2025
Week 7 · Thursday 8:15 PM ET · Paycor Stadium
vs
Bengals offensevsSteelers defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Bengals, 18 for Steelers. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Bengals won 33–31 from as low as 9% (Q2 12:19, down 7–0). The Steelers had been 72% favorites at kickoff. The game turned for good at Q4 0:11: E.McPherson 36 yard field goal is GOOD (49% → 81%). The biggest single swing came at Q4 2:31, 39 points for the Steelers.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 2:31PITA.Rodgers pass deep left to P.Freiermuth for 68 yards, TOUCHDOWN.19% → 58%
- 2Q4 0:11CINE.McPherson 36 yard field goal is GOODturning point49% → 81%
- 3Q4 0:03CINA.Rodgers pass incomplete deep left (D.Ivey).74% → 100%
- 4Q4 0:53PITJ.Flacco kneels to PIT 18 for -4 yards.31% → 51%
- 5Q2 2:58CINJ.Flacco pass short left to T.Higgins for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN.32% → 46%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
A.Rodgers led the Steelers at +13.6 EPA (23 of 34 for 249). J.Flacco led the Bengals at +15.7 EPA (31 of 47 for 342).
Steelers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.Rodgers100% | 23/34 | 249 | 4 | 2 | +13.3 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Warren65% | 16 | 80% | 127 | +6.1 | |
| K.Gainwell39% | 3 | 15% | 14 | +0.0 | |
| A.Rodgers100% | 1 | 5% | 6 | +0.3 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Smith70% | 6 | 18% | 3 | 28 | 1 | +2.0 |
| P.Freiermuth65% | 6 | 18% | 5 | 111 | 2 | +9.4 |
| D.Metcalf98% | 5 | 15% | 3 | 50 | +0.4 | |
| J.Warren65% | 5 | 15% | 4 | 31 | +0.5 | |
| D.Washington63% | 5 | 15% | 3 | 2 | 1 | +0.2 |
| K.Gainwell39% | 2 | 6% | 2 | 1 | -0.8 | |
| R.Wilson58% | 2 | 6% | 2 | 17 | +1.6 | |
| S.Miller14% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 9 | +0.8 | |
| C.Heyward5% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.7 |
Defense K.Benton 1 sack, C.Heyward 0.5 sacks, T.Watt 0.5 sacks · Kicking C.Boswell 1/1 FG (long 41)
Bengals
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Flacco100% | 31/47 | 342 | 3 | 2 | +15.1 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Brown63% | 11 | 48% | 108 | +3.9 | |
| S.Perine37% | 7 | 30% | 31 | +0.9 | |
| J.Flacco100% | 5 | 22% | 3 | +0.6 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Chase99% | 23 | 51% | 16 | 161 | 1 | +8.4 |
| T.Higgins87% | 10 | 22% | 6 | 96 | 1 | +7.3 |
| N.Fant68% | 4 | 9% | 4 | 44 | 1 | +5.9 |
| C.Brown63% | 4 | 9% | 2 | -8 | -3.2 | |
| A.Iosivas70% | 4 | 9% | 3 | 49 | +2.2 |
Defense D.II 1 INT, J.Battle 1 INT · Kicking E.McPherson 4/4 FG (long 49)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Third downs favor Bengals
Bengals convert 45% of third downs (4th). Steelers allow 44% (28th).
Deep middle is open
Steelers are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +1.12 EPA per attempt. Bengals send 3% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Passing lanes are closed
Bengals gain -0.03 EPA per dropback (23rd). Steelers allow +0.03 (17th).
EPA per play
Call this one even. Bengals average -0.01 EPA per play (20th). Steelers allow +0.02 (18th). League average is +0.01.
The Steelers lead the series 41–16 since 1999. They have won the last 2. Sep 27, 2026, at Acrisure Stadium: the Steelers won 30–27. Aaron Rodgers started at quarterback for the Steelers and Joe Burrow for the Bengals; Mike McCarthy and Zac Taylor coached.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 3 | CIN 27 at PIT 30 |
| 2025 · Wk 11 | CIN 12 at PIT 34 |
| 2025 · Wk 7 | PIT 31 at CIN 33 |
| 2024 · Wk 18 | CIN 19 at PIT 17 |
| 2024 · Wk 13 | PIT 44 at CIN 38 |
2025 records
| Steelers | Bengals | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10–7 | 6–11 |
| Division | 4–2 | 3–3 |
| Conference | 8–4 | 5–7 |
| Other conference | 2–3 | 1–4 |
| Home | 6–3 | 3–6 |
| Away | 4–4 | 3–5 |
| Last 5 | WWWLW | LLWWL |
| Streak | Won 1 | Lost 1 |
| Points a game | 23.4 – 22.8 | 24.4 – 28.9 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Steelers' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | CIN off | Favors CIN · Favors PIT | PIT def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.01#20 | +0.02#18 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 46%#10 | 44%#15 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.4#16 | 5.6#19 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 8%#27 | 9%#15 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.03#23 | +0.03#17 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 5%#10 | 7%#10 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | +0.02#5 | -0.01#26 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.3#13 | 4.3#19 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 45%#4 | 44%#28 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 73%#1 | 54%#7 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 167#5 | 167#29 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 52#15 | 64#28 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 7.6#12 | 8.3#28 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 30#15 | 30#16 | 32 | |
Bengals: EPA per throw
Steelers: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.