2025
Week 16 · Sunday 8:20 PM ET · M&T Bank Stadium
vs
Ravens offensevsPatriots defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Ravens, 21 for Patriots. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Patriots won 28–24 from as low as 9% (Q4 9:42, down 24–13). The Ravens had been 61% favorites at kickoff. The game turned for good at Q4 2:15: T.R.Stevenson right tackle for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN (49% → 70%). The biggest single swing came at Q4 3:02, 22 points for the Patriots.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 3:02NED.Maye pass short left to S.Diggs pushed ob at BAL 27 for 21 yards (M.Starks).23% → 45%
- 2Q4 2:15NET.R.Stevenson right tackle for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN.turning point49% → 70%
- 3Q4 1:57BALT.Huntley pass short middle to Z.Flowers to BAL 32 for 5 yards (K.Chaisson). FUMBLES (K.Chaisson), RECOVERED by NE-M.Jones at BAL 36.74% → 92%
- 4Q2 0:23NED.Maye sacked at BAL 37 for -7 yards (A.Washington). FUMBLES (A.Washington) [A.Washington], RECOVERED by BAL-D.Jones at BAL 32. D.Jones to BAL 32…49% → 60%
- 5Q4 9:07NED.Maye pass deep right to K.Williams for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN.9% → 20%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. Each play is tagged with the team that had the ball; the bar names the team it helped. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
S.Diggs led the Patriots at +12.6 EPA (9 catches for 138). Z.Flowers led the Ravens at +6.9 EPA (7 catches for 84).
Patriots
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Maye100% | 31/44 | 380 | 2 | 1 | 3 | +15.8 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Maye100% | 10 | 43% | 25 | -4.3 | |
| R.Stevenson84% | 8 | 35% | 51 | 1 | +2.9 |
| T.Henderson19% | 5 | 22% | 3 | -2.3 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S.Diggs59% | 10 | 24% | 9 | 138 | +12.6 | |
| M.Hollins66% | 9 | 21% | 7 | 69 | +4.1 | |
| H.Henry81% | 7 | 17% | 6 | 35 | 1 | +2.5 |
| A.Hooper31% | 4 | 10% | 2 | 34 | +1.5 | |
| R.Stevenson84% | 3 | 7% | 2 | 27 | +1.4 | |
| K.Boutte58% | 3 | 7% | 1 | 16 | -2.6 | |
| K.Williams38% | 3 | 7% | 2 | 46 | 1 | +2.7 |
| D.Douglas18% | 2 | 5% | 1 | 6 | 0.0 | |
| T.Henderson19% | 1 | 2% | 1 | 9 | +0.8 |
Defense A.Jennings 1 sack · Kicking A.Borregales 2/2 FG (long 45)
Ravens
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L.Jackson47% | 7/10 | 101 | +6.3 | |||
| T.Huntley53% | 9/10 | 65 | 1 | +1.1 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Henry44% | 18 | 55% | 128 | 2 | +2.1 |
| K.Mitchell35% | 9 | 27% | 13 | -2.5 | |
| L.Jackson47% | 2 | 6% | 7 | -0.5 | |
| T.Huntley53% | 2 | 6% | 2 | -0.6 | |
| M.Andrews44% | 1 | 3% | 3 | +0.7 | |
| Z.Flowers89% | 1 | 3% | 18 | 1 | +2.4 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Z.Flowers89% | 7 | 35% | 7 | 84 | +4.6 | |
| D.Hopkins36% | 5 | 25% | 4 | 41 | +3.3 | |
| M.Andrews44% | 3 | 15% | 2 | 21 | -0.9 | |
| R.Bateman69% | 2 | 10% | 0 | 0 | -1.8 | |
| R.Ali22% | 2 | 10% | 2 | 2 | -1.0 | |
| C.Kolar49% | 1 | 5% | 1 | 18 | +1.4 |
Defense M.Humphrey 1 INT, D.Jones 1 sack, A.Washington 1 sack, T.Simpson 1 sack · Kicking T.Loop 1/2 FG (long 36)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Run it at them
Ravens' run game is 3rd in EPA per carry (+0.05). Patriots allow -0.09 (12th).
Deep middle is open
Patriots are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +0.32 EPA per attempt. Ravens send 3% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Wideouts get blanketed
Patriots give up 117 yards a game to wide receivers (4th), against a league average of 140. Ravens' wide receivers produce 114 (25th).
Yards per play
Call this one even. Ravens gain 5.9 yards per play (6th). Patriots give up 4.9 (6th), with the league at 5.4.
The Patriots lead the series 11–5 since 1999. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 16 | NE 28 at BAL 24 |
| 2022 · Wk 3 | BAL 37 at NE 26 |
| 2020 · Wk 10 | BAL 17 at NE 23 |
| 2019 · Wk 9 | NE 20 at BAL 37 |
| 2016 · Wk 14 | BAL 23 at NE 30 |
2025 records
| Patriots | Ravens | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14–3 | 8–9 |
| Division | 5–1 | 3–3 |
| Conference | 9–3 | 5–7 |
| Other conference | 5–0 | 3–2 |
| Home | 6–3 | 3–6 |
| Away | 8–0 | 5–3 |
| Last 5 | WLWWW | LWLWL |
| Streak | Won 3 | Lost 1 |
| Points a game | 28.8 – 18.8 | 24.9 – 23.4 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Patriots' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | BAL off | Favors BAL · Favors NE | NE def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.03#11 | -0.09#5 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 45%#14 | 42%#11 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.9#6 | 4.9#6 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 12%#2 | 8%#6 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.04#24 | -0.12#6 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 10%#27 | 7%#16 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | +0.05#3 | -0.09#12 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 5.2#1 | 3.9#8 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 41%#15 | 36%#7 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 49%#27 | 55%#8 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 114#25 | 117#4 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 51#17 | 55#20 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 7.2#17 | 7.5#20 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 27#22 | 29#11 | 32 | |
Ravens: EPA per throw
Patriots: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.