2025
Week 7 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
vs
Raiders offensevsChiefs defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Raiders, 17 for Chiefs. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Chiefs won 31–0 and were favored the whole way, never below 83%. The biggest single swing came at Q1 9:31, 10 points for the Chiefs.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q1 9:31KCP.Mahomes pass deep right to T.Kelce pushed ob at LV 40 for 44 yards (E.Roberts; J.Chinn).83% → 93%
- 2Q1 9:58LVP.Mahomes pass short left to R.Rice to KC 26 for no gain (J.Adams). PENALTY on KC-J.Smith-Schuster, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at KC 26…14% → 18%
- 3Q1 14:19LVG.Smith pass short right to T.Tucker to KC 49 for 10 yards (T.McDuffie).13% → 15%
- 4Q1 11:44LVI.Pacheco up the middle to KC 10 for 2 yards (T.Booker; M.Koonce).12% → 14%
- 5Q1 13:00KCG.Smith pass short middle to D.Thornton to KC 33 for 13 yards (J.Watson). PENALTY on LV-J.Powers-Johnson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at…87% → 89%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
T.Tucker led the Raiders at +0.1 EPA (5 catches for 33). P.Mahomes led the Chiefs at +21.9 EPA (26 of 35 for 286).
Raiders
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G.Smith86% | 10/16 | 67 | 1 | -9.7 | ||
| K.Pickett14% | 2/2 | 8 | -0.8 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.Jeanty63% | 6 | 55% | 21 | -1.4 | |
| G.Smith86% | 2 | 18% | 1 | -2.3 | |
| D.Laube14% | 2 | 18% | 3 | -0.7 | |
| K.Pickett14% | 1 | 9% | 0 | -5.3 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Tucker89% | 6 | 35% | 5 | 33 | +0.1 | |
| D.Jr.86% | 3 | 18% | 0 | 0 | -4.3 | |
| M.Mayer94% | 2 | 12% | 1 | 10 | -1.4 | |
| J.Bech63% | 2 | 12% | 2 | 13 | -0.5 | |
| R.Mostert26% | 1 | 6% | 1 | 2 | -0.7 | |
| D.Laube14% | 1 | 6% | 1 | 1 | -1.0 | |
| A.Jeanty63% | 1 | 6% | 1 | 13 | -0.1 | |
| C.Runyon14% | 1 | 6% | 1 | 3 | -0.2 |
Defense J.Adams 1 sack
Chiefs
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P.Mahomes80% | 26/35 | 286 | 3 | 1 | +19.3 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I.Pacheco56% | 15 | 37% | 57 | 1 | -1.0 |
| B.Smith35% | 14 | 34% | 39 | -7.4 | |
| P.Mahomes80% | 4 | 10% | 28 | +2.6 | |
| K.Hunt19% | 4 | 10% | 18 | +2.2 | |
| G.Minshew20% | 3 | 7% | -3 | -0.1 | |
| X.Worthy59% | 1 | 2% | 13 | +0.9 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R.Rice41% | 10 | 29% | 7 | 42 | 2 | +4.4 |
| B.Smith35% | 5 | 15% | 5 | 42 | +3.3 | |
| M.Brown33% | 4 | 12% | 2 | 14 | 1 | +1.4 |
| X.Worthy59% | 4 | 12% | 3 | 35 | +1.7 | |
| T.Kelce62% | 3 | 9% | 3 | 54 | +3.4 | |
| J.Smith-Schuster36% | 3 | 9% | 3 | 35 | +4.5 | |
| I.Pacheco56% | 2 | 6% | 1 | -3 | -1.8 | |
| T.Thornton33% | 2 | 6% | 1 | 39 | +1.9 | |
| N.Gray59% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 28 | +2.1 |
Defense C.Jones 1 sack · Kicking H.Butker 1/1 FG (long 38)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Tight ends feast
Chiefs give up 48 yards a game to tight ends (11th), against a league average of 53. Raiders' tight ends produce 68 (5th).
Deep middle is open
Chiefs are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +0.83 EPA per attempt. Raiders send 2% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Ground game stalls
Raiders average 3.5 yards per carry (32nd). Chiefs allow 3.9 (7th).
Success rate
Call this one even. Raiders succeed on 38% of plays (30th) against a defense that allows 44% (14th).
The Chiefs lead the series 36–19 since 1999. Oct 4, 2026, at Allegiant Stadium: the Chiefs won 30–27. Kirk Cousins started at quarterback for the Raiders and Patrick Mahomes for the Chiefs; Klint Kubliak and Andy Reid coached.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 4 | KC 30 at LV 27 |
| 2025 · Wk 18 | KC 12 at LV 14 |
| 2025 · Wk 7 | LV 0 at KC 31 |
| 2024 · Wk 13 | LV 17 at KC 19 |
| 2024 · Wk 8 | KC 27 at LV 20 |
2025 records
| Raiders | Chiefs | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 3–14 | 6–11 |
| Division | 1–5 | 1–5 |
| Conference | 3–9 | 3–9 |
| Other conference | 0–5 | 3–2 |
| Home | 2–7 | 5–4 |
| Away | 1–7 | 1–7 |
| Last 5 | LLLLW | LLLLL |
| Streak | Won 1 | Lost 6 |
| Points a game | 14.2 – 25.4 | 21.3 – 19.3 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Raiders' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | LV off | Favors LV · Favors KC | KC def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.22#32 | -0.02#12 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 38%#30 | 44%#14 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 4.4#31 | 5.3#13 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 7%#31 | 9%#12 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.19#29 | 0.00#15 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 11%#32 | 6%#19 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.30#32 | -0.09#9 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 3.5#32 | 3.9#7 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 35%#28 | 44%#27 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 49%#28 | 55%#10 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 100#30 | 129#12 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 68#5 | 48#11 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 9.2#3 | 5.9#4 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 27#21 | 29#14 | 32 | |
Raiders: EPA per throw
Chiefs: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.