2025
Week 16 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · MetLife Stadium
vs
Vikings offensevsGiants defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Vikings, 17 for Giants. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Vikings won 16–13; their low point was 50% at Q4 9:44. The game turned for good at Q4 9:44: M.Brosmer pass deep left to J.Jefferson ran ob at MIN 45 for 21 yards (50% → 62%). The biggest single swing came at Q2 0:25, 18 points for the Giants.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q2 0:25NYGJ.McCarthy sacked at MIN 33 for -8 yards (B.Burns). FUMBLES (B.Burns) [B.Burns], RECOVERED by NYG-T.Nubin at MIN 27. T.Nubin for 27 yards,…14% → 32%
- 2Q4 2:05MINJ.Dart sacked at NYG 39 for -8 yards (A.Van Ginkel).79% → 93%
- 3Q4 15:00NYGJ.Dart sacked at NYG 40 for -12 yards (E.Wilson). PENALTY on MIN-E.Wilson, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at MIN 48 - No Play.33% → 45%
- 4Q4 9:44MINM.Brosmer pass deep left to J.Jefferson ran ob at MIN 45 for 21 yards.turning point50% → 62%
- 5Q3 1:59NYGJ.Dart pass short middle to D.Slayton to MIN 46 for 8 yards (B.Cashman).28% → 39%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
J.Jefferson led the Vikings at +8.3 EPA (6 catches for 85). D.Slayton led the Giants at +2.4 EPA (1 catches for 8).
Vikings
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.McCarthy52% | 9/14 | 108 | 1 | 3 | -8.3 | |
| M.Brosmer48% | 7/9 | 52 | 1 | -0.5 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.Jones64% | 21 | 68% | 85 | +2.8 | |
| M.Brosmer48% | 3 | 10% | -3 | -1.9 | |
| J.Mason7% | 2 | 6% | 5 | -0.4 | |
| Z.Scott13% | 2 | 6% | 4 | -0.2 | |
| J.McCarthy52% | 2 | 6% | 20 | 1 | +3.8 |
| C.Ham33% | 1 | 3% | 3 | -0.2 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Jefferson95% | 8 | 35% | 6 | 85 | +8.3 | |
| A.Jones64% | 3 | 13% | 2 | 8 | -1.5 | |
| J.Oliver52% | 3 | 13% | 2 | 19 | +0.8 | |
| J.Addison67% | 3 | 13% | 2 | 26 | +0.1 | |
| J.Nailor62% | 2 | 9% | 0 | 0 | -6.3 | |
| T.Hockenson75% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 2 | -0.4 | |
| J.Mason7% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 6 | +0.0 | |
| Z.Scott13% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 8 | +0.9 | |
| T.Felton11% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 6 | +1.3 |
Defense B.Murphy 1 INT, E.Wilson 1 sack, J.Allen 1 sack, A.Ginkel 1 sack · Kicking W.Reichard 3/3 FG (long 43)
Giants
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Dart100% | 7/13 | 33 | 1 | 5 | -17.1 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Jr.62% | 16 | 53% | 71 | -2.3 | |
| D.Singletary38% | 11 | 37% | 47 | +0.8 | |
| J.Dart100% | 2 | 7% | 7 | +0.5 | |
| W.Robinson98% | 1 | 3% | 3 | -0.2 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W.Robinson98% | 6 | 46% | 3 | 19 | -3.2 | |
| D.Slayton79% | 2 | 15% | 1 | 8 | +2.4 | |
| T.Jr.62% | 2 | 15% | 2 | 7 | -1.3 | |
| T.Johnson96% | 2 | 15% | 0 | 0 | -4.4 | |
| D.Singletary38% | 1 | 8% | 1 | -1 | -1.2 |
Defense B.Burns 2 sacks, P.Adebo 1 INT, C.Golston 1 sack, A.Carter 1 sack · Kicking B.Sauls 2/2 FG (long 39)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Ground game edge
Vikings average 4.4 yards per carry (11th). Giants allow 5.4 (32nd).
Deep left is open
Giants are worst against deep left throws, allowing +0.69 EPA per attempt. Vikings send 9% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Tight ends go quiet
Giants give up 6.7 targets a game to tight ends (9th), against a league average of 7.3. Vikings' tight ends produce 5.5 (29th).
EPA per play
Call this one even. Vikings average -0.12 EPA per play (28th). Giants allow +0.08 (25th). League average is +0.01.
The Vikings lead the series 12–7 since 1999. They have won the last 2. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 16 | MIN 16 at NYG 13 |
| 2024 · Wk 1 | MIN 28 at NYG 6 |
| 2022 · Wk 19 · playoffs | NYG 31 at MIN 24 |
| 2022 · Wk 16 | NYG 24 at MIN 27 |
| 2019 · Wk 5 | MIN 28 at NYG 10 |
2025 records
| Vikings | Giants | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9–8 | 4–13 |
| Division | 4–2 | 2–4 |
| Conference | 7–5 | 2–10 |
| Other conference | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Home | 4–4 | 3–5 |
| Away | 5–4 | 1–8 |
| Last 5 | WWWWW | LLLWW |
| Streak | Won 5 | Won 2 |
| Points a game | 20.2 – 19.6 | 22.4 – 25.8 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Vikings' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | MIN off | Favors MIN · Favors NYG | NYG def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.12#28 | +0.08#25 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 43%#23 | 47%#26 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.0#28 | 6.0#29 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 10%#13 | 12%#32 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.19#30 | +0.02#16 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 11%#31 | 7%#17 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.05#18 | +0.13#32 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.4#11 | 5.4#32 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 33%#31 | 40%#14 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 60%#13 | 63%#23 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 129#22 | 152#23 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 38#29 | 47#10 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 5.5#29 | 6.7#9 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 22#28 | 31#19 | 32 | |
Vikings: EPA per throw
Giants: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.