 157#12 | 163#25 | 147 | |
| TE yards per game | 51#21 | 56#19 | 55 | |
| TE targets per game | 7.9#12 | 8.6#26 | 7.6 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 31#14 | 32#16 | 32 | |
Jets: EPA per throw
Raiders: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.