2025
Week 17 · Thursday 4:30 PM ET · U.S. Bank Stadium
vs
Lions offensevsVikings defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Lions, 17 for Vikings. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Vikings won 23–10 from as low as 17% (Q1 13:32, tied 0–0). The Lions had been 76% favorites at kickoff. The game turned for good at Q3 2:57: J.Goff pass short middle intended for A.St. Brown INTERCEPTED by H.Smith at DET 43. H.Smith to DET 42 for 1 yard (A.St. Brown) (46% → 63%). The biggest single swing came at Q4 3:52, 22 points for the Vikings.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 3:52MINJ.Addison right end for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN.68% → 90%
- 2Q4 15:00MINJ.Goff sacked at DET 39 for -8 yards (sack split by D.Turner and A.Van Ginkel). FUMBLES (D.Turner) [D.Turner], RECOVERED by MIN-J.Redmond at DET 40.60% → 78%
- 3Q3 2:57MINJ.Goff pass short middle intended for A.St. Brown INTERCEPTED by H.Smith at DET 43. H.Smith to DET 42 for 1 yard (A.St. Brown).turning point46% → 63%
- 4Q3 3:07MINW.Reichard 52 yard field goal is GOOD37% → 48%
- 5Q2 10:22DETJ.Goff pass deep middle to I.TeSlaa to DET 42 for 28 yards (F.Moreau).49% → 59%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
I.TeSlaa led the Lions at +6.8 EPA (3 catches for 49). J.Addison led the Vikings at +5.4 EPA (0 catches for 0).
Lions
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Goff100% | 18/29 | 197 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -7.9 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Gibbs69% | 17 | 57% | 41 | -10.2 | |
| D.Montgomery34% | 10 | 33% | 25 | -1.7 | |
| J.Goff100% | 3 | 10% | 2 | -9.8 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.Brown83% | 13 | 45% | 8 | 68 | -0.4 | |
| I.TeSlaa52% | 4 | 14% | 3 | 49 | 1 | +6.8 |
| J.Williams83% | 3 | 10% | 2 | 37 | +2.0 | |
| J.Gibbs69% | 3 | 10% | 2 | 23 | -0.9 | |
| K.Raymond9% | 2 | 7% | 1 | 5 | -2.9 | |
| D.Montgomery34% | 2 | 7% | 2 | 15 | +0.4 | |
| A.Firkser55% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.5 | |
| G.Ricci50% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.9 |
Defense A.Muhammad 2 sacks, A.Hutchinson 2 sacks, A.Anzalone 1 sack, T.Williams 1 sack · Kicking J.Bates 1/1 FG (long 48)
Vikings
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M.Brosmer100% | 9/16 | 51 | 7 | -17.6 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.Jones65% | 18 | 64% | 53 | 1 | -3.3 |
| T.Chandler24% | 7 | 25% | 24 | -1.0 | |
| M.Brosmer100% | 2 | 7% | 16 | +1.8 | |
| J.Addison78% | 1 | 4% | 65 | 1 | +5.9 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Jefferson98% | 5 | 36% | 4 | 30 | +0.8 | |
| A.Jones65% | 4 | 29% | 3 | 10 | -2.9 | |
| J.Oliver93% | 2 | 14% | 1 | 8 | +0.2 | |
| J.Nailor43% | 1 | 7% | 0 | 0 | -1.3 | |
| B.Sims26% | 1 | 7% | 1 | 3 | -0.5 | |
| J.Addison78% | 1 | 7% | 0 | 0 | -0.6 |
Defense H.Smith 1 sack and 1 INT, B.Murphy 1 INT, A.Ginkel 1.5 sacks, B.Cashman 1 sack · Kicking W.Reichard 3/3 FG (long 56)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Ground game edge
Lions average 4.7 yards per carry (5th). Vikings allow 3.8 (6th).
Deep middle is open
Vikings are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +1.35 EPA per attempt. Lions send 5% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Tight ends go quiet
Vikings give up 6.5 targets a game to tight ends (7th), against a league average of 7.3. Lions' tight ends produce 5.4 (31st).
Yards per play
Call this one even. Lions gain 6.1 yards per play (4th). Vikings give up 4.7 (3rd), with the league at 5.4.
The Vikings lead the series 36–19 since 1999. Nov 1, 2026, at Ford Field: the Lions won 19–15. Jared Goff started at quarterback for the Lions and Kyler Murray for the Vikings; Dan Campbell and Kevin O'Connell coached.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 8 | MIN 15 at DET 19 |
| 2025 · Wk 17 | DET 10 at MIN 23 |
| 2025 · Wk 9 | MIN 27 at DET 24 |
| 2024 · Wk 18 | MIN 9 at DET 31 |
| 2024 · Wk 7 | DET 31 at MIN 29 |
2025 records
| Lions | Vikings | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9–8 | 9–8 |
| Division | 2–4 | 4–2 |
| Conference | 6–6 | 7–5 |
| Other conference | 3–2 | 2–3 |
| Home | 5–3 | 4–4 |
| Away | 4–5 | 5–4 |
| Last 5 | WLLLW | WWWWW |
| Streak | Won 1 | Won 5 |
| Points a game | 28.3 – 24.3 | 20.2 – 19.6 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Lions' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | DET off | Favors DET · Favors MIN | MIN def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.08#6 | -0.10#3 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 45%#12 | 41%#5 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 6.1#4 | 4.7#3 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 10%#8 | 9%#11 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.17#4 | -0.15#2 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 6%#14 | 10%#2 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.05#16 | -0.08#13 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.7#5 | 3.8#6 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 39%#20 | 35%#2 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 64%#8 | 45%#3 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 181#3 | 116#2 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 40#26 | 42#4 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 5.4#31 | 6.5#7 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 47#4 | 19#1 | 32 | |
Lions: EPA per throw
Vikings: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.