DOWN X DOWN › week 16 › Raiders at Texans

Season over · final

2025

2025 season · final Every snap of the 2025 season, kept as it ended.Back to 2026 →

Week 16 · Sunday 4:25 PM ET · NRG Stadium

Raiders offensevsTexans defense

Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Raiders, 19 for Texans. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.

LV offense HOU offense

How it played out · win probability, snap by snapFinal · LV 21 · HOU 23

The Texans won 23–21 and were favored the whole way, never below 61%. The biggest single swing came at Q3 9:53, 15 points for the Raiders.

At kickoffHOU 92%HOU by 14.5 on the line

HOU low point61%Q3 7:44 · down 14⁠–⁠13

Swings past 50%0times the favorite changed

Biggest swing15 ptsLV · Q3 9:53

HOU wins50%LV wins

12345HOU low 61%

Q1Q2Q3Q4

The plays that swung it

1Q3 9:53LVG.Smith pass deep left to A.Jeanty for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN.11% → 26%+15
2Q1 10:53HOUG.Smith pass short right intended for A.Jeanty INTERCEPTED by D.Stingley at LV 31. D.Stingley for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN.84% → 98%+14
3Q4 4:06HOUC.Stroud pass incomplete deep left to N.Collins. PENALTY on LV-D.Porter, Defensive Pass Interference, 21 yards, enforced at HOU 7 - No Play.73% → 84%+11
4Q4 5:34LVA.Jeanty up the middle for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN.4% → 14%+10
5Q4 5:19LVC.Stroud FUMBLES (Aborted) at HOU 12, and recovers at HOU 6.15% → 22%+8

Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.

Box score · every offensive player who touched the ballWeek 16

T.Tucker led the Raiders at +5.1 EPA (4 catches for 43). D.Schultz led the Texans at +3.7 EPA (5 catches for 35).

Raiders

Passing	C/A	Yds	TD	INT	Sk	EPA
G.Smith100%	16/23	201	2	1	3	+1.7

Rushing	Car	Share	Yds	TD	EPA
A.Jeanty93%	24	89%	128	1	-4.5
T.Tucker100%	2	7%	11		+0.4
R.Mostert7%	1	4%	6		+0.2

Receiving	Tgt	Share	Rec	Yds	TD	EPA
T.Tucker100%	5	23%	4	43		+4.7
B.Bowers98%	5	23%	5	33	1	+4.2
M.Mayer67%	3	14%	1	10		-0.9
J.Bech72%	3	14%	2	43		+2.0
T.Lockett28%	2	9%	1	6		-2.0
A.Jeanty93%	2	9%	1	60	1	-1.6
R.Mostert7%	1	5%	1	3		-0.5
A.Bachman17%	1	5%	1	3		+1.1

Defense no sacks or interceptions

Texans

Passing	C/A	Yds	TD	INT	Sk	EPA
C.Stroud100%	23/35	187	1			+2.9

Rushing	Car	Share	Yds	EPA
J.Jordan46%	15	58%	53	-6.9
N.Chubb32%	6	23%	33	-1.7
C.Stroud100%	4	15%	0	-5.8
D.Ogunbowale18%	1	4%	-3	-1.6

Receiving	Tgt	Share	Rec	Yds	TD	EPA
N.Collins80%	9	26%	4	59		+1.7
D.Schultz71%	5	15%	5	35	1	+3.7
C.Kirk62%	5	15%	3	37		+0.3
J.Jordan46%	5	15%	5	17		-0.4
C.Stover51%	3	9%	2	7		+0.5
J.Higgins54%	3	9%	1	17		-0.8
X.Hutchinson49%	2	6%	1	4		-1.5
D.Ogunbowale18%	1	3%	1	2		-1.1
N.Chubb32%	1	3%	1	9		+1.0

Defense D.Jr. 1 INT, D.Hunter 1 sack, D.Barnett 1 sack, W.Jr. 1 sack · Kicking K.Fairbairn 3/3 FG (long 55)

Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.

Keys to the game · from the season numbers, not this game alone4 reads

Biggest edge

Tight ends feast

Texans give up 7.0 targets a game to tight ends (13th), against a league average of 7.3. Raiders' tight ends produce 9.2 (3rd).

Opportunity

Deep left is open

Texans are worst against deep left throws, allowing +0.68 EPA per attempt. Raiders send 5% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.

Watch out

Ground game stalls

Raiders average 3.5 yards per carry (32nd). Texans allow 3.5 (2nd).

Wash

Explosive play rate

Call this one even. Raiders create explosive plays on 7% of snaps (31st). Texans give them up at 8% (8th).

The series · Raiders and Texans since 1999, and this season's records14 meetings

The Texans lead the series 9–5 since 1999 (they first met in 2004). This game is the latest meeting.

Raiders at home2–4the Raiders' record

In Houston2–5the Raiders' record

Most pointsRaiders 38 · Texans 312022 · 2010

Biggest winRaiders by 18 · Texans by 232022 · 2009

Playoffs0–1the Raiders' record

The last 5

2025 · Wk 16	LV 21 at HOU 23
2022 · Wk 7	HOU 20 at LV 38
2019 · Wk 8	LV 24 at HOU 27
2016 · Wk 18 · playoffs	LV 14 at HOU 27
2016 · Wk 11	HOU 20 at LV 27

2025 records

	Raiders	Texans
Overall	3–14	12–5
Division	1–5	5–1
Conference	3–9	10–2
Other conference	0–5	2–3
Home	2–7	7–2
Away	1–7	5–3
Last 5	LLLLW	WWWWW
Streak	Won 1	Won 9
Points a game	14.2 – 25.4	23.8 – 17.4

Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Raiders' side. Records are this regular season.

Head to head · LV offense against HOU defense

Stat	LV off	HOU def allows	NFL avg
Overall
EPA per play	-0.22#32	-0.16#1	+0.01
Success rate	38%#30	37%#2	44%
Yards per play	4.4#31	4.7#2	5.4
Explosive play rate	7%#31	8%#8	10%
Passing
Pass EPA per dropback	-0.19#29	-0.22#1	+0.01
Sack rate	11%#32	9%#6	7%
Running
Run EPA per carry	-0.30#32	-0.16#2	-0.05
Yards per carry	3.5#32	3.5#2	4.3
Money downs
3rd down conversion	35%#28	36%#6	40%
Red zone TD rate	49%#28	60%#21	59%
Targets by position
WR yards per game	100#30	128#10	140
TE yards per game	68#5	43#5	53
TE targets per game	9.2#3	7.0#13	7.3
RB receiving yards per game	27#21	31#18	32

Where the ball goes · EPA per throwDeep is 15+ air yds

Raiders: EPA per throw

Left

Middle

Right

Deep

0.005% of throws

+0.552% of throws

+0.107% of throws

Short

+0.0532% of throws

+0.1617% of throws

-0.1536% of throws

Texans: EPA allowed per throw

Left

Middle

Right

Deep

+0.6865 throws

-0.0720 throws

-0.2043 throws