2025
Week 7 · Monday 10:00 PM ET · Lumen Field
vs
Texans offensevsSeahawks defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 19 games for Texans, 20 for Seahawks. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Seahawks won 27–19 and were favored the whole way, never below 53%. The biggest single swing came at Q3 7:33, 15 points for the Texans.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q3 7:33HOUS.Darnold sacked at SEA -5 for -12 yards (W.Anderson). FUMBLES (W.Anderson) [W.Anderson], RECOVERED by HOU-W.Anderson at SEA -5. TOUCHDOWN.12% → 27%
- 2Q1 11:10SEAC.Stroud sacked at HOU 1 for -18 yards (U.Nwosu).57% → 67%
- 3Q3 14:14SEAC.Stroud pass deep middle intended for N.Collins INTERCEPTED by E.Jones [J.Jobe] at HOU 46. E.Jones pushed ob at HOU 18 for 28 yards (N.Chubb).…81% → 88%
- 4Q2 7:10HOUC.Kupp pass short right intended for J.Smith-Njigba INTERCEPTED by C.Bullock at HOU 12. C.Bullock pushed ob at HOU 23 for 11 yards (J.Smith-Njigba).5% → 12%
- 5Q1 0:02SEAS.Darnold pass short right to J.Smith-Njigba for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN [T.Togiai]. PENALTY on SEA-J.Smith-Njigba, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards,…83% → 89%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
D.Schultz led the Texans at +6.2 EPA (9 catches for 98). J.Smith-Njigba led the Seahawks at +4.1 EPA (8 catches for 123).
Texans
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Stroud100% | 23/49 | 229 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -13.5 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W.Marks63% | 10 | 59% | 15 | -9.8 | |
| N.Chubb25% | 5 | 29% | 16 | -1.2 | |
| C.Stroud100% | 2 | 12% | 25 | +2.8 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Schultz75% | 10 | 22% | 9 | 98 | +6.2 | |
| N.Collins51% | 10 | 22% | 4 | 27 | -6.5 | |
| J.Noel43% | 7 | 15% | 4 | 77 | +3.8 | |
| W.Marks63% | 5 | 11% | 3 | 20 | 1 | +1.6 |
| X.Hutchinson78% | 4 | 9% | 1 | 13 | -2.1 | |
| B.Berrios47% | 3 | 7% | 1 | -1 | -1.7 | |
| N.Chubb25% | 3 | 7% | 1 | -5 | -2.2 | |
| J.Higgins63% | 3 | 7% | 0 | 0 | -4.0 | |
| D.Ogunbowale12% | 1 | 2% | 0 | 0 | -1.8 |
Defense D.Jr. 1 INT, C.Bullock 1 INT, D.Autry 1 sack, W.Jr. 1 sack · Kicking K.Fairbairn 2/2 FG (long 46)
Seahawks
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S.Darnold100% | 17/31 | 213 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -5.6 |
| C.Kupp75% | 0/1 | 0 | 1 | -5.4 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.III44% | 17 | 52% | 66 | -4.5 | |
| Z.Charbonnet51% | 12 | 36% | 49 | 2 | -1.0 |
| S.Darnold100% | 3 | 9% | 1 | +2.1 | |
| A.Barner86% | 1 | 3% | 2 | +2.2 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Smith-Njigba88% | 14 | 48% | 8 | 123 | 1 | +4.1 |
| E.Arroyo38% | 5 | 17% | 4 | 42 | -2.0 | |
| A.Barner86% | 3 | 10% | 1 | 7 | -5.2 | |
| T.Horton39% | 3 | 10% | 0 | 0 | -3.1 | |
| Z.Charbonnet51% | 2 | 7% | 2 | 6 | -0.6 | |
| C.Kupp75% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 32 | +2.1 | |
| J.Bobo22% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 3 | -0.5 |
Defense E.Jones 1 INT, D.Lawrence 1 sack, U.Nwosu 1 sack, T.Okada 1 sack · Kicking J.Myers 2/3 FG (long 47)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Tight ends feast
Seahawks give up 8.3 targets a game to tight ends (27th), against a league average of 7.3. Texans' tight ends produce 7.7 (11th).
Deep middle is open
Seahawks are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +0.37 EPA per attempt. Texans send 3% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Nowhere to run
Texans' run game is 30th in EPA per carry (-0.11). Seahawks allow -0.19 (1st).
Yards per play
Call this one even. Texans gain 5.1 yards per play (25th). Seahawks give up 4.8 (4th), with the league at 5.4.
The Seahawks lead the series 5–1 since 1999 (they first met in 2005). They have won the last 4. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 7 | HOU 19 at SEA 27 |
| 2021 · Wk 14 | SEA 33 at HOU 13 |
| 2017 · Wk 8 | HOU 38 at SEA 41 |
| 2013 · Wk 4 · OT | SEA 23 at HOU 20 |
| 2009 · Wk 14 | SEA 7 at HOU 34 |
2025 records
| Texans | Seahawks | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12–5 | 14–3 |
| Division | 5–1 | 4–2 |
| Conference | 10–2 | 9–3 |
| Other conference | 2–3 | 5–0 |
| Home | 7–2 | 6–2 |
| Away | 5–3 | 8–1 |
| Last 5 | WWWWW | WWWWW |
| Streak | Won 9 | Won 7 |
| Points a game | 23.8 – 17.4 | 28.4 – 17.2 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Texans' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | HOU off | Favors HOU · Favors SEA | SEA def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.03#24 | -0.12#2 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 41%#28 | 40%#3 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.1#25 | 4.8#4 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 8%#25 | 8%#2 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.00#16 | -0.12#5 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 5%#9 | 7%#11 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.11#30 | -0.19#1 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 3.8#28 | 3.5#1 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 40%#18 | 34%#1 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 46%#30 | 54%#6 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 160#8 | 118#5 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 51#16 | 63#27 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 7.7#11 | 8.3#27 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 21#29 | 41#27 | 32 | |
Texans: EPA per throw
Seahawks: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.