2025
Week 7 · Sunday 4:25 PM ET · AT&T Stadium
vs
Commanders offensevsCowboys defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Commanders, 17 for Cowboys. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Cowboys won 44–22; their low point was 46% at Q1 7:38. The game turned for good at Q1 6:14: B.Aubrey kicks 60 yards from DAL 35 to WAS 5. L.McCaffrey to WAS 29 for 24 yards (B.Spann-Ford; H.Luepke). PENALTY on WAS-C.Yankoff, Tripping, 13… (50% → 51%). The biggest single swing came at Q1 4:38, 15 points for the Cowboys.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q1 4:38DALD.Prescott pass deep middle to C.Lamb for 74 yards, TOUCHDOWN.59% → 74%
- 2Q2 0:31DALD.Prescott pass deep left to G.Pickens pushed ob at WAS 35 for 44 yards (M.Lattimore).67% → 78%
- 3Q1 13:15DALD.Prescott pass incomplete deep left to G.Pickens. PENALTY on WAS-M.Lattimore, Defensive Pass Interference, 37 yards, enforced at WAS 39 - No Play.62% → 72%
- 4Q1 9:31WASJ.Daniels pass deep right to C.Moore pushed ob at DAL 9 for 44 yards (A.Clark) [J.Houston]. Penalty on DAL-D.Wilson, Defensive Holding, declined.42% → 52%
- 5Q1 11:35WASJ.Williams up the middle tackled in End Zone for -1 yards, SAFETY (D.Payne, J.Martin).31% → 40%
- ★Q1 6:14DALB.Aubrey kicks 60 yards from DAL 35 to WAS 5. L.McCaffrey to WAS 29 for 24 yards (B.Spann-Ford; H.Luepke). PENALTY on WAS-C.Yankoff, Tripping, 13…turning point50% → 51%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
C.Moore led the Commanders at +3.2 EPA (2 catches for 59). D.Prescott led the Cowboys at +7.4 EPA (21 of 30 for 264).
Commanders
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Daniels69% | 12/22 | 156 | 1 | 2 | -5.9 | |
| M.Mariota31% | 4/10 | 63 | 1 | 2 | -14.1 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Croskey-Merritt49% | 13 | 46% | 33 | -2.5 | |
| J.Daniels69% | 8 | 29% | 35 | 1 | +2.4 |
| C.Jr.13% | 3 | 11% | 12 | 1 | +1.6 |
| M.Mariota31% | 2 | 7% | 34 | +2.7 | |
| J.McNichols36% | 2 | 7% | 22 | +1.6 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Z.Ertz67% | 7 | 23% | 3 | 37 | 1 | -0.2 |
| J.Lane69% | 6 | 19% | 3 | 60 | +1.7 | |
| C.Moore79% | 5 | 16% | 2 | 59 | +3.2 | |
| R.Chosen49% | 4 | 13% | 4 | 36 | +1.8 | |
| J.McNichols36% | 3 | 10% | 2 | 23 | -8.0 | |
| J.Bates43% | 2 | 6% | 1 | 5 | -0.4 | |
| L.McCaffrey54% | 2 | 6% | 0 | 0 | -5.9 | |
| J.Croskey-Merritt49% | 2 | 6% | 1 | -1 | -2.1 |
Defense V.Miller 0.5 sacks, J.Martin 0.5 sacks
Cowboys
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Prescott100% | 21/30 | 264 | 3 | 1 | +7.2 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Williams69% | 19 | 61% | 116 | 1 | +0.3 |
| J.Blue22% | 7 | 23% | 29 | -1.8 | |
| D.Prescott100% | 5 | 16% | 7 | +0.3 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Lamb78% | 8 | 27% | 5 | 110 | 1 | +4.1 |
| J.Ferguson66% | 7 | 23% | 7 | 29 | 2 | +3.2 |
| G.Pickens84% | 6 | 20% | 4 | 82 | +3.8 | |
| J.Williams69% | 4 | 13% | 1 | 2 | -3.8 | |
| J.Tolbert49% | 2 | 7% | 1 | 16 | +0.4 | |
| K.Turpin30% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 17 | +1.2 | |
| H.Luepke16% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 3 | -1.1 | |
| J.Blue22% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 5 | -0.1 |
Defense D.Bland 1 INT, J.Clowney 1 sack, K.Jr. 1 sack, S.James 1 sack · Kicking B.Aubrey 3/3 FG (long 61)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Red zone touchdowns
Commanders score a touchdown on 67% of red zone trips (6th). Cowboys allow 67% (29th).
Deep middle is open
Cowboys are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +1.41 EPA per attempt. Commanders send 4% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Tight ends go quiet
Cowboys give up 6.8 targets a game to tight ends (12th), against a league average of 7.3. Commanders' tight ends produce 6.1 (22nd).
EPA per play
Call this one even. Commanders average +0.01 EPA per play (17th). Cowboys allow +0.17 (32nd). League average is +0.01.
The Cowboys lead the series 39–16 since 1999. They have won the last 3. Sep 20, 2026, at AT&T Stadium: the Cowboys won 37–20. Dak Prescott started at quarterback for the Cowboys and Jayden Daniels for the Commanders; Brian Schottenheimer and Dan Quinn coached.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 2 | WAS 20 at DAL 37 |
| 2025 · Wk 17 | DAL 30 at WAS 23 |
| 2025 · Wk 7 | WAS 22 at DAL 44 |
| 2024 · Wk 18 | WAS 23 at DAL 19 |
| 2024 · Wk 12 | DAL 34 at WAS 26 |
2025 records
| Commanders | Cowboys | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5–12 | 7–9–1 |
| Division | 3–3 | 4–2 |
| Conference | 3–9 | 4–7–1 |
| Other conference | 2–3 | 3–2 |
| Home | 2–6 | 4–3–1 |
| Away | 3–6 | 3–6 |
| Last 5 | LWLLW | LLLWL |
| Streak | Won 1 | Lost 1 |
| Points a game | 20.9 – 26.5 | 27.7 – 30.1 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Commanders' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | WAS off | Favors WAS · Favors DAL | DAL def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.01#17 | +0.17#32 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 46%#9 | 49%#32 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.6#12 | 6.3#31 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 10%#11 | 12%#31 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.01#17 | +0.22#31 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 7%#20 | 6%#24 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.04#11 | +0.05#30 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.5#9 | 4.7#27 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 39%#22 | 48%#32 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 67%#6 | 67%#29 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 133#18 | 171#32 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 43#24 | 52#15 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 6.1#22 | 6.8#12 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 20#31 | 43#31 | 32 | |
Commanders: EPA per throw
Cowboys: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.