2025
Week 16 · Sunday 4:05 PM ET · State Farm Stadium
vs
Falcons offensevsCardinals defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Falcons, 17 for Cardinals. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Falcons won 26–19; their low point was 31% at Q2 13:27. The game turned for good at Q2 2:00: K.Cousins up the middle to ARI 26 for 2 yards (P.Mustipher; C.Simon). ** Injury Update: ARI-D.Taylor-Demerson has returned to the game (46% → 54%). The biggest single swing came at Q3 5:23, 14 points for the Cardinals.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q3 5:23ARIJ.Brissett pass short left to E.Higgins to ATL 25 for 25 yards (X.Watts).32% → 46%
- 2Q4 1:30ATLJ.Brissett pass short right intended for M.Wilson INTERCEPTED by C.Henderson at ATL 37. C.Henderson ran ob at ATL 37 for no gain. The Replay…85% → 99%
- 3Q2 0:29ATLK.Cousins pass short right to K.Pitts for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.52% → 66%
- 4Q1 7:50ARIJ.Brissett pass incomplete deep right to M.Wilson (C.Bryant). Arizona challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. J.Brissett…54% → 67%
- 5Q3 3:46ATLC.Ryland 44 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right63% → 75%
- ★Q2 2:00ATLK.Cousins up the middle to ARI 26 for 2 yards (P.Mustipher; C.Simon). ** Injury Update: ARI-D.Taylor-Demerson has returned to the game.turning point46% → 54%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
K.Pitts led the Falcons at +8.9 EPA (7 catches for 57). E.Higgins led the Cardinals at +6.6 EPA (7 catches for 91).
Falcons
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.Cousins100% | 21/35 | 197 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +8.1 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Allgeier40% | 16 | 43% | 79 | -0.1 | |
| B.Robinson70% | 16 | 43% | 76 | -3.0 | |
| K.Cousins100% | 5 | 14% | -3 | 1 | -1.2 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Robinson70% | 11 | 32% | 7 | 92 | 1 | +3.7 |
| K.Pitts87% | 9 | 26% | 7 | 57 | 1 | +8.9 |
| D.London69% | 8 | 24% | 3 | 27 | -1.7 | |
| D.Mooney70% | 2 | 6% | 2 | 24 | +1.7 | |
| J.Matthews | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.2 | |
| D.Sills42% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.6 | |
| C.Woerner74% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 3 | -0.3 | |
| T.Allgeier40% | 1 | 3% | 1 | -6 | -1.3 |
Defense C.Henderson 1 INT, A.Ebiketie 1 sack, B.Dorlus 0.5 sacks, J.Jr. 0.5 sacks · Kicking Z.Gonzalez 2/2 FG (long 49)
Cardinals
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Brissett100% | 16/31 | 203 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2.4 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M.Carter53% | 11 | 48% | 65 | +0.1 | |
| C.Kiner16% | 6 | 26% | 32 | +1.5 | |
| E.Demercado32% | 5 | 22% | 30 | 0.0 | |
| J.Brissett100% | 1 | 4% | 5 | +0.6 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.McBride96% | 8 | 28% | 4 | 27 | -2.5 | |
| E.Higgins63% | 8 | 28% | 7 | 91 | +6.6 | |
| M.Wilson86% | 3 | 10% | 2 | 52 | 1 | +1.5 |
| M.Jr.51% | 3 | 10% | 1 | 14 | +0.2 | |
| M.Carter53% | 2 | 7% | 0 | 0 | -2.6 | |
| X.Weaver44% | 2 | 7% | 2 | 19 | +2.1 | |
| S.Sims12% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.6 | |
| J.Deguara14% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.5 | |
| E.Demercado32% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -1.1 |
Defense D.Burke 1 INT, B.Ojulari 1 sack · Kicking C.Ryland 4/6 FG (long 51)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Clean pockets
Falcons take a sack on 5% of dropbacks (5th). Cardinals get home on 5% (28th). League average is 7%.
Deep middle is open
Cardinals are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +0.78 EPA per attempt. Falcons send 3% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Wideouts get blanketed
Cardinals give up 137 yards a game to wide receivers (16th), against a league average of 140. Falcons' wide receivers produce 107 (28th).
EPA per play
Call this one even. Falcons average -0.02 EPA per play (23rd). Cardinals allow +0.09 (27th). League average is +0.01.
The Falcons lead the series 11–5 since 1999. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 16 | ATL 26 at ARI 19 |
| 2023 · Wk 10 | ATL 23 at ARI 25 |
| 2022 · Wk 17 | ARI 19 at ATL 20 |
| 2019 · Wk 6 | ATL 33 at ARI 34 |
| 2018 · Wk 15 | ARI 14 at ATL 40 |
2025 records
| Falcons | Cardinals | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8–9 | 3–14 |
| Division | 3–3 | 0–6 |
| Conference | 7–5 | 3–9 |
| Other conference | 1–4 | 0–5 |
| Home | 4–4 | 1–7 |
| Away | 4–5 | 2–7 |
| Last 5 | LWWWW | LLLLL |
| Streak | Won 4 | Lost 9 |
| Points a game | 20.8 – 23.6 | 20.9 – 28.7 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Falcons' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | ATL off | Favors ATL · Favors ARI | ARI def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.02#23 | +0.09#27 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 44%#16 | 49%#31 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.5#13 | 5.8#25 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 10%#14 | 11%#24 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.01#20 | +0.15#27 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 5%#5 | 5%#28 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.06#20 | -0.02#25 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.6#7 | 4.7#26 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 34%#30 | 46%#29 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 61%#10 | 66%#28 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 107#28 | 137#16 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 57#11 | 69#30 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 7.5#14 | 8.4#30 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 54#2 | 36#24 | 32 | |
Falcons: EPA per throw
Cardinals: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.