2026
Week 8 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · Highmark Stadium
vs
Ravens offensevsBills defense
Season numbers through Week 8: 8 games for Ravens, 7 for Bills. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Bills won 36–10 and were favored the whole way, never below 59%. The biggest single swing came at Q2 1:21, 14 points for the Bills.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q2 1:21BUFJ.Fagnano pass short left intended for Z.Flowers INTERCEPTED by D.Igbinosun (G.Stone) at 50. D.Igbinosun to BAL 33 for 17 yards (R.Stanley; J.Lane).68% → 82%
- 2Q1 4:17BALJ.Allen pass short middle intended for J.Hawes INTERCEPTED by B.Washington at BUF 17. B.Washington to BUF 17 for no gain.16% → 29%
- 3Q2 14:10BUFT.Huntley sacked at BAL 33 for -7 yards (C.Bishop). FUMBLES (C.Bishop) [C.Bishop], touched at BAL 32, RECOVERED by BUF-K.Elarms-Orr at BAL 20.64% → 74%
- 4Q2 7:41BUFT.Loop 34 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright68% → 77%
- 5Q2 2:00BALJ.Allen pass short middle to D.Moore to BAL 20 for 19 yards (M.Starks; R.Smith). The Replay Official reviewed the runner was down by contact…20% → 28%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
J.Lane led the Ravens at +0.9 EPA (1 catches for 13). J.Allen led the Bills at +6.9 EPA (21 of 34 for 289).
Ravens
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Fagnano40% | 10/21 | 91 | 1 | 3 | -10.3 | |
| T.Huntley20% | 2/4 | 0 | 1 | -9.3 | ||
| L.Jackson2% | 0/1 | 0 | -0.6 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Henry45% | 11 | 58% | 53 | 1 | +0.9 |
| J.Hill49% | 3 | 16% | 15 | +0.3 | |
| J.Fagnano40% | 3 | 16% | 3 | -4.0 | |
| R.Ali6% | 2 | 11% | 5 | -0.8 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Hill49% | 8 | 31% | 4 | 20 | -4.1 | |
| Z.Flowers82% | 5 | 19% | 0 | 0 | -7.3 | |
| M.Andrews57% | 4 | 15% | 3 | 14 | +0.1 | |
| R.Bateman76% | 3 | 12% | 1 | 22 | +0.0 | |
| D.Henry45% | 2 | 8% | 2 | 7 | -0.4 | |
| J.Cuevas25% | 2 | 8% | 1 | 15 | +0.2 | |
| J.Lane65% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 13 | +0.9 | |
| M.Hibner41% | 1 | 4% | 0 | 0 | -0.6 |
Defense B.Washington 1 INT, N.Madubuike 0.5 sacks, M.Green 0.5 sacks · Kicking T.Loop 1/2 FG (long 26)
Bills
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Allen95% | 21/34 | 289 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +6.4 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Cook54% | 21 | 51% | 80 | 1 | +1.6 |
| J.Allen95% | 7 | 17% | 30 | 1 | +0.5 |
| R.Davis21% | 6 | 15% | 30 | +0.6 | |
| T.Johnson24% | 4 | 10% | 4 | -2.5 | |
| K.Allen5% | 2 | 5% | -2 | -2.6 | |
| D.Moore66% | 1 | 2% | 4 | +0.0 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Moore66% | 7 | 21% | 4 | 82 | 1 | +1.8 |
| K.Shakir67% | 6 | 18% | 5 | 64 | +5.4 | |
| D.Kincaid57% | 6 | 18% | 4 | 86 | 1 | +6.4 |
| T.Johnson24% | 3 | 9% | 3 | 19 | +1.3 | |
| J.Cook54% | 3 | 9% | 2 | 21 | +1.1 | |
| K.Coleman77% | 3 | 9% | 1 | 4 | -4.9 | |
| D.Knox70% | 2 | 6% | 1 | 6 | -0.5 | |
| J.Hawes39% | 2 | 6% | 1 | 7 | -6.1 | |
| J.Palmer9% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.5 |
Defense D.Igbinosun 1 INT, G.Rousseau 1 sack, C.Bishop 1 sack, L.Jackson 1 sack · Kicking T.Bass 3/3 FG (long 56)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Tight ends feast
Bills give up 9.1 targets a game to tight ends (29th), against a league average of 7.6. Ravens' tight ends produce 7.8 (13th).
Deep right is open
Bills are worst against deep right throws, allowing +0.64 EPA per attempt. Ravens send 4% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Pressure problem
Ravens take a sack on 9% of dropbacks (27th). Bills get home on 5% (26th). League average is 7%.
Yards per play
Call this one even. Ravens gain 5.8 yards per play (9th). Bills give up 5.4 (16th), with the league at 5.4.
The Bills lead the series 8–7 since 1999. They have won the last 3. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 8 | BAL 10 at BUF 36 |
| 2025 · Wk 1 | BAL 40 at BUF 41 |
| 2024 · Wk 20 · playoffs | BAL 25 at BUF 27 |
| 2024 · Wk 4 | BUF 10 at BAL 35 |
| 2022 · Wk 4 | BUF 23 at BAL 20 |
2026 records
| Ravens | Bills | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 4–4 | 6–1 |
| Division | 0–2 | 0–1 |
| Conference | 2–3 | 4–1 |
| Other conference | 2–1 | 2–0 |
| Home | 1–2 | 3–1 |
| Away | 3–2 | 3–0 |
| Last 5 | WWLLL | WLWWW |
| Streak | Lost 3 | Won 3 |
| Points a game | 22.4 – 25.4 | 33.3 – 25.9 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Ravens' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | BAL off | Favors BAL · Favors BUF | BUF def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.02#15 | +0.06#23 | +0.00 | |
| Success rate | 46%#12 | 46%#26 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.8#9 | 5.4#16 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 11%#7 | 10%#23 | 9% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.09#14 | +0.12#24 | +0.03 | |
| Sack rate | 9%#27 | 5%#26 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.08#16 | -0.08#17 | -0.08 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.5#8 | 3.6#9 | 4.1 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 40%#15 | 42%#21 | 41% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 59%#15 | 68%#24 | 61% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 148#15 | 154#24 | 147 | |
| TE yards per game | 53#19 | 71#29 | 55 | |
| TE targets per game | 7.8#13 | 9.1#29 | 7.6 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 22#25 | 44#29 | 32 | |
Ravens: EPA per throw
Bills: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.