2025
Week 7 · Monday 10:00 PM ET · Lumen Field
vs
Seahawks offensevsTexans defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 20 games for Seahawks, 19 for Texans. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Seahawks won 27–19 and were favored the whole way, never below 53%. The biggest single swing came at Q3 7:33, 15 points for the Texans.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q3 7:33HOUS.Darnold sacked at SEA -5 for -12 yards (W.Anderson). FUMBLES (W.Anderson) [W.Anderson], RECOVERED by HOU-W.Anderson at SEA -5. TOUCHDOWN.12% → 27%
- 2Q1 11:10SEAC.Stroud sacked at HOU 1 for -18 yards (U.Nwosu).57% → 67%
- 3Q3 14:14SEAC.Stroud pass deep middle intended for N.Collins INTERCEPTED by E.Jones [J.Jobe] at HOU 46. E.Jones pushed ob at HOU 18 for 28 yards (N.Chubb).…81% → 88%
- 4Q2 7:10HOUC.Kupp pass short right intended for J.Smith-Njigba INTERCEPTED by C.Bullock at HOU 12. C.Bullock pushed ob at HOU 23 for 11 yards (J.Smith-Njigba).5% → 12%
- 5Q1 0:02SEAS.Darnold pass short right to J.Smith-Njigba for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN [T.Togiai]. PENALTY on SEA-J.Smith-Njigba, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards,…83% → 89%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
D.Schultz led the Texans at +6.2 EPA (9 catches for 98). J.Smith-Njigba led the Seahawks at +4.1 EPA (8 catches for 123).
Texans
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Stroud100% | 23/49 | 229 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -13.5 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W.Marks63% | 10 | 59% | 15 | -9.8 | |
| N.Chubb25% | 5 | 29% | 16 | -1.2 | |
| C.Stroud100% | 2 | 12% | 25 | +2.8 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Schultz75% | 10 | 22% | 9 | 98 | +6.2 | |
| N.Collins51% | 10 | 22% | 4 | 27 | -6.5 | |
| J.Noel43% | 7 | 15% | 4 | 77 | +3.8 | |
| W.Marks63% | 5 | 11% | 3 | 20 | 1 | +1.6 |
| X.Hutchinson78% | 4 | 9% | 1 | 13 | -2.1 | |
| B.Berrios47% | 3 | 7% | 1 | -1 | -1.7 | |
| N.Chubb25% | 3 | 7% | 1 | -5 | -2.2 | |
| J.Higgins63% | 3 | 7% | 0 | 0 | -4.0 | |
| D.Ogunbowale12% | 1 | 2% | 0 | 0 | -1.8 |
Defense D.Jr. 1 INT, C.Bullock 1 INT, D.Autry 1 sack, W.Jr. 1 sack · Kicking K.Fairbairn 2/2 FG (long 46)
Seahawks
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S.Darnold100% | 17/31 | 213 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -5.6 |
| C.Kupp75% | 0/1 | 0 | 1 | -5.4 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.III44% | 17 | 52% | 66 | -4.5 | |
| Z.Charbonnet51% | 12 | 36% | 49 | 2 | -1.0 |
| S.Darnold100% | 3 | 9% | 1 | +2.1 | |
| A.Barner86% | 1 | 3% | 2 | +2.2 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Smith-Njigba88% | 14 | 48% | 8 | 123 | 1 | +4.1 |
| E.Arroyo38% | 5 | 17% | 4 | 42 | -2.0 | |
| A.Barner86% | 3 | 10% | 1 | 7 | -5.2 | |
| T.Horton39% | 3 | 10% | 0 | 0 | -3.1 | |
| Z.Charbonnet51% | 2 | 7% | 2 | 6 | -0.6 | |
| C.Kupp75% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 32 | +2.1 | |
| J.Bobo22% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 3 | -0.5 |
Defense E.Jones 1 INT, D.Lawrence 1 sack, U.Nwosu 1 sack, T.Okada 1 sack · Kicking J.Myers 2/3 FG (long 47)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Wideouts feast
Texans give up 128 yards a game to wide receivers (10th), against a league average of 140. Seahawks' wide receivers produce 168 (4th).
Deep left is open
Texans are worst against deep left throws, allowing +0.68 EPA per attempt. Seahawks send 7% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Tight ends go quiet
Texans give up 43 yards a game to tight ends (5th), against a league average of 53. Seahawks' tight ends produce 40 (27th).
Explosive play rate
Call this one even. Seahawks create explosive plays on 11% of snaps (7th). Texans give them up at 8% (8th).
The Seahawks lead the series 5–1 since 1999 (they first met in 2005). They have won the last 4. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 7 | HOU 19 at SEA 27 |
| 2021 · Wk 14 | SEA 33 at HOU 13 |
| 2017 · Wk 8 | HOU 38 at SEA 41 |
| 2013 · Wk 4 · OT | SEA 23 at HOU 20 |
| 2009 · Wk 14 | SEA 7 at HOU 34 |
2025 records
| Texans | Seahawks | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12–5 | 14–3 |
| Division | 5–1 | 4–2 |
| Conference | 10–2 | 9–3 |
| Other conference | 2–3 | 5–0 |
| Home | 7–2 | 6–2 |
| Away | 5–3 | 8–1 |
| Last 5 | WWWWW | WWWWW |
| Streak | Won 9 | Won 7 |
| Points a game | 23.8 – 17.4 | 28.4 – 17.2 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Texans' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | SEA off | Favors SEA · Favors HOU | HOU def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.04#10 | -0.16#1 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 46%#8 | 37%#2 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.9#7 | 4.7#2 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 11%#7 | 8%#8 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.13#7 | -0.22#1 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 5%#11 | 9%#6 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.06#21 | -0.16#2 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.2#17 | 3.5#2 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 43%#10 | 36%#6 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 57%#21 | 60%#21 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 168#4 | 128#10 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 40#27 | 43#5 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 5.5#30 | 7.0#13 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 29#16 | 31#18 | 32 | |
Seahawks: EPA per throw
Texans: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.