2025
Week 6 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · Hard Rock Stadium
vs
Dolphins offensevsChargers defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Dolphins, 18 for Chargers. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Chargers won 29–27; their low point was 39% at Q4 0:46. The game turned for good at Q4 0:34: J.Herbert pass short left to L.McConkey ran ob at MIA 17 for 42 yards (J.Jones) (42% → 75%).
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 0:34LACJ.Herbert pass short left to L.McConkey ran ob at MIA 17 for 42 yards (J.Jones).turning point42% → 75%
- 2Q4 0:52MIAT.Tagovailoa pass short right to D.Waller for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.34% → 60%
- 3Q4 0:09LACC.Dicker 33 yard field goal is GOOD75% → 89%
- 4Q2 0:54MIAT.Tagovailoa pass deep left to J.Waddle to LAC 17 for 45 yards.41% → 55%
- 5Q4 0:05MIAT.Tagovailoa pass short right intended for N.Westbrook-Ikhine INTERCEPTED by D.James at MIA 40. D.James ran ob at MIA 19 for 21 yards.87% → 100%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. Each play is tagged with the team that had the ball; the bar names the team it helped. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
J.Herbert led the Chargers at +14.9 EPA (29 of 38 for 264). D.Achane led the Dolphins at +3.2 EPA (16 carries for 128).
Chargers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Herbert100% | 29/38 | 264 | 2 | 1 | +12.6 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.Vidal67% | 18 | 72% | 124 | +0.1 | |
| H.Haskins31% | 6 | 24% | 14 | -2.6 | |
| J.Herbert100% | 1 | 4% | 2 | +2.3 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L.McConkey69% | 9 | 24% | 7 | 100 | 1 | +5.9 |
| O.II73% | 8 | 21% | 7 | 68 | -2.4 | |
| K.Allen56% | 7 | 18% | 4 | 27 | +0.4 | |
| T.Harris83% | 5 | 13% | 4 | 27 | +2.0 | |
| K.Vidal67% | 4 | 11% | 3 | 14 | 1 | +1.0 |
| W.Dissly41% | 2 | 5% | 2 | 18 | +1.2 | |
| K.Lambert-Smith28% | 2 | 5% | 1 | 1 | -1.1 | |
| H.Haskins31% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 9 | +0.8 |
Defense T.Jefferson 1 INT, D.James 1 INT, B.St-Juste 1 INT, O.Oweh 1 sack · Kicking C.Dicker 5/5 FG (long 35)
Dolphins
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Tagovailoa97% | 21/32 | 205 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0.0 |
| J.Waddle78% | 1/1 | 8 | -0.6 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Achane85% | 16 | 76% | 128 | 2 | +7.0 |
| O.II22% | 2 | 10% | 1 | -0.4 | |
| A.Ingold37% | 1 | 5% | 3 | -0.3 | |
| T.Tagovailoa97% | 1 | 5% | 4 | -0.2 | |
| M.Washington44% | 1 | 5% | 1 | -0.4 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Waddle78% | 8 | 27% | 6 | 95 | +1.7 | |
| D.Achane85% | 6 | 20% | 4 | 22 | -3.8 | |
| M.Washington44% | 5 | 17% | 4 | 22 | +1.8 | |
| D.Waller66% | 3 | 10% | 2 | 12 | 1 | +2.6 |
| J.Hill61% | 3 | 10% | 3 | 31 | +1.3 | |
| A.Ingold37% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 22 | +1.5 | |
| N.Westbrook-Ikhine63% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | |
| D.Eskridge20% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.3 | |
| T.Conner5% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 8 | +0.6 | |
| O.II22% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 1 | -0.5 |
Defense K.Grant 1 sack · Kicking R.Patterson 2/3 FG (long 47)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Ground game edge
Dolphins average 4.8 yards per carry (3rd). Chargers allow 4.1 (14th).
Deep left is open
Chargers are worst against deep left throws, allowing +0.49 EPA per attempt. Dolphins send 8% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Tight ends go quiet
Chargers give up 5.7 targets a game to tight ends (2nd), against a league average of 7.3. Dolphins' tight ends produce 6.0 (25th).
Yards per play
Call this one even. Dolphins gain 5.5 yards per play (14th). Chargers give up 5.2 (12th), with the league at 5.4.
The Dolphins lead the series 12–6 since 1999. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 6 | LAC 29 at MIA 27 |
| 2023 · Wk 1 | MIA 36 at LAC 34 |
| 2022 · Wk 14 | MIA 17 at LAC 23 |
| 2020 · Wk 10 | LAC 21 at MIA 29 |
| 2019 · Wk 4 | LAC 30 at MIA 10 |
2025 records
| Chargers | Dolphins | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11–6 | 7–10 |
| Division | 5–1 | 3–3 |
| Conference | 8–4 | 3–9 |
| Other conference | 3–2 | 4–1 |
| Home | 6–3 | 5–4 |
| Away | 5–3 | 2–6 |
| Last 5 | WWWLL | WLLWL |
| Streak | Lost 2 | Lost 1 |
| Points a game | 21.6 – 20.0 | 20.4 – 24.9 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Chargers' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | MIA off | Favors MIA · Favors LAC | LAC def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.02#21 | -0.08#7 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 42%#26 | 41%#6 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.5#14 | 5.2#12 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 10%#9 | 9%#17 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.01#18 | -0.09#10 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 7%#19 | 9%#5 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.03#9 | -0.12#3 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.8#3 | 4.1#14 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 35%#26 | 35%#3 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 56%#23 | 44%#1 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 110#26 | 127#8 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 50#19 | 43#6 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 6.0#25 | 5.7#2 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 36#9 | 29#15 | 32 | |
Dolphins: EPA per throw
Chargers: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.