2025
Week 7 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · MetLife Stadium
vs
Panthers offensevsJets defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 18 games for Panthers, 17 for Jets. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Panthers won 13–6; their low point was 38% at Q1 13:48. The Jets had been 54% favorites at kickoff. The game turned for good at Q2 5:22: M.B.Hall right guard to NYJ 8 for 1 yard (D.Brown) (50% → 52%). The biggest single swing came at Q3 3:56, 10 points for the Panthers.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q3 3:56CARS.Martin punts 68 yards to NYJ 21, downed by CAR-B.Tremayne.72% → 82%
- 2Q2 2:12CARB.Young pass short right to T.McMillan to NYJ 34 for 11 yards (J.Brownlee).53% → 62%
- 3Q2 14:56NYJR.Dowdle up the middle to CAR 49 for no gain (W.McDonald; M.Walker).38% → 47%
- 4Q4 4:34CART.Taylor pass deep right intended for J.Reynolds INTERCEPTED by Ja.Horn at CAR 40. Ja.Horn to CAR 40 for no gain (J.Reynolds).84% → 93%
- 5Q2 13:31NYJJ.Fields left end to CAR 37 for 4 yards (N.Scott). NYJ-J.Fields was injured during the play. PENALTY on CAR-N.Scott, Unnecessary Roughness, 15…47% → 56%
- ★Q2 5:22CARM.B.Hall right guard to NYJ 8 for 1 yard (D.Brown).turning point50% → 52%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
X.Legette led the Panthers at +3.4 EPA (9 catches for 92). T.Johnson led the Jets at +5.4 EPA (3 catches for 60).
Panthers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Young69% | 15/25 | 138 | 1 | 1 | +0.1 | |
| A.Dalton31% | 4/7 | 60 | 1 | -2.7 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R.Dowdle46% | 17 | 47% | 79 | +1.2 | |
| C.Hubbard54% | 14 | 39% | 31 | -2.7 | |
| A.Dalton31% | 2 | 6% | -2 | -3.0 | |
| B.Young69% | 2 | 6% | 10 | -0.5 | |
| J.Jr.21% | 1 | 3% | 7 | +0.5 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| X.Legette80% | 11 | 35% | 9 | 92 | 1 | +3.4 |
| T.McMillan87% | 5 | 16% | 3 | 33 | +1.4 | |
| C.Hubbard54% | 3 | 10% | 2 | 24 | +0.8 | |
| M.Evans44% | 3 | 10% | 2 | 24 | +1.6 | |
| R.Dowdle46% | 2 | 6% | 1 | 17 | -0.1 | |
| J.Sanders37% | 2 | 6% | 0 | 0 | -1.9 | |
| J.Coker37% | 2 | 6% | 0 | 0 | -1.3 | |
| J.Jr.21% | 2 | 6% | 1 | 8 | -0.2 | |
| T.Tremble66% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 0 | -0.9 |
Defense J.Horn 2 INT, D.Brown 2 sacks, N.Scourton 1.5 sacks, A.Robinson 1 sack · Kicking R.Fitzgerald 2/2 FG (long 30)
Jets
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Taylor54% | 10/22 | 126 | 2 | 3 | -4.3 | |
| J.Fields46% | 6/12 | 46 | 3 | -9.2 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Hall54% | 11 | 55% | 38 | -0.9 | |
| J.Fields46% | 4 | 20% | 22 | +0.7 | |
| T.Taylor54% | 3 | 15% | 11 | -1.3 | |
| I.Davis48% | 2 | 10% | 10 | -0.3 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Reynolds95% | 9 | 29% | 3 | 29 | -7.6 | |
| M.Taylor93% | 5 | 16% | 3 | 31 | +2.1 | |
| I.Davis48% | 4 | 13% | 2 | 22 | +0.6 | |
| A.Lazard | 3 | 10% | 2 | 16 | -0.3 | |
| T.Johnson25% | 3 | 10% | 3 | 60 | +5.4 | |
| B.Hall54% | 3 | 10% | 2 | 14 | -0.2 | |
| A.Smith92% | 3 | 10% | 1 | 0 | -2.8 | |
| J.Ruckert28% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.6 |
Defense J.Sherwood 1 sack, J.Briggs 1 sack · Kicking N.Folk 2/2 FG (long 47)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Clean pockets
Panthers take a sack on 6% of dropbacks (13th). Jets get home on 5% (29th). League average is 7%.
Deep right is open
Jets are worst against deep right throws, allowing +0.80 EPA per attempt. Panthers send 5% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Third downs favor Jets
Panthers convert 37% of third downs (25th). Jets allow 39% (12th).
Yards per play
Call this one even. Panthers gain 5.1 yards per play (26th). Jets give up 5.8 (23rd), with the league at 5.4.
The Panthers lead the series 5–2 since 1999 (they first met in 2001). They have won the last 4. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 7 | CAR 13 at NYJ 6 |
| 2021 · Wk 1 | NYJ 14 at CAR 19 |
| 2017 · Wk 12 | CAR 35 at NYJ 27 |
| 2013 · Wk 15 | NYJ 20 at CAR 30 |
| 2009 · Wk 12 | CAR 6 at NYJ 17 |
2025 records
| Panthers | Jets | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8–9 | 3–14 |
| Division | 3–3 | 0–6 |
| Conference | 6–6 | 2–10 |
| Other conference | 2–3 | 1–4 |
| Home | 5–3 | 2–7 |
| Away | 3–6 | 1–7 |
| Last 5 | WLWLL | LLLLL |
| Streak | Lost 2 | Lost 5 |
| Points a game | 18.3 – 22.4 | 17.6 – 29.6 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Panthers' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | CAR off | Favors CAR · Favors NYJ | NYJ def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.04#26 | +0.15#31 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 43%#18 | 46%#24 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.1#26 | 5.8#23 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 9%#24 | 12%#28 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.06#25 | +0.25#32 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 6%#13 | 5%#29 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.05#17 | -0.02#21 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.3#14 | 4.4#20 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 37%#25 | 39%#12 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 57%#20 | 68%#32 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 131#19 | 136#14 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 37#30 | 54#18 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 5.8#27 | 7.2#16 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 31#14 | 35#22 | 32 | |
Panthers: EPA per throw
Jets: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.