2025
Week 7 · Sunday 8:20 PM ET · Levi's Stadium
vs
Falcons offensevs49ers defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Falcons, 19 for 49ers. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The 49ers won 20–10; their low point was 38% at Q2 8:58. The game turned for good at Q2 5:24: C.McCaffrey up the middle to ATL 33 for 10 yards (D.Malone; J.Bates) (48% → 55%). The biggest single swing came at Q4 8:20, 17 points for the 49ers.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 8:20SFM.Penix pass incomplete short right to D.London (C.Lucas). ** Injury Update: ATL-T.Allgeier has returned to the game.63% → 80%
- 2Q2 9:54ATLM.Jones pass short middle intended for J.Jennings INTERCEPTED by K.Elliss at ATL 18. K.Elliss to ATL 34 for 16 yards (M.Jones).43% → 60%
- 3Q2 1:32SFM.Penix sacked at ATL 39 for -7 yards (B.Huff). FUMBLES (B.Huff) [B.Huff], RECOVERED by SF-A.Collins at ATL 40.65% → 77%
- 4Q3 3:27ATLM.Penix pass deep left to C.Washington to ATL 47 for 17 yards (D.Luter).32% → 41%
- 5Q2 2:00SFM.Jones pass short left to C.McCaffrey to ATL 1 for 13 yards (X.Watts).57% → 66%
- ★Q2 5:24SFC.McCaffrey up the middle to ATL 33 for 10 yards (D.Malone; J.Bates).turning point48% → 55%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
D.Mooney led the Falcons at +3.9 EPA (3 catches for 68). C.McCaffrey led the 49ers at +13.4 EPA (24 carries for 129).
Falcons
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M.Jr.100% | 21/38 | 241 | 1 | 2 | -6.7 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Robinson88% | 14 | 70% | 40 | -2.3 | |
| T.Allgeier23% | 4 | 20% | 16 | +1.1 | |
| M.Jr.100% | 2 | 10% | 6 | +1.1 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.Pitts82% | 10 | 28% | 7 | 62 | +2.8 | |
| D.London98% | 10 | 28% | 4 | 42 | -8.4 | |
| B.Robinson88% | 8 | 22% | 6 | 52 | 1 | +3.3 |
| D.Mooney83% | 5 | 14% | 3 | 68 | +3.9 | |
| C.Washington17% | 2 | 6% | 1 | 17 | +1.5 | |
| C.Woerner58% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.4 |
Defense K.Elliss 1 INT, Z.Harrison 1 sack · Kicking J.Romo 1/1 FG (long 38)
49ers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M.Jones100% | 17/26 | 152 | 1 | 1 | +2.0 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.McCaffrey75% | 24 | 62% | 129 | 2 | +3.7 |
| B.Robinson25% | 9 | 23% | 36 | -1.9 | |
| M.Jones100% | 5 | 13% | 11 | -1.2 | |
| K.Juszczyk58% | 1 | 3% | -2 | -2.3 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.McCaffrey75% | 8 | 33% | 7 | 72 | +9.8 | |
| J.Jennings85% | 7 | 29% | 4 | 31 | -5.6 | |
| G.Kittle81% | 2 | 8% | 0 | 0 | -0.9 | |
| K.Bourne78% | 2 | 8% | 2 | 14 | +1.9 | |
| K.Juszczyk58% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 10 | +0.8 | |
| D.Robinson34% | 1 | 4% | 0 | 0 | -1.5 | |
| L.Farrell33% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 11 | +0.5 | |
| S.Moore4% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 15 | +0.9 | |
| C.Colby | 1 | 4% | 1 | -1 | -1.2 |
Defense B.Huff 1 sack, S.Okuayinonu 1 sack · Kicking E.Pineiro 2/2 FG (long 55)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Clean pockets
Falcons take a sack on 5% of dropbacks (5th). 49ers get home on 4% (32nd). League average is 7%.
Deep middle is open
49ers are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +1.29 EPA per attempt. Falcons send 3% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Third downs favor 49ers
Falcons convert 34% of third downs (30th). 49ers allow 41% (18th).
EPA per play
Call this one even. Falcons average -0.02 EPA per play (23rd). 49ers allow +0.07 (24th). League average is +0.01.
The Falcons lead the series 10–9 since 1999. Oct 25, 2026, at Mercedes-Benz Stadium: the Falcons won 29–20. Michael Penix Jr. started at quarterback for the Falcons and Brock Purdy for the 49ers; Raheem Morris and Kyle Shanahan coached.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 7 | SF 20 at ATL 29 |
| 2025 · Wk 7 | ATL 10 at SF 20 |
| 2022 · Wk 6 | SF 14 at ATL 28 |
| 2021 · Wk 15 | ATL 13 at SF 31 |
| 2019 · Wk 15 | ATL 29 at SF 22 |
2025 records
| Falcons | 49ers | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8–9 | 12–5 |
| Division | 3–3 | 4–2 |
| Conference | 7–5 | 9–3 |
| Other conference | 1–4 | 3–2 |
| Home | 4–4 | 5–3 |
| Away | 4–5 | 7–2 |
| Last 5 | LWWWW | WWWWL |
| Streak | Won 4 | Lost 1 |
| Points a game | 20.8 – 23.6 | 25.7 – 21.8 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Falcons' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | ATL off | Favors ATL · Favors SF | SF def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.02#23 | +0.07#24 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 44%#16 | 49%#30 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.5#13 | 5.6#21 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 10%#14 | 8%#4 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.01#20 | +0.11#25 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 5%#5 | 4%#32 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.06#20 | -0.02#23 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.6#7 | 4.4#22 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 34%#30 | 41%#18 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 61%#10 | 59%#20 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 107#28 | 144#19 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 57#11 | 53#17 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 7.5#14 | 8.1#23 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 54#2 | 35#23 | 32 | |
Falcons: EPA per throw
49ers: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.