2025
Week 7 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · MetLife Stadium
vs
Jets offensevsPanthers defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Jets, 18 for Panthers. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Panthers won 13–6; their low point was 38% at Q1 13:48. The Jets had been 54% favorites at kickoff. The game turned for good at Q2 5:22: M.B.Hall right guard to NYJ 8 for 1 yard (D.Brown) (50% → 52%). The biggest single swing came at Q3 3:56, 10 points for the Panthers.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q3 3:56CARS.Martin punts 68 yards to NYJ 21, downed by CAR-B.Tremayne.72% → 82%
- 2Q2 2:12CARB.Young pass short right to T.McMillan to NYJ 34 for 11 yards (J.Brownlee).53% → 62%
- 3Q2 14:56NYJR.Dowdle up the middle to CAR 49 for no gain (W.McDonald; M.Walker).38% → 47%
- 4Q4 4:34CART.Taylor pass deep right intended for J.Reynolds INTERCEPTED by Ja.Horn at CAR 40. Ja.Horn to CAR 40 for no gain (J.Reynolds).84% → 93%
- 5Q2 13:31NYJJ.Fields left end to CAR 37 for 4 yards (N.Scott). NYJ-J.Fields was injured during the play. PENALTY on CAR-N.Scott, Unnecessary Roughness, 15…47% → 56%
- ★Q2 5:22CARM.B.Hall right guard to NYJ 8 for 1 yard (D.Brown).turning point50% → 52%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
X.Legette led the Panthers at +3.4 EPA (9 catches for 92). T.Johnson led the Jets at +5.4 EPA (3 catches for 60).
Panthers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Young69% | 15/25 | 138 | 1 | 1 | +0.1 | |
| A.Dalton31% | 4/7 | 60 | 1 | -2.7 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R.Dowdle46% | 17 | 47% | 79 | +1.2 | |
| C.Hubbard54% | 14 | 39% | 31 | -2.7 | |
| A.Dalton31% | 2 | 6% | -2 | -3.0 | |
| B.Young69% | 2 | 6% | 10 | -0.5 | |
| J.Jr.21% | 1 | 3% | 7 | +0.5 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| X.Legette80% | 11 | 35% | 9 | 92 | 1 | +3.4 |
| T.McMillan87% | 5 | 16% | 3 | 33 | +1.4 | |
| C.Hubbard54% | 3 | 10% | 2 | 24 | +0.8 | |
| M.Evans44% | 3 | 10% | 2 | 24 | +1.6 | |
| R.Dowdle46% | 2 | 6% | 1 | 17 | -0.1 | |
| J.Sanders37% | 2 | 6% | 0 | 0 | -1.9 | |
| J.Coker37% | 2 | 6% | 0 | 0 | -1.3 | |
| J.Jr.21% | 2 | 6% | 1 | 8 | -0.2 | |
| T.Tremble66% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 0 | -0.9 |
Defense J.Horn 2 INT, D.Brown 2 sacks, N.Scourton 1.5 sacks, A.Robinson 1 sack · Kicking R.Fitzgerald 2/2 FG (long 30)
Jets
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Taylor54% | 10/22 | 126 | 2 | 3 | -4.3 | |
| J.Fields46% | 6/12 | 46 | 3 | -9.2 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Hall54% | 11 | 55% | 38 | -0.9 | |
| J.Fields46% | 4 | 20% | 22 | +0.7 | |
| T.Taylor54% | 3 | 15% | 11 | -1.3 | |
| I.Davis48% | 2 | 10% | 10 | -0.3 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Reynolds95% | 9 | 29% | 3 | 29 | -7.6 | |
| M.Taylor93% | 5 | 16% | 3 | 31 | +2.1 | |
| I.Davis48% | 4 | 13% | 2 | 22 | +0.6 | |
| A.Lazard | 3 | 10% | 2 | 16 | -0.3 | |
| T.Johnson25% | 3 | 10% | 3 | 60 | +5.4 | |
| B.Hall54% | 3 | 10% | 2 | 14 | -0.2 | |
| A.Smith92% | 3 | 10% | 1 | 0 | -2.8 | |
| J.Ruckert28% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.6 |
Defense J.Sherwood 1 sack, J.Briggs 1 sack · Kicking N.Folk 2/2 FG (long 47)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Ground game edge
Jets average 4.3 yards per carry (15th). Panthers allow 4.4 (21st).
Deep left is open
Panthers are worst against deep left throws, allowing +0.57 EPA per attempt. Jets send 7% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Wideouts get blanketed
Panthers give up 130 yards a game to wide receivers (13th), against a league average of 140. Jets' wide receivers produce 92 (31st).
EPA per play
Call this one even. Jets average -0.13 EPA per play (29th). Panthers allow +0.07 (23rd). League average is +0.01.
The Panthers lead the series 5–2 since 1999 (they first met in 2001). They have won the last 4. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 7 | CAR 13 at NYJ 6 |
| 2021 · Wk 1 | NYJ 14 at CAR 19 |
| 2017 · Wk 12 | CAR 35 at NYJ 27 |
| 2013 · Wk 15 | NYJ 20 at CAR 30 |
| 2009 · Wk 12 | CAR 6 at NYJ 17 |
2025 records
| Panthers | Jets | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8–9 | 3–14 |
| Division | 3–3 | 0–6 |
| Conference | 6–6 | 2–10 |
| Other conference | 2–3 | 1–4 |
| Home | 5–3 | 2–7 |
| Away | 3–6 | 1–7 |
| Last 5 | WLWLL | LLLLL |
| Streak | Lost 2 | Lost 5 |
| Points a game | 18.3 – 22.4 | 17.6 – 29.6 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Panthers' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | NYJ off | Favors NYJ · Favors CAR | CAR def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.13#29 | +0.07#23 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 40%#29 | 45%#19 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 4.5#29 | 5.6#20 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 8%#28 | 9%#10 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.19#28 | +0.11#24 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 11%#30 | 5%#27 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.11#28 | +0.01#27 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.3#15 | 4.4#21 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 35%#27 | 47%#30 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 44%#31 | 57%#14 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 92#31 | 130#13 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 35#31 | 61#25 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 6.2#20 | 6.7#11 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 35#12 | 29#13 | 32 | |
Jets: EPA per throw
Panthers: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.