2025
Week 7 · Sunday 4:25 PM ET · State Farm Stadium
vs
Packers offensevsCardinals defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 18 games for Packers, 17 for Cardinals. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Packers won 27–23; their low point was 27% at Q4 7:18. The game turned for good at Q4 2:32: J.Love pass short left to T.Kraft pushed ob at ARI 14 for 15 yards (D.Taylor-Demerson). ** Injury Update: ARI-J.Sweat has returned to the game (42% → 64%).
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 2:32GBJ.Love pass short left to T.Kraft pushed ob at ARI 14 for 15 yards (D.Taylor-Demerson). ** Injury Update: ARI-J.Sweat has returned to the game.turning point42% → 64%
- 2Q4 5:58GBJ.Brissett up the middle to ARI 48 for no gain (I.McDuffie).32% → 53%
- 3Q4 0:32GBJ.Brissett sacked at GB 35 for -9 yards (M.Parsons).58% → 75%
- 4Q3 11:51GBJ.Brissett sacked at ARI 42 for -4 yards (R.Gary). FUMBLES (R.Gary) [R.Gary], RECOVERED by GB-E.Williams at ARI 44.36% → 51%
- 5Q2 0:12ARIJ.Brissett pass short right to T.McBride for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.51% → 66%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
J.Love led the Packers at +8.3 EPA (19 of 29 for 179). T.McBride led the Cardinals at +6.9 EPA (10 catches for 74).
Packers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Love100% | 19/29 | 179 | 1 | 1 | +6.1 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Jacobs55% | 13 | 57% | 55 | 2 | +2.3 |
| E.Wilson34% | 6 | 26% | 17 | -4.4 | |
| J.Love100% | 4 | 17% | 22 | +2.2 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Kraft89% | 10 | 36% | 5 | 58 | 1 | +3.6 |
| R.Doubs89% | 8 | 29% | 6 | 72 | +1.5 | |
| M.Golden73% | 4 | 14% | 4 | 37 | +5.3 | |
| D.Wicks27% | 2 | 7% | 1 | 5 | -1.1 | |
| J.Jacobs55% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 3 | -0.3 | |
| J.FitzPatrick29% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 6 | +1.2 | |
| C.Brooks12% | 1 | 4% | 0 | 0 | -0.8 | |
| E.Wilson34% | 1 | 4% | 1 | -2 | -0.9 |
Defense M.Parsons 3 sacks, Q.Walker 1.5 sacks, R.Gary 1 sack, K.Enagbare 0.5 sacks · Kicking L.Havrisik 2/2 FG (long 61)
Cardinals
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Brissett100% | 25/36 | 279 | 2 | 6 | +1.0 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Knight45% | 14 | 50% | 57 | +0.3 | |
| M.Carter37% | 7 | 25% | 11 | -2.8 | |
| J.Brissett100% | 6 | 21% | 26 | -1.7 | |
| D.Johnson18% | 1 | 4% | 0 | -0.4 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.McBride87% | 13 | 38% | 10 | 74 | 2 | +6.9 |
| M.Jr.86% | 6 | 18% | 2 | 58 | +2.5 | |
| B.Knight45% | 4 | 12% | 3 | 7 | -0.8 | |
| M.Wilson82% | 4 | 12% | 3 | 40 | +2.4 | |
| Z.Jones54% | 2 | 6% | 2 | 67 | +5.0 | |
| G.Dortch9% | 2 | 6% | 2 | 5 | -0.8 | |
| M.Carter37% | 2 | 6% | 2 | 25 | +1.6 | |
| E.Higgins42% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 3 | -0.5 |
Defense Z.Collins 1 sack · Kicking C.Ryland 3/3 FG (long 40)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Third downs favor Packers
Packers convert 48% of third downs (2nd). Cardinals allow 46% (29th).
Deep middle is open
Cardinals are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +0.78 EPA per attempt. Packers send 6% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Tight ends go quiet
Cardinals give up 8.4 targets a game to tight ends (30th), against a league average of 7.3. Packers' tight ends produce 5.6 (28th).
Yards per play
Call this one even. Packers gain 5.7 yards per play (9th). Cardinals give up 5.8 (25th), with the league at 5.4.
The Packers lead the series 8–5 since 1999. They have won the last 3. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 7 | GB 27 at ARI 23 |
| 2024 · Wk 6 | ARI 13 at GB 34 |
| 2021 · Wk 8 | GB 24 at ARI 21 |
| 2018 · Wk 13 | ARI 20 at GB 17 |
| 2015 · Wk 19 · OT · playoffs | GB 20 at ARI 26 |
2025 records
| Packers | Cardinals | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9–7–1 | 3–14 |
| Division | 4–2 | 0–6 |
| Conference | 7–4–1 | 3–9 |
| Other conference | 2–3 | 0–5 |
| Home | 5–3 | 1–7 |
| Away | 4–4–1 | 2–7 |
| Last 5 | WLLLL | LLLLL |
| Streak | Lost 4 | Lost 9 |
| Points a game | 23.0 – 21.2 | 20.9 – 28.7 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Packers' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | GB off | Favors GB · Favors ARI | ARI def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.12#3 | +0.09#27 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 47%#4 | 49%#31 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.7#9 | 5.8#25 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 12%#3 | 11%#24 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.24#1 | +0.15#27 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 5%#8 | 5%#28 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.07#22 | -0.02#25 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.1#21 | 4.7#26 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 48%#2 | 46%#29 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 60%#12 | 66%#28 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 150#13 | 137#16 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 48#22 | 69#30 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 5.6#28 | 8.4#30 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 27#20 | 36#24 | 32 | |
Packers: EPA per throw
Cardinals: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.