2025
Week 6 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · Hard Rock Stadium
vs
Chargers offensevsDolphins defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 18 games for Chargers, 17 for Dolphins. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Chargers won 29–27; their low point was 39% at Q4 0:46. The game turned for good at Q4 0:34: J.Herbert pass short left to L.McConkey ran ob at MIA 17 for 42 yards (J.Jones) (42% → 75%).
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 0:34LACJ.Herbert pass short left to L.McConkey ran ob at MIA 17 for 42 yards (J.Jones).turning point42% → 75%
- 2Q4 0:52MIAT.Tagovailoa pass short right to D.Waller for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.34% → 60%
- 3Q4 0:09LACC.Dicker 33 yard field goal is GOOD75% → 89%
- 4Q2 0:54MIAT.Tagovailoa pass deep left to J.Waddle to LAC 17 for 45 yards.41% → 55%
- 5Q4 0:05MIAT.Tagovailoa pass short right intended for N.Westbrook-Ikhine INTERCEPTED by D.James at MIA 40. D.James ran ob at MIA 19 for 21 yards.87% → 100%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. Each play is tagged with the team that had the ball; the bar names the team it helped. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
J.Herbert led the Chargers at +14.9 EPA (29 of 38 for 264). D.Achane led the Dolphins at +3.2 EPA (16 carries for 128).
Chargers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Herbert100% | 29/38 | 264 | 2 | 1 | +12.6 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.Vidal67% | 18 | 72% | 124 | +0.1 | |
| H.Haskins31% | 6 | 24% | 14 | -2.6 | |
| J.Herbert100% | 1 | 4% | 2 | +2.3 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L.McConkey69% | 9 | 24% | 7 | 100 | 1 | +5.9 |
| O.II73% | 8 | 21% | 7 | 68 | -2.4 | |
| K.Allen56% | 7 | 18% | 4 | 27 | +0.4 | |
| T.Harris83% | 5 | 13% | 4 | 27 | +2.0 | |
| K.Vidal67% | 4 | 11% | 3 | 14 | 1 | +1.0 |
| W.Dissly41% | 2 | 5% | 2 | 18 | +1.2 | |
| K.Lambert-Smith28% | 2 | 5% | 1 | 1 | -1.1 | |
| H.Haskins31% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 9 | +0.8 |
Defense T.Jefferson 1 INT, D.James 1 INT, B.St-Juste 1 INT, O.Oweh 1 sack · Kicking C.Dicker 5/5 FG (long 35)
Dolphins
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Tagovailoa97% | 21/32 | 205 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0.0 |
| J.Waddle78% | 1/1 | 8 | -0.6 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Achane85% | 16 | 76% | 128 | 2 | +7.0 |
| O.II22% | 2 | 10% | 1 | -0.4 | |
| A.Ingold37% | 1 | 5% | 3 | -0.3 | |
| T.Tagovailoa97% | 1 | 5% | 4 | -0.2 | |
| M.Washington44% | 1 | 5% | 1 | -0.4 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Waddle78% | 8 | 27% | 6 | 95 | +1.7 | |
| D.Achane85% | 6 | 20% | 4 | 22 | -3.8 | |
| M.Washington44% | 5 | 17% | 4 | 22 | +1.8 | |
| D.Waller66% | 3 | 10% | 2 | 12 | 1 | +2.6 |
| J.Hill61% | 3 | 10% | 3 | 31 | +1.3 | |
| A.Ingold37% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 22 | +1.5 | |
| N.Westbrook-Ikhine63% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | |
| D.Eskridge20% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.3 | |
| T.Conner5% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 8 | +0.6 | |
| O.II22% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 1 | -0.5 |
Defense K.Grant 1 sack · Kicking R.Patterson 2/3 FG (long 47)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Third downs favor Chargers
Chargers convert 45% of third downs (5th). Dolphins allow 41% (17th).
Deep middle is open
Dolphins are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +0.54 EPA per attempt. Chargers send 2% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Pressure problem
Chargers take a sack on 10% of dropbacks (28th). Dolphins get home on 7% (13th). League average is 7%.
EPA per play
Call this one even. Chargers average -0.04 EPA per play (25th). Dolphins allow +0.09 (26th). League average is +0.01.
The Dolphins lead the series 12–6 since 1999. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 6 | LAC 29 at MIA 27 |
| 2023 · Wk 1 | MIA 36 at LAC 34 |
| 2022 · Wk 14 | MIA 17 at LAC 23 |
| 2020 · Wk 10 | LAC 21 at MIA 29 |
| 2019 · Wk 4 | LAC 30 at MIA 10 |
2025 records
| Chargers | Dolphins | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11–6 | 7–10 |
| Division | 5–1 | 3–3 |
| Conference | 8–4 | 3–9 |
| Other conference | 3–2 | 4–1 |
| Home | 6–3 | 5–4 |
| Away | 5–3 | 2–6 |
| Last 5 | WWWLL | WLLWL |
| Streak | Lost 2 | Lost 1 |
| Points a game | 21.6 – 20.0 | 20.4 – 24.9 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Chargers' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | LAC off | Favors LAC · Favors MIA | MIA def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.04#25 | +0.09#26 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 43%#22 | 48%#29 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.2#22 | 5.9#26 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 9%#21 | 11%#25 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.07#26 | +0.13#26 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 10%#28 | 7%#13 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.08#23 | -0.03#20 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 3.9#25 | 4.6#25 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 45%#5 | 41%#17 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 47%#29 | 65%#26 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 155#10 | 127#9 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 51#18 | 66#29 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 5.8#26 | 8.2#25 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 23#27 | 37#25 | 32 | |
Chargers: EPA per throw
Dolphins: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.