2025
Week 7 · Thursday 8:15 PM ET · Paycor Stadium
vs
Steelers offensevsBengals defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 18 games for Steelers, 17 for Bengals. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Bengals won 33–31 from as low as 9% (Q2 12:19, down 7–0). The Steelers had been 72% favorites at kickoff. The game turned for good at Q4 0:11: E.McPherson 36 yard field goal is GOOD (49% → 81%). The biggest single swing came at Q4 2:31, 39 points for the Steelers.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 2:31PITA.Rodgers pass deep left to P.Freiermuth for 68 yards, TOUCHDOWN.19% → 58%
- 2Q4 0:11CINE.McPherson 36 yard field goal is GOODturning point49% → 81%
- 3Q4 0:03CINA.Rodgers pass incomplete deep left (D.Ivey).74% → 100%
- 4Q4 0:53PITJ.Flacco kneels to PIT 18 for -4 yards.31% → 51%
- 5Q2 2:58CINJ.Flacco pass short left to T.Higgins for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN.32% → 46%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
A.Rodgers led the Steelers at +13.6 EPA (23 of 34 for 249). J.Flacco led the Bengals at +15.7 EPA (31 of 47 for 342).
Steelers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.Rodgers100% | 23/34 | 249 | 4 | 2 | +13.3 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Warren65% | 16 | 80% | 127 | +6.1 | |
| K.Gainwell39% | 3 | 15% | 14 | +0.0 | |
| A.Rodgers100% | 1 | 5% | 6 | +0.3 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Smith70% | 6 | 18% | 3 | 28 | 1 | +2.0 |
| P.Freiermuth65% | 6 | 18% | 5 | 111 | 2 | +9.4 |
| D.Metcalf98% | 5 | 15% | 3 | 50 | +0.4 | |
| J.Warren65% | 5 | 15% | 4 | 31 | +0.5 | |
| D.Washington63% | 5 | 15% | 3 | 2 | 1 | +0.2 |
| K.Gainwell39% | 2 | 6% | 2 | 1 | -0.8 | |
| R.Wilson58% | 2 | 6% | 2 | 17 | +1.6 | |
| S.Miller14% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 9 | +0.8 | |
| C.Heyward5% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.7 |
Defense K.Benton 1 sack, C.Heyward 0.5 sacks, T.Watt 0.5 sacks · Kicking C.Boswell 1/1 FG (long 41)
Bengals
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Flacco100% | 31/47 | 342 | 3 | 2 | +15.1 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Brown63% | 11 | 48% | 108 | +3.9 | |
| S.Perine37% | 7 | 30% | 31 | +0.9 | |
| J.Flacco100% | 5 | 22% | 3 | +0.6 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Chase99% | 23 | 51% | 16 | 161 | 1 | +8.4 |
| T.Higgins87% | 10 | 22% | 6 | 96 | 1 | +7.3 |
| N.Fant68% | 4 | 9% | 4 | 44 | 1 | +5.9 |
| C.Brown63% | 4 | 9% | 2 | -8 | -3.2 | |
| A.Iosivas70% | 4 | 9% | 3 | 49 | +2.2 |
Defense D.II 1 INT, J.Battle 1 INT · Kicking E.McPherson 4/4 FG (long 49)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Tight ends feast
Bengals give up 9.7 targets a game to tight ends (32nd), against a league average of 7.3. Steelers' tight ends produce 8.9 (4th).
Deep left is open
Bengals are worst against deep left throws, allowing +0.70 EPA per attempt. Steelers send 6% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Wideouts get blanketed
Bengals give up 116 yards a game to wide receivers (3rd), against a league average of 140. Steelers' wide receivers produce 101 (29th).
Explosive play rate
Call this one even. Steelers create explosive plays on 9% of snaps (23rd). Bengals give them up at 12% (30th).
The Steelers lead the series 41–16 since 1999. They have won the last 2. Sep 27, 2026, at Acrisure Stadium: the Steelers won 30–27. Aaron Rodgers started at quarterback for the Steelers and Joe Burrow for the Bengals; Mike McCarthy and Zac Taylor coached.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 3 | CIN 27 at PIT 30 |
| 2025 · Wk 11 | CIN 12 at PIT 34 |
| 2025 · Wk 7 | PIT 31 at CIN 33 |
| 2024 · Wk 18 | CIN 19 at PIT 17 |
| 2024 · Wk 13 | PIT 44 at CIN 38 |
2025 records
| Steelers | Bengals | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10–7 | 6–11 |
| Division | 4–2 | 3–3 |
| Conference | 8–4 | 5–7 |
| Other conference | 2–3 | 1–4 |
| Home | 6–3 | 3–6 |
| Away | 4–4 | 3–5 |
| Last 5 | WWWLW | LLWWL |
| Streak | Won 1 | Lost 1 |
| Points a game | 23.4 – 22.8 | 24.4 – 28.9 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Steelers' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | PIT off | Favors PIT · Favors CIN | CIN def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | 0.00#18 | +0.13#29 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 43%#19 | 48%#28 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.2#21 | 6.3#32 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 9%#23 | 12%#30 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.01#21 | +0.16#28 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 6%#12 | 6%#22 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | 0.00#7 | +0.06#31 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.4#12 | 5.2#31 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 40%#17 | 44%#26 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 59%#15 | 65%#25 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 101#29 | 116#3 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 62#7 | 85#32 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 8.9#4 | 9.7#32 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 48#3 | 43#29 | 32 | |
Steelers: EPA per throw
Bengals: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.