2026
Week 8 · Monday 8:15 PM ET · Lumen Field
vs
Bears offensevsSeahawks defense
Season numbers through Week 8: 8 games for Bears, 8 for Seahawks. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Bears won 34–17; their low point was 38% at Q1 14:16. The Seahawks had been 60% favorites at kickoff. The game turned for good at Q1 8:49: C.Williams pass short left to L.Burden to SEA 40 for 5 yards (T.Okada) (50% → 53%). The biggest single swing came at Q4 13:14, 14 points for the Seahawks.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 13:14CHIC.Williams pass short right to C.Loveland to CHI 21 for 8 yards (D.Lawrence; J.Jobe). FUMBLES (D.Lawrence), RECOVERED by SEA-D.Lawrence at CHI 25.…12% → 27%
- 2Q2 0:37SEAS.Darnold pass deep left to J.Smith-Njigba for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN.24% → 37%
- 3Q4 14:13SEAJ.Myers 33 yard field goal is BLOCKED (A.Booker)80% → 91%
- 4Q4 9:01CHIK.Raymond right end to SEA 5 for 39 yards (N.Pritchett).73% → 83%
- 5Q3 13:27SEAS.Darnold sacked at SEA 19 for -8 yards (M.Sweat).57% → 65%
- ★Q1 8:49CHIC.Williams pass short left to L.Burden to SEA 40 for 5 yards (T.Okada).turning point50% → 53%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. Each play is tagged with the team that had the ball; the bar names the team it helped. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
C.Williams led the Bears at +7.4 EPA (24 of 34 for 247). J.Smith-Njigba led the Seahawks at +6.0 EPA (6 catches for 118).
Bears
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Williams100% | 24/34 | 247 | 1 | 1 | +7.7 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Swift77% | 27 | 77% | 69 | 3 | +1.9 |
| R.Johnson20% | 5 | 14% | 17 | +1.1 | |
| C.Williams100% | 2 | 6% | 1 | -0.3 | |
| K.Raymond69% | 1 | 3% | 39 | +4.0 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Loveland93% | 9 | 26% | 7 | 65 | -1.2 | |
| L.III57% | 9 | 26% | 7 | 56 | 1 | +2.8 |
| R.Odunze90% | 6 | 18% | 4 | 87 | +6.4 | |
| K.Raymond69% | 3 | 9% | 2 | 14 | -0.3 | |
| D.Swift77% | 3 | 9% | 2 | 10 | +0.1 | |
| Z.Thomas19% | 3 | 9% | 1 | 4 | -1.6 | |
| R.Johnson20% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 11 | +0.8 |
Defense J.Lynch 1 INT, D.Bush 1 sack, J.Simmons 1 sack, M.Sweat 1 sack · Kicking C.Santos 2/2 FG, 4/4 XP, 10 pts
Seahawks
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S.Darnold100% | 17/34 | 188 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -6.5 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Price48% | 10 | 53% | 29 | -2.2 | |
| Z.Charbonnet37% | 6 | 32% | 23 | -0.4 | |
| S.Darnold100% | 2 | 11% | 20 | +0.2 | |
| G.Holani17% | 1 | 5% | 9 | -0.3 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Smith-Njigba97% | 11 | 32% | 6 | 118 | 1 | +6.0 |
| T.Horton68% | 6 | 18% | 3 | 26 | +2.6 | |
| A.Barner95% | 5 | 15% | 2 | 23 | -6.1 | |
| Z.Charbonnet37% | 4 | 12% | 3 | 6 | -2.9 | |
| J.Price48% | 4 | 12% | 2 | 8 | -1.3 | |
| C.Kupp92% | 3 | 9% | 1 | 7 | 1 | -1.4 |
| G.Holani17% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -1.2 |
Defense M.Morris 1 sack · Kicking J.Myers 1/2 FG (33 blocked), 0/1 XP, 3 pts
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Red zone touchdowns
Bears score a touchdown on 59% of red zone trips (18th). Seahawks allow 88% (32nd).
Deep middle is open
Seahawks are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +0.88 EPA per attempt. Bears send 5% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Tight ends go quiet
Seahawks give up 38 yards a game to tight ends (3rd), against a league average of 55. Bears' tight ends produce 54 (18th).
EPA per play
Call this one even. Bears average +0.06 EPA per play (8th). Seahawks allow -0.09 (5th). League average is +0.00.
The Seahawks lead the series 8–7 since 1999. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 8 | CHI 34 at SEA 17 |
| 2024 · Wk 17 | SEA 6 at CHI 3 |
| 2021 · Wk 16 | CHI 25 at SEA 24 |
| 2018 · Wk 2 | SEA 17 at CHI 24 |
| 2015 · Wk 3 | CHI 0 at SEA 26 |
2026 records
| Bears | Seahawks | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6–2 | 4–4 |
| Division | 0–2 | 1–1 |
| Conference | 4–2 | 1–3 |
| Other conference | 2–0 | 3–1 |
| Home | 3–1 | 3–2 |
| Away | 3–1 | 1–2 |
| Last 5 | WLWWW | WLLWL |
| Streak | Won 3 | Lost 1 |
| Points a game | 26.8 – 20.0 | 23.1 – 19.9 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Bears' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | CHI off | Favors CHI · Favors SEA | SEA def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.06#8 | -0.09#5 | +0.00 | |
| Success rate | 47%#8 | 39%#2 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.5#15 | 4.2#1 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 10%#10 | 5%#2 | 9% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.11#12 | -0.10#4 | +0.03 | |
| Sack rate | 6%#17 | 7%#15 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.02#11 | -0.11#10 | -0.08 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.3#11 | 3.4#3 | 4.1 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 44%#7 | 34%#7 | 41% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 59%#18 | 88%#32 | 61% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 166#8 | 100#1 | 147 | |
| TE yards per game | 54#18 | 38#3 | 55 | |
| TE targets per game | 8.8#6 | 6.9#11 | 7.6 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 34#11 | 31#14 | 32 | |
Bears: EPA per throw
Seahawks: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.