DOWN X DOWN › week 7 › Dolphins at Browns

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2025

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Week 7 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · FirstEnergy Stadium

Dolphins offensevsBrowns defense

Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Dolphins, 17 for Browns. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.

MIA offense CLE offense

How it played out · win probability, snap by snapFinal · MIA 6 · CLE 31

The Browns won 31–6; their low point was 49% at Q1 0:43. The game turned for good at Q1 0:43: O.Gordon right guard to CLE 17 for -1 yards (I.McGuire, A.Huntington) (49% → 52%). The biggest single swing came at Q2 11:28, 13 points for the Browns.

At kickoffCLE 57%CLE by 2.5 on the line

CLE low point49%Q1 0:43 · up 3⁠–⁠0

Swings past 50%6times the favorite changed

Biggest swing13 ptsCLE · Q2 11:28

CLE wins50%MIA wins

12345Turning pointCLE low 49%

Q1Q2Q3Q4

The plays that swung it

1Q2 11:28CLEL.Q.Judkins right guard for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA-M.Fitzpatrick was injured during the play.59% → 71%+13
2Q1 2:12MIAD.Achane left end pushed ob at CLE 31 for 46 yards (T.Campbell).41% → 50%+9
3Q3 14:56CLET.Tagovailoa pass short left intended for D.Achane INTERCEPTED by T.Campbell at MIA 34. T.Campbell for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN.86% → 95%+8
4Q2 11:19CLEA.Szmyt kicks 57 yards from CLE 35 to MIA 8. D.Eskridge to MIA 31 for 23 yards (G.Delpit). FUMBLES (G.Delpit), touched at MIA 33, RECOVERED by…71% → 79%+7
5Q1 6:37CLED.Gabriel pass short left to J.Jeudy to CLE 42 for 16 yards (I.Melifonwu).51% → 59%+7
★Q1 0:43CLEO.Gordon right guard to CLE 17 for -1 yards (I.McGuire, A.Huntington).turning point49% → 52%+3

Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.

Box score · every offensive player who touched the ballWeek 7

D.Eskridge led the Dolphins at +3.8 EPA (2 catches for 45). J.Thrash led the Browns at +1.9 EPA (1 catches for 23).

Dolphins

Passing	C/A	Yds	TD	INT	Sk	EPA
T.Tagovailoa79%	12/23	100		3	2	-23.5
Q.Ewers21%	5/8	53			2	-3.0

Rushing	Car	Share	Yds	EPA
D.Achane55%	13	59%	82	-0.6
O.II31%	5	23%	11	-0.3
T.Tagovailoa79%	3	14%	6	-3.4
Q.Ewers21%	1	5%	0	-1.0

Receiving	Tgt	Share	Rec	Yds	EPA
M.Washington64%	8	27%	5	30	-3.8
D.Achane55%	5	17%	3	16	-8.7
N.Westbrook-Ikhine76%	4	13%	3	16	-0.7
J.Waddle76%	4	13%	1	15	-0.5
T.Conner31%	3	10%	1	28	-3.4
D.Eskridge29%	2	7%	2	45	+3.8
J.Hill60%	2	7%	1	1	-4.6
O.II31%	2	7%	1	2	-1.4

Defense T.Dodson 1 sack, J.Phillips 1 sack · Kicking R.Patterson 2/2 FG (long 33)

Browns

Passing	C/A	Yds	TD	INT	Sk	EPA
D.Gabriel95%	13/18	116			2	+0.9

Rushing	Car	Share	Yds	TD	EPA
Q.Judkins65%	25	76%	84	3	-1.7
D.Gabriel95%	4	12%	12		-2.4
D.Sampson16%	3	9%	8		-1.3
J.Ford23%	1	3%	0		-1.6

Receiving	Tgt	Share	Rec	Yds	EPA
H.Jr.82%	5	28%	4	36	+1.8
J.Jeudy68%	4	22%	2	17	-1.1
J.Ford23%	2	11%	2	10	+1.0
J.Thrash42%	2	11%	1	23	+1.9
M.Corley23%	2	11%	2	17	+1.3
B.Whiteheart61%	1	6%	1	4	-1.2
D.Sampson16%	1	6%	1	9	+0.9
G.Larvadain32%	1	6%	0	0	-0.7

Defense R.Jenkins 1 INT, T.Campbell 1 INT, R.Jr. 1 INT, M.Garrett 1 sack · Kicking A.Szmyt 1/1 FG (long 30)

Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.

Keys to the game · from the season numbers, not this game alone4 reads

Biggest edge

Ground game edge

Dolphins average 4.8 yards per carry (3rd). Browns allow 4.2 (17th).

Opportunity

Deep middle is open

Browns are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +0.50 EPA per attempt. Dolphins send 2% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.

Watch out

Wideouts get blanketed

Browns give up 110 yards a game to wide receivers (1st), against a league average of 140. Dolphins' wide receivers produce 110 (26th).

Wash

Explosive play rate

Call this one even. Dolphins create explosive plays on 10% of snaps (9th). Browns give them up at 9% (13th).

The series · Dolphins and Browns since 1999, and this season's records11 meetings

The Browns lead the series 6–5 since 1999 (they first met in 2004). This game is the latest meeting.

Dolphins at home3–1the Dolphins' record

In Cleveland2–5the Dolphins' record

Most pointsDolphins 39 · Browns 412022 · 2007

Biggest winDolphins by 22 · Browns by 252022 · 2025

The last 5

2025 · Wk 7	MIA 6 at CLE 31
2024 · Wk 17	MIA 20 at CLE 3
2022 · Wk 10	CLE 17 at MIA 39
2019 · Wk 12	MIA 24 at CLE 41
2016 · Wk 3 · OT	CLE 24 at MIA 30

2025 records

	Dolphins	Browns
Overall	7–10	5–12
Division	3–3	2–4
Conference	3–9	4–8
Other conference	4–1	1–4
Home	5–4	3–6
Away	2–6	2–6
Last 5	WLLWL	LLLWW
Streak	Lost 1	Won 2
Points a game	20.4 – 24.9	16.4 – 22.3

Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Dolphins' side. Records are this regular season.

Head to head · MIA offense against CLE defense

Stat	MIA off	CLE def allows	NFL avg
Overall
EPA per play	-0.02#21	-0.09#4	+0.01
Success rate	42%#26	40%#4	44%
Yards per play	5.5#14	4.9#5	5.4
Explosive play rate	10%#9	9%#13	10%
Passing
Pass EPA per dropback	-0.01#18	-0.13#3	+0.01
Sack rate	7%#19	10%#3	7%
Running
Run EPA per carry	-0.03#9	-0.07#15	-0.05
Yards per carry	4.8#3	4.2#17	4.3
Money downs
3rd down conversion	35%#26	37%#8	40%
Red zone TD rate	56%#23	63%#22	59%
Targets by position
WR yards per game	110#26	110#1	140
TE yards per game	50#19	52#16	53
TE targets per game	6.0#25	7.1#14	7.3
RB receiving yards per game	36#9	27#8	32

Where the ball goes · EPA per throwDeep is 15+ air yds

Dolphins: EPA per throw

Left

Middle

Right

Deep

+0.148% of throws

+0.182% of throws

+0.076% of throws

Short

+0.1335% of throws

+0.2216% of throws

+0.0633% of throws

Browns: EPA allowed per throw

Left

Middle

Right

Deep

-0.0837 throws

+0.5016 throws

+0.2633 throws