2025
Week 16 · Sunday 8:20 PM ET · M&T Bank Stadium
vs
Patriots offensevsRavens defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 21 games for Patriots, 17 for Ravens. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Patriots won 28–24 from as low as 9% (Q4 9:42, down 24–13). The Ravens had been 61% favorites at kickoff. The game turned for good at Q4 2:15: T.R.Stevenson right tackle for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN (49% → 70%). The biggest single swing came at Q4 3:02, 22 points for the Patriots.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 3:02NED.Maye pass short left to S.Diggs pushed ob at BAL 27 for 21 yards (M.Starks).23% → 45%
- 2Q4 2:15NET.R.Stevenson right tackle for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN.turning point49% → 70%
- 3Q4 1:57NET.Huntley pass short middle to Z.Flowers to BAL 32 for 5 yards (K.Chaisson). FUMBLES (K.Chaisson), RECOVERED by NE-M.Jones at BAL 36.74% → 92%
- 4Q2 0:23BALD.Maye sacked at BAL 37 for -7 yards (A.Washington). FUMBLES (A.Washington) [A.Washington], RECOVERED by BAL-D.Jones at BAL 32. D.Jones to BAL 32…49% → 60%
- 5Q4 9:07NED.Maye pass deep right to K.Williams for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN.9% → 20%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
S.Diggs led the Patriots at +12.6 EPA (9 catches for 138). Z.Flowers led the Ravens at +6.9 EPA (7 catches for 84).
Patriots
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Maye100% | 31/44 | 380 | 2 | 1 | 3 | +15.8 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Maye100% | 10 | 43% | 25 | -4.3 | |
| R.Stevenson84% | 8 | 35% | 51 | 1 | +2.9 |
| T.Henderson19% | 5 | 22% | 3 | -2.3 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S.Diggs59% | 10 | 24% | 9 | 138 | +12.6 | |
| M.Hollins66% | 9 | 21% | 7 | 69 | +4.1 | |
| H.Henry81% | 7 | 17% | 6 | 35 | 1 | +2.5 |
| A.Hooper31% | 4 | 10% | 2 | 34 | +1.5 | |
| R.Stevenson84% | 3 | 7% | 2 | 27 | +1.4 | |
| K.Boutte58% | 3 | 7% | 1 | 16 | -2.6 | |
| K.Williams38% | 3 | 7% | 2 | 46 | 1 | +2.7 |
| D.Douglas18% | 2 | 5% | 1 | 6 | 0.0 | |
| T.Henderson19% | 1 | 2% | 1 | 9 | +0.8 |
Defense A.Jennings 1 sack · Kicking A.Borregales 2/2 FG (long 45)
Ravens
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L.Jackson47% | 7/10 | 101 | +6.3 | |||
| T.Huntley53% | 9/10 | 65 | 1 | +1.1 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Henry44% | 18 | 55% | 128 | 2 | +2.1 |
| K.Mitchell35% | 9 | 27% | 13 | -2.5 | |
| L.Jackson47% | 2 | 6% | 7 | -0.5 | |
| T.Huntley53% | 2 | 6% | 2 | -0.6 | |
| M.Andrews44% | 1 | 3% | 3 | +0.7 | |
| Z.Flowers89% | 1 | 3% | 18 | 1 | +2.4 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Z.Flowers89% | 7 | 35% | 7 | 84 | +4.6 | |
| D.Hopkins36% | 5 | 25% | 4 | 41 | +3.3 | |
| M.Andrews44% | 3 | 15% | 2 | 21 | -0.9 | |
| R.Bateman69% | 2 | 10% | 0 | 0 | -1.8 | |
| R.Ali22% | 2 | 10% | 2 | 2 | -1.0 | |
| C.Kolar49% | 1 | 5% | 1 | 18 | +1.4 |
Defense M.Humphrey 1 INT, D.Jones 1 sack, A.Washington 1 sack, T.Simpson 1 sack · Kicking T.Loop 1/2 FG (long 36)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Wideouts feast
Ravens give up 168 yards a game to wide receivers (30th), against a league average of 140. Patriots' wide receivers produce 160 (7th).
Deep middle is open
Ravens are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +0.82 EPA per attempt. Patriots send 5% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Nowhere to run
Patriots' run game is 27th in EPA per carry (-0.10). Ravens allow -0.09 (11th).
Success rate
Call this one even. Patriots succeed on 46% of plays (7th) against a defense that allows 44% (17th).
The Patriots lead the series 11–5 since 1999. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 16 | NE 28 at BAL 24 |
| 2022 · Wk 3 | BAL 37 at NE 26 |
| 2020 · Wk 10 | BAL 17 at NE 23 |
| 2019 · Wk 9 | NE 20 at BAL 37 |
| 2016 · Wk 14 | BAL 23 at NE 30 |
2025 records
| Patriots | Ravens | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14–3 | 8–9 |
| Division | 5–1 | 3–3 |
| Conference | 9–3 | 5–7 |
| Other conference | 5–0 | 3–2 |
| Home | 6–3 | 3–6 |
| Away | 8–0 | 5–3 |
| Last 5 | WLWWW | LWLWL |
| Streak | Won 3 | Lost 1 |
| Points a game | 28.8 – 18.8 | 24.9 – 23.4 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Patriots' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | NE off | Favors NE · Favors BAL | BAL def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.09#5 | +0.03#20 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 46%#7 | 44%#17 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 6.1#3 | 5.6#22 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 12%#4 | 10%#21 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.17#5 | +0.08#21 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 10%#29 | 5%#31 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.10#27 | -0.09#11 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.3#16 | 4.1#16 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 41%#13 | 39%#11 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 61%#11 | 53%#5 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 160#7 | 168#30 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 56#14 | 47#9 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 6.4#19 | 6.6#8 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 36#10 | 43#30 | 32 | |
Patriots: EPA per throw
Ravens: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.