2025
Week 11 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · Acrisure Stadium
vs
Bengals offensevsSteelers defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Bengals, 18 for Steelers. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Steelers won 34–12 and were favored the whole way, never below 58%. The biggest single swing came at Q3 0:51, 19 points for the Steelers.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q3 0:51PITJ.Flacco pass short middle intended for T.Higgins INTERCEPTED by K.Dugger [T.Watt] at PIT 27. K.Dugger for 73 yards, TOUCHDOWN.73% → 92%
- 2Q3 7:38PITM.Rudolph pass short left to D.Washington to CIN 37 for 17 yards (G.Stone).67% → 76%
- 3Q1 11:51PITJ.Warren left end to CIN 12 for 35 yards (D.Turner).68% → 76%
- 4Q2 3:41CINJ.Flacco pass short middle to C.Brown to CIN 38 for 17 yards (J.Porter).34% → 42%
- 5Q1 2:16PITDirect snap to Co.Heyward. Co.Heyward up the middle to PIT 39 for 1 yard (B.Carter; O.Burks). Cincinnati challenged the first down ruling, and the…66% → 73%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
A.Iosivas led the Bengals at +2.8 EPA (3 catches for 20). M.Rudolph led the Steelers at +10.7 EPA (12 of 16 for 127).
Bengals
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Flacco100% | 23/40 | 199 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -9.3 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Brown82% | 18 | 82% | 99 | +1.4 | |
| K.Milton6% | 2 | 9% | 2 | +0.9 | |
| J.Flacco100% | 1 | 5% | -1 | 0.0 | |
| T.Brooks11% | 1 | 5% | 5 | +0.2 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Chase97% | 10 | 26% | 3 | 30 | -3.0 | |
| T.Higgins92% | 8 | 21% | 3 | 63 | 1 | -7.8 |
| C.Brown82% | 8 | 21% | 6 | 28 | -1.3 | |
| N.Fant48% | 6 | 15% | 5 | 36 | -6.6 | |
| A.Iosivas74% | 4 | 10% | 3 | 20 | +2.8 | |
| T.Hudson33% | 3 | 8% | 3 | 22 | +0.5 |
Defense M.Murphy 1 sack · Kicking E.McPherson 2/2 FG (long 48)
Steelers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M.Rudolph43% | 12/16 | 127 | 1 | +10.7 | ||
| A.Rodgers57% | 9/15 | 116 | 1 | 1 | +1.2 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Warren28% | 10 | 36% | 62 | +0.3 | |
| K.Gainwell63% | 9 | 32% | 24 | -1.4 | |
| K.Johnson12% | 5 | 18% | 15 | -2.3 | |
| C.Heyward8% | 2 | 7% | 3 | +2.5 | |
| A.Rodgers57% | 1 | 4% | 8 | +0.6 | |
| M.Rudolph43% | 1 | 4% | -1 | 0.0 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Metcalf86% | 8 | 28% | 5 | 49 | +0.6 | |
| K.Gainwell63% | 8 | 28% | 7 | 81 | 2 | +10.9 |
| D.Washington71% | 5 | 17% | 4 | 67 | +3.6 | |
| J.Smith54% | 2 | 7% | 0 | 0 | -1.3 | |
| J.Warren28% | 2 | 7% | 2 | 5 | -0.5 | |
| R.Wilson57% | 2 | 7% | 1 | 17 | +2.1 | |
| P.Freiermuth46% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 19 | +1.8 | |
| C.III29% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 5 | -1.0 |
Defense K.Dugger 1 INT, N.Herbig 1 sack · Kicking C.Boswell 2/2 FG (long 30)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Third downs favor Bengals
Bengals convert 45% of third downs (4th). Steelers allow 44% (28th).
Deep middle is open
Steelers are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +1.12 EPA per attempt. Bengals send 3% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Passing lanes are closed
Bengals gain -0.03 EPA per dropback (23rd). Steelers allow +0.03 (17th).
EPA per play
Call this one even. Bengals average -0.01 EPA per play (20th). Steelers allow +0.02 (18th). League average is +0.01.
The Steelers lead the series 41–16 since 1999. They have won the last 2. Sep 27, 2026, at Acrisure Stadium: the Steelers won 30–27. Aaron Rodgers started at quarterback for the Steelers and Joe Burrow for the Bengals; Mike McCarthy and Zac Taylor coached.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 3 | CIN 27 at PIT 30 |
| 2025 · Wk 11 | CIN 12 at PIT 34 |
| 2025 · Wk 7 | PIT 31 at CIN 33 |
| 2024 · Wk 18 | CIN 19 at PIT 17 |
| 2024 · Wk 13 | PIT 44 at CIN 38 |
2025 records
| Bengals | Steelers | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6–11 | 10–7 |
| Division | 3–3 | 4–2 |
| Conference | 5–7 | 8–4 |
| Other conference | 1–4 | 2–3 |
| Home | 3–6 | 6–3 |
| Away | 3–5 | 4–4 |
| Last 5 | LLWWL | WWWLW |
| Streak | Lost 1 | Won 1 |
| Points a game | 24.4 – 28.9 | 23.4 – 22.8 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Bengals' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | CIN off | Favors CIN · Favors PIT | PIT def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.01#20 | +0.02#18 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 46%#10 | 44%#15 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.4#16 | 5.6#19 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 8%#27 | 9%#15 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.03#23 | +0.03#17 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 5%#10 | 7%#10 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | +0.02#5 | -0.01#26 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.3#13 | 4.3#19 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 45%#4 | 44%#28 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 73%#1 | 54%#7 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 167#5 | 167#29 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 52#15 | 64#28 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 7.6#12 | 8.3#28 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 30#15 | 30#16 | 32 | |
Bengals: EPA per throw
Steelers: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.