2025
Week 16 · Sunday 4:25 PM ET · NRG Stadium
vs
Texans offensevsRaiders defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 19 games for Texans, 17 for Raiders. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Texans won 23–21 and were favored the whole way, never below 61%. The biggest single swing came at Q3 9:53, 15 points for the Raiders.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q3 9:53LVG.Smith pass deep left to A.Jeanty for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN.11% → 26%
- 2Q1 10:53HOUG.Smith pass short right intended for A.Jeanty INTERCEPTED by D.Stingley at LV 31. D.Stingley for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN.84% → 98%
- 3Q4 4:06HOUC.Stroud pass incomplete deep left to N.Collins. PENALTY on LV-D.Porter, Defensive Pass Interference, 21 yards, enforced at HOU 7 - No Play.73% → 84%
- 4Q4 5:34LVA.Jeanty up the middle for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN.4% → 14%
- 5Q4 5:19LVC.Stroud FUMBLES (Aborted) at HOU 12, and recovers at HOU 6.15% → 22%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
T.Tucker led the Raiders at +5.1 EPA (4 catches for 43). D.Schultz led the Texans at +3.7 EPA (5 catches for 35).
Raiders
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G.Smith100% | 16/23 | 201 | 2 | 1 | 3 | +1.7 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.Jeanty93% | 24 | 89% | 128 | 1 | -4.5 |
| T.Tucker100% | 2 | 7% | 11 | +0.4 | |
| R.Mostert7% | 1 | 4% | 6 | +0.2 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Tucker100% | 5 | 23% | 4 | 43 | +4.7 | |
| B.Bowers98% | 5 | 23% | 5 | 33 | 1 | +4.2 |
| M.Mayer67% | 3 | 14% | 1 | 10 | -0.9 | |
| J.Bech72% | 3 | 14% | 2 | 43 | +2.0 | |
| T.Lockett28% | 2 | 9% | 1 | 6 | -2.0 | |
| A.Jeanty93% | 2 | 9% | 1 | 60 | 1 | -1.6 |
| R.Mostert7% | 1 | 5% | 1 | 3 | -0.5 | |
| A.Bachman17% | 1 | 5% | 1 | 3 | +1.1 |
Defense no sacks or interceptions
Texans
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Stroud100% | 23/35 | 187 | 1 | +2.9 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Jordan46% | 15 | 58% | 53 | -6.9 | |
| N.Chubb32% | 6 | 23% | 33 | -1.7 | |
| C.Stroud100% | 4 | 15% | 0 | -5.8 | |
| D.Ogunbowale18% | 1 | 4% | -3 | -1.6 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N.Collins80% | 9 | 26% | 4 | 59 | +1.7 | |
| D.Schultz71% | 5 | 15% | 5 | 35 | 1 | +3.7 |
| C.Kirk62% | 5 | 15% | 3 | 37 | +0.3 | |
| J.Jordan46% | 5 | 15% | 5 | 17 | -0.4 | |
| C.Stover51% | 3 | 9% | 2 | 7 | +0.5 | |
| J.Higgins54% | 3 | 9% | 1 | 17 | -0.8 | |
| X.Hutchinson49% | 2 | 6% | 1 | 4 | -1.5 | |
| D.Ogunbowale18% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 2 | -1.1 | |
| N.Chubb32% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 9 | +1.0 |
Defense D.Jr. 1 INT, D.Hunter 1 sack, D.Barnett 1 sack, W.Jr. 1 sack · Kicking K.Fairbairn 3/3 FG (long 55)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Third downs favor Texans
Texans convert 40% of third downs (18th). Raiders allow 47% (31st).
Deep middle is open
Raiders are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +0.56 EPA per attempt. Texans send 3% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Checkdowns go nowhere
Raiders give up 28 yards a game to running backs (10th), against a league average of 32. Texans' running backs produce 21 (29th).
EPA per play
Call this one even. Texans average -0.03 EPA per play (24th). Raiders allow +0.03 (19th). League average is +0.01.
The Texans lead the series 9–5 since 1999 (they first met in 2004). This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 16 | LV 21 at HOU 23 |
| 2022 · Wk 7 | HOU 20 at LV 38 |
| 2019 · Wk 8 | LV 24 at HOU 27 |
| 2016 · Wk 18 · playoffs | LV 14 at HOU 27 |
| 2016 · Wk 11 | HOU 20 at LV 27 |
2025 records
| Raiders | Texans | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 3–14 | 12–5 |
| Division | 1–5 | 5–1 |
| Conference | 3–9 | 10–2 |
| Other conference | 0–5 | 2–3 |
| Home | 2–7 | 7–2 |
| Away | 1–7 | 5–3 |
| Last 5 | LLLLW | WWWWW |
| Streak | Won 1 | Won 9 |
| Points a game | 14.2 – 25.4 | 23.8 – 17.4 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Raiders' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | HOU off | Favors HOU · Favors LV | LV def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.03#24 | +0.03#19 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 41%#28 | 45%#21 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.1#25 | 5.2#11 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 8%#25 | 8%#7 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.00#16 | +0.08#22 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 5%#9 | 7%#18 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.11#30 | -0.07#14 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 3.8#28 | 4.0#10 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 40%#18 | 47%#31 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 46%#30 | 59%#18 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 160#8 | 147#21 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 51#16 | 39#3 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 7.7#11 | 5.7#3 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 21#29 | 28#10 | 32 | |
Texans: EPA per throw
Raiders: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.