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DOWN X DOWN › week 7 › Dolphins at Browns
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Week 7 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · FirstEnergy Stadium

CLEvsMIA

Browns offensevsDolphins defense

Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Browns, 17 for Dolphins. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.

MIA offenseCLE offense
How it played out · win probability, snap by snapFinal · MIA 6 · CLE 31

The Browns won 31–6; their low point was 49% at Q1 0:43. The game turned for good at Q1 0:43: O.Gordon right guard to CLE 17 for -1 yards (I.McGuire, A.Huntington) (49% → 52%). The biggest single swing came at Q2 11:28, 13 points for the Browns.

At kickoffCLE 57%CLE by 2.5 on the line
CLE low point49%Q1 0:43 · up 3⁠–⁠0
Swings past 50%6times the favorite changed
Biggest swing13 ptsCLE · Q2 11:28
CLE wins50%MIA wins
Q1Q2Q3Q4

The plays that swung it

  1. 1Q2 11:28CLEL.Q.Judkins right guard for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA-M.Fitzpatrick was injured during the play.59% → 71%+13
  2. 2Q1 2:12MIAD.Achane left end pushed ob at CLE 31 for 46 yards (T.Campbell).41% → 50%+9
  3. 3Q3 14:56CLET.Tagovailoa pass short left intended for D.Achane INTERCEPTED by T.Campbell at MIA 34. T.Campbell for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN.86% → 95%+8
  4. 4Q2 11:19CLEA.Szmyt kicks 57 yards from CLE 35 to MIA 8. D.Eskridge to MIA 31 for 23 yards (G.Delpit). FUMBLES (G.Delpit), touched at MIA 33, RECOVERED by…71% → 79%+7
  5. 5Q1 6:37CLED.Gabriel pass short left to J.Jeudy to CLE 42 for 16 yards (I.Melifonwu).51% → 59%+7
  6. ★Q1 0:43CLEO.Gordon right guard to CLE 17 for -1 yards (I.McGuire, A.Huntington).turning point49% → 52%+3

Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.

Box score · every offensive player who touched the ballWeek 7

D.Eskridge led the Dolphins at +3.8 EPA (2 catches for 45). J.Thrash led the Browns at +1.9 EPA (1 catches for 23).

MIA Dolphins

PassingC/AYdsTDINTSkEPA
T.Tagovailoa79%12/2310032-23.5
Q.Ewers21%5/8532-3.0
RushingCarShareYdsTDEPA
D.Achane55%1359%82-0.6
O.II31%523%11-0.3
T.Tagovailoa79%314%6-3.4
Q.Ewers21%15%0-1.0
ReceivingTgtShareRecYdsTDEPA
M.Washington64%827%530-3.8
D.Achane55%517%316-8.7
N.Westbrook-Ikhine76%413%316-0.7
J.Waddle76%413%115-0.5
T.Conner31%310%128-3.4
D.Eskridge29%27%245+3.8
J.Hill60%27%11-4.6
O.II31%27%12-1.4

Defense T.Dodson 1 sack, J.Phillips 1 sack · Kicking R.Patterson 2/2 FG (long 33)

CLE Browns

PassingC/AYdsTDINTSkEPA
D.Gabriel95%13/181162+0.9
RushingCarShareYdsTDEPA
Q.Judkins65%2576%843-1.7
D.Gabriel95%412%12-2.4
D.Sampson16%39%8-1.3
J.Ford23%13%0-1.6
ReceivingTgtShareRecYdsTDEPA
H.Jr.82%528%436+1.8
J.Jeudy68%422%217-1.1
J.Ford23%211%210+1.0
J.Thrash42%211%123+1.9
M.Corley23%211%217+1.3
B.Whiteheart61%16%14-1.2
D.Sampson16%16%19+0.9
G.Larvadain32%16%00-0.7

Defense R.Jenkins 1 INT, T.Campbell 1 INT, R.Jr. 1 INT, M.Garrett 1 sack · Kicking A.Szmyt 1/1 FG (long 30)

Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.

Keys to the game · from the season numbers, not this game alone4 reads
01
Biggest edge

Tight ends feast

Dolphins give up 66 yards a game to tight ends (29th), against a league average of 53. Browns' tight ends produce 63 (6th).

02
Opportunity

Deep middle is open

Dolphins are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +0.54 EPA per attempt. Browns send 4% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.

03
Watch out

Wideouts get blanketed

Dolphins give up 127 yards a game to wide receivers (9th), against a league average of 140. Browns' wide receivers produce 86 (32nd).

04
Wash

Success rate

Call this one even. Browns succeed on 35% of plays (32nd) against a defense that allows 48% (29th).

The series · Dolphins and Browns since 1999, and this season's records11 meetings

The Browns lead the series 6–5 since 1999 (they first met in 2004). This game is the latest meeting.

Dolphins at home3–1the Dolphins' record
In Cleveland2–5the Dolphins' record
Most pointsDolphins 39 · Browns 412022 · 2007
Biggest winDolphins by 22 · Browns by 252022 · 2025

The last 5

2025 · Wk 7MIA 6 at CLE 31
2024 · Wk 17MIA 20 at CLE 3
2022 · Wk 10CLE 17 at MIA 39
2019 · Wk 12MIA 24 at CLE 41
2016 · Wk 3 · OTCLE 24 at MIA 30

2025 records

DolphinsBrowns
Overall7–105–12
Division3–32–4
Conference3–94–8
Other conference4–11–4
Home5–43–6
Away2–62–6
Last 5WLLWLLLLWW
StreakLost 1Won 2
Points a game20.4 – 24.916.4 – 22.3

Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Dolphins' side. Records are this regular season.

Head to head · CLE offense against MIA defense
StatCLE CLE offFavors CLE · Favors MIAMIA MIA def allowsNFL avg
Overall
EPA per play
-0.19#31
+0.09#26+0.01
Success rate
35%#32
48%#2944%
Yards per play
4.4#32
5.9#265.4
Explosive play rate
7%#30
11%#2510%
Passing
Pass EPA per dropback
-0.29#32
+0.13#26+0.01
Sack rate
8%#25
7%#137%
Running
Run EPA per carry
-0.09#25
-0.03#20-0.05
Yards per carry
3.6#30
4.6#254.3
Money downs
3rd down conversion
34%#29
41%#1740%
Red zone TD rate
50%#26
65%#2659%
Targets by position
WR yards per game
86#32
127#9140
TE yards per game
63#6
66#2953
TE targets per game
9.9#2
8.2#257.3
RB receiving yards per game
37#7
37#2532
Where the ball goes · EPA per throwDeep is 15+ air yds

Browns: EPA per throw

Left
Middle
Right
Deep
-0.296% of throws
+0.114% of throws
-0.366% of throws
Short
-0.1932% of throws
+0.0821% of throws
-0.2230% of throws

Dolphins: EPA allowed per throw

Left
Middle
Right
Deep
+0.1842 throws
+0.5411 throws
+0.4640 throws
Short
+0.12165 throws
+0.5379 throws
+0.29177 throws

Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.