2026
Week 8 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · Highmark Stadium
vs
Bills offensevsRavens defense
Season numbers through Week 8: 7 games for Bills, 8 for Ravens. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Bills won 36–10 and were favored the whole way, never below 59%. The biggest single swing came at Q2 1:21, 14 points for the Bills.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q2 1:21BUFJ.Fagnano pass short left intended for Z.Flowers INTERCEPTED by D.Igbinosun (G.Stone) at 50. D.Igbinosun to BAL 33 for 17 yards (R.Stanley; J.Lane).68% → 82%
- 2Q1 4:17BALJ.Allen pass short middle intended for J.Hawes INTERCEPTED by B.Washington at BUF 17. B.Washington to BUF 17 for no gain.16% → 29%
- 3Q2 14:10BUFT.Huntley sacked at BAL 33 for -7 yards (C.Bishop). FUMBLES (C.Bishop) [C.Bishop], touched at BAL 32, RECOVERED by BUF-K.Elarms-Orr at BAL 20.64% → 74%
- 4Q2 7:41BUFT.Loop 34 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright68% → 77%
- 5Q2 2:00BALJ.Allen pass short middle to D.Moore to BAL 20 for 19 yards (M.Starks; R.Smith). The Replay Official reviewed the runner was down by contact…20% → 28%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
J.Lane led the Ravens at +0.9 EPA (1 catches for 13). J.Allen led the Bills at +6.9 EPA (21 of 34 for 289).
Ravens
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Fagnano40% | 10/21 | 91 | 1 | 3 | -10.3 | |
| T.Huntley20% | 2/4 | 0 | 1 | -9.3 | ||
| L.Jackson2% | 0/1 | 0 | -0.6 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Henry45% | 11 | 58% | 53 | 1 | +0.9 |
| J.Hill49% | 3 | 16% | 15 | +0.3 | |
| J.Fagnano40% | 3 | 16% | 3 | -4.0 | |
| R.Ali6% | 2 | 11% | 5 | -0.8 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Hill49% | 8 | 31% | 4 | 20 | -4.1 | |
| Z.Flowers82% | 5 | 19% | 0 | 0 | -7.3 | |
| M.Andrews57% | 4 | 15% | 3 | 14 | +0.1 | |
| R.Bateman76% | 3 | 12% | 1 | 22 | +0.0 | |
| D.Henry45% | 2 | 8% | 2 | 7 | -0.4 | |
| J.Cuevas25% | 2 | 8% | 1 | 15 | +0.2 | |
| J.Lane65% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 13 | +0.9 | |
| M.Hibner41% | 1 | 4% | 0 | 0 | -0.6 |
Defense B.Washington 1 INT, N.Madubuike 0.5 sacks, M.Green 0.5 sacks · Kicking T.Loop 1/2 FG (long 26)
Bills
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Allen95% | 21/34 | 289 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +6.4 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Cook54% | 21 | 51% | 80 | 1 | +1.6 |
| J.Allen95% | 7 | 17% | 30 | 1 | +0.5 |
| R.Davis21% | 6 | 15% | 30 | +0.6 | |
| T.Johnson24% | 4 | 10% | 4 | -2.5 | |
| K.Allen5% | 2 | 5% | -2 | -2.6 | |
| D.Moore66% | 1 | 2% | 4 | +0.0 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Moore66% | 7 | 21% | 4 | 82 | 1 | +1.8 |
| K.Shakir67% | 6 | 18% | 5 | 64 | +5.4 | |
| D.Kincaid57% | 6 | 18% | 4 | 86 | 1 | +6.4 |
| T.Johnson24% | 3 | 9% | 3 | 19 | +1.3 | |
| J.Cook54% | 3 | 9% | 2 | 21 | +1.1 | |
| K.Coleman77% | 3 | 9% | 1 | 4 | -4.9 | |
| D.Knox70% | 2 | 6% | 1 | 6 | -0.5 | |
| J.Hawes39% | 2 | 6% | 1 | 7 | -6.1 | |
| J.Palmer9% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.5 |
Defense D.Igbinosun 1 INT, G.Rousseau 1 sack, C.Bishop 1 sack, L.Jackson 1 sack · Kicking T.Bass 3/3 FG (long 56)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Red zone touchdowns
Bills score a touchdown on 72% of red zone trips (3rd). Ravens allow 68% (22nd).
Deep middle is open
Ravens are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +1.08 EPA per attempt. Bills send 8% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Tight ends go quiet
Ravens give up 6.0 targets a game to tight ends (2nd), against a league average of 7.6. Bills' tight ends produce 7.1 (19th).
Explosive play rate
Call this one even. Bills create explosive plays on 15% of snaps (1st). Ravens give them up at 8% (10th).
The Bills lead the series 8–7 since 1999. They have won the last 3. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 8 | BAL 10 at BUF 36 |
| 2025 · Wk 1 | BAL 40 at BUF 41 |
| 2024 · Wk 20 · playoffs | BAL 25 at BUF 27 |
| 2024 · Wk 4 | BUF 10 at BAL 35 |
| 2022 · Wk 4 | BUF 23 at BAL 20 |
2026 records
| Ravens | Bills | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 4–4 | 6–1 |
| Division | 0–2 | 0–1 |
| Conference | 2–3 | 4–1 |
| Other conference | 2–1 | 2–0 |
| Home | 1–2 | 3–1 |
| Away | 3–2 | 3–0 |
| Last 5 | WWLLL | WLWWW |
| Streak | Lost 3 | Won 3 |
| Points a game | 22.4 – 25.4 | 33.3 – 25.9 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Ravens' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | BUF off | Favors BUF · Favors BAL | BAL def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.18#1 | +0.01#17 | +0.00 | |
| Success rate | 49%#4 | 44%#21 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 6.5#2 | 5.4#14 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 15%#1 | 8%#10 | 9% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.23#4 | +0.07#21 | +0.03 | |
| Sack rate | 6%#13 | 6%#18 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | +0.02#6 | -0.06#22 | -0.08 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.5#7 | 3.6#10 | 4.1 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 47%#6 | 40%#12 | 41% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 72%#3 | 68%#22 | 61% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 145#17 | 178#28 | 147 | |
| TE yards per game | 64#9 | 47#11 | 55 | |
| TE targets per game | 7.1#19 | 6.0#2 | 7.6 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 46#7 | 18#2 | 32 | |
Bills: EPA per throw
Ravens: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.