2025
Week 16 · Sunday 4:25 PM ET · Ford Field
vs
Steelers offensevsLions defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 18 games for Steelers, 17 for Lions. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Steelers won 29–24 from as low as 14% (Q2 1:44, down 10–3). The Lions had been 74% favorites at kickoff. The game turned for good at Q4 0:22: J.Goff pass short middle to J.Gibbs to PIT 9 for 7 yards (C.Clark) (49% → 55%). The biggest single swing came at Q4 0:08, 32 points for the Steelers.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 0:08PITJ.Goff pass short left to A.St. Brown to PIT 8 for 1 yard. Lateral to J.Goff for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on DET-A.St.…68% → 100%
- 2Q4 2:09DETC.Boswell 37 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright13% → 36%
- 3Q4 1:14DETJ.Goff pass short right to A.St. Brown to PIT 12 for 24 yards (P.Wilson).50% → 67%
- 4Q4 1:30DETJ.Goff pass incomplete short middle to J.Williams. PENALTY on PIT-K.Dugger, Defensive Pass Interference, 14 yards, enforced at DET 35 - No Play.25% → 42%
- 5Q4 8:45DETJ.Goff pass short right to K.Raymond for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN.11% → 28%
- ★Q4 0:22PITJ.Goff pass short middle to J.Gibbs to PIT 9 for 7 yards (C.Clark).turning point49% → 55%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
A.Rodgers led the Steelers at +9.9 EPA (27 of 41 for 266). J.Goff led the Lions at +10.9 EPA (34 of 54 for 364).
Steelers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.Rodgers100% | 27/41 | 266 | 1 | 2 | +11.0 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Warren49% | 14 | 52% | 143 | 2 | +6.4 |
| K.Gainwell54% | 9 | 33% | 50 | +1.5 | |
| A.Rodgers100% | 2 | 7% | 9 | -1.1 | |
| J.Smith38% | 2 | 7% | 28 | +2.0 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Metcalf88% | 9 | 24% | 4 | 42 | +0.2 | |
| K.Gainwell54% | 7 | 18% | 5 | 78 | 1 | +5.4 |
| A.Thielen43% | 4 | 11% | 4 | 49 | +5.2 | |
| P.Freiermuth43% | 4 | 11% | 4 | 20 | -0.2 | |
| D.Washington68% | 4 | 11% | 3 | 36 | -2.1 | |
| M.Valdes-Scantling42% | 3 | 8% | 1 | 6 | -0.2 | |
| S.Miller20% | 3 | 8% | 3 | 19 | +4.5 | |
| J.Warren49% | 2 | 5% | 2 | 8 | -1.3 | |
| J.Smith38% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.3 | |
| C.III16% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 8 | +1.9 |
Defense C.Heyward 1 sack, K.Dugger 1 sack, K.Benton 1 sack · Kicking C.Boswell 2/3 FG (long 59)
Lions
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Goff100% | 34/54 | 364 | 3 | 3 | +10.9 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Gibbs86% | 7 | 58% | 2 | -3.1 | |
| D.Montgomery18% | 4 | 33% | 14 | -0.8 | |
| J.Goff100% | 1 | 8% | -1 | 0.0 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Gibbs86% | 13 | 25% | 10 | 66 | 1 | +1.7 |
| A.Brown97% | 9 | 17% | 4 | 54 | -0.9 | |
| J.Williams95% | 9 | 17% | 5 | 70 | +1.9 | |
| I.TeSlaa55% | 7 | 13% | 4 | 52 | 1 | +3.9 |
| K.Raymond26% | 5 | 10% | 4 | 62 | 1 | +8.6 |
| S.Zylstra66% | 5 | 10% | 3 | 20 | -1.8 | |
| A.Firkser35% | 4 | 8% | 4 | 40 | +3.0 |
Defense A.Hutchinson 2 sacks · Kicking J.Bates 1/1 FG (long 36)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Tight ends feast
Lions give up 7.7 targets a game to tight ends (22nd), against a league average of 7.3. Steelers' tight ends produce 8.9 (4th).
Deep middle is open
Lions are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +1.29 EPA per attempt. Steelers send 3% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Third downs favor Lions
Steelers convert 40% of third downs (17th). Lions allow 37% (9th).
Explosive play rate
Call this one even. Steelers create explosive plays on 9% of snaps (23rd). Lions give them up at 11% (23rd).
The Steelers lead the series 6–0–1 since 1999 (they first met in 2001). This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 16 | PIT 29 at DET 24 |
| 2021 · Wk 10 · OT | DET 16 at PIT 16 |
| 2017 · Wk 8 | PIT 20 at DET 15 |
| 2013 · Wk 11 | DET 27 at PIT 37 |
| 2009 · Wk 5 | PIT 28 at DET 20 |
2025 records
| Steelers | Lions | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10–7 | 9–8 |
| Division | 4–2 | 2–4 |
| Conference | 8–4 | 6–6 |
| Other conference | 2–3 | 3–2 |
| Home | 6–3 | 5–3 |
| Away | 4–4 | 4–5 |
| Last 5 | WWWLW | WLLLW |
| Streak | Won 1 | Won 1 |
| Points a game | 23.4 – 22.8 | 28.3 – 24.3 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Steelers' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | PIT off | Favors PIT · Favors DET | DET def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | 0.00#18 | -0.01#14 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 43%#19 | 42%#9 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.2#21 | 5.5#18 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 9%#23 | 11%#23 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.01#21 | -0.01#14 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 6%#12 | 8%#8 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | 0.00#7 | -0.04#18 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.4#12 | 4.4#24 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 40%#17 | 37%#9 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 59%#15 | 58%#15 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 101#29 | 156#24 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 62#7 | 55#19 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 8.9#4 | 7.7#22 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 48#3 | 25#5 | 32 | |
Steelers: EPA per throw
Lions: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.