2025
Week 8 · Monday 8:15 PM ET · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
vs
Commanders offensevsChiefs defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Commanders, 17 for Chiefs. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Chiefs won 28–7 and were favored the whole way, never below 71%. The biggest single swing came at Q1 9:49, 14 points for the Chiefs.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q1 9:49KCM.Mariota pass short left intended for D.Samuel INTERCEPTED by M.Danna at KC 22. M.Danna to KC 32 for 10 yards (D.Samuel).71% → 85%
- 2Q2 13:09WASP.Mahomes pass short middle intended for T.Kelce INTERCEPTED by B.Wagner at WAS 40. B.Wagner to WAS 41 for 1 yard (T.Kelce; M.Caliendo).16% → 26%
- 3Q2 1:04WASM.Mariota pass incomplete short right to T.McLaurin. The Replay Official reviewed the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. M.Mariota…13% → 22%
- 4Q3 10:19KCP.Mahomes pass short right to K.Hunt for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.80% → 88%
- 5Q3 12:48KCP.Mahomes pass short right to T.Kelce to WAS 9 for 38 yards (M.Sainristil).77% → 83%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
J.McNichols led the Commanders at +4.6 EPA (1 carries for 4). P.Mahomes led the Chiefs at +13.9 EPA (25 of 34 for 299).
Commanders
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M.Mariota100% | 21/30 | 213 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -7.4 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Croskey-Merritt57% | 9 | 45% | 25 | -1.3 | |
| M.Mariota100% | 8 | 40% | 28 | +0.3 | |
| J.McNichols43% | 1 | 5% | 4 | +0.0 | |
| D.Sr.74% | 1 | 5% | 1 | -0.5 | |
| C.Jr.4% | 1 | 5% | 2 | -0.5 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Z.Ertz62% | 6 | 20% | 4 | 16 | -5.1 | |
| J.McNichols43% | 6 | 20% | 5 | 64 | +4.6 | |
| D.Sr.74% | 6 | 20% | 3 | 11 | -8.3 | |
| T.McLaurin47% | 4 | 13% | 3 | 54 | 1 | +4.3 |
| L.McCaffrey51% | 3 | 10% | 3 | 24 | +0.4 | |
| J.Lane43% | 2 | 7% | 1 | 0 | -1.9 | |
| J.Bates55% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 22 | +1.4 | |
| B.Sinnott21% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 22 | +1.9 | |
| J.Croskey-Merritt57% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.4 |
Defense J.Martin 2 sacks, B.Wagner 1 INT, M.Lattimore 1 INT, J.Newton 1 sack
Chiefs
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P.Mahomes100% | 25/34 | 299 | 3 | 2 | 3 | +13.7 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I.Pacheco58% | 12 | 40% | 58 | -0.5 | |
| K.Hunt32% | 9 | 30% | 40 | 1 | +3.4 |
| P.Mahomes100% | 4 | 13% | 30 | +0.2 | |
| B.Smith13% | 3 | 10% | 8 | -1.3 | |
| R.Rice86% | 2 | 7% | 12 | +1.1 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R.Rice86% | 9 | 28% | 9 | 93 | 1 | +7.2 |
| T.Kelce84% | 8 | 25% | 6 | 99 | 1 | +2.3 |
| X.Worthy84% | 7 | 22% | 5 | 53 | +3.0 | |
| N.Gray55% | 4 | 13% | 2 | 23 | -0.8 | |
| J.Smith-Schuster30% | 2 | 6% | 2 | 29 | +2.9 | |
| K.Hunt32% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 2 | 1 | +3.8 |
| M.Brown38% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -3.3 |
Defense M.Danna 1 sack and 1 INT, J.Cochrane 1 INT, G.Karlaftis 1 sack
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Third downs favor Commanders
Commanders convert 39% of third downs (22nd). Chiefs allow 44% (27th).
Deep middle is open
Chiefs are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +0.83 EPA per attempt. Commanders send 4% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Tight ends go quiet
Chiefs give up 5.9 targets a game to tight ends (4th), against a league average of 7.3. Commanders' tight ends produce 6.1 (22nd).
Yards per play
Call this one even. Commanders gain 5.6 yards per play (12th). Chiefs give up 5.3 (13th), with the league at 5.4.
The Chiefs lead the series 7–0 since 1999 (they first met in 2001). They have won the last 7. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 8 | WAS 7 at KC 28 |
| 2021 · Wk 6 | KC 31 at WAS 13 |
| 2017 · Wk 4 | WAS 20 at KC 29 |
| 2013 · Wk 14 | KC 45 at WAS 10 |
| 2009 · Wk 6 | KC 14 at WAS 6 |
2025 records
| Commanders | Chiefs | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5–12 | 6–11 |
| Division | 3–3 | 1–5 |
| Conference | 3–9 | 3–9 |
| Other conference | 2–3 | 3–2 |
| Home | 2–6 | 5–4 |
| Away | 3–6 | 1–7 |
| Last 5 | LWLLW | LLLLL |
| Streak | Won 1 | Lost 6 |
| Points a game | 20.9 – 26.5 | 21.3 – 19.3 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Commanders' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | WAS off | Favors WAS · Favors KC | KC def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.01#17 | -0.02#12 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 46%#9 | 44%#14 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.6#12 | 5.3#13 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 10%#11 | 9%#12 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.01#17 | 0.00#15 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 7%#20 | 6%#19 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.04#11 | -0.09#9 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.5#9 | 3.9#7 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 39%#22 | 44%#27 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 67%#6 | 55%#10 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 133#18 | 129#12 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 43#24 | 48#11 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 6.1#22 | 5.9#4 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 20#31 | 29#14 | 32 | |
Commanders: EPA per throw
Chiefs: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.