2025
Week 18 · Sunday 4:25 PM ET · Allegiant Stadium
vs
Chiefs offensevsRaiders defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Chiefs, 17 for Raiders. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Raiders won 14–12 from as low as 24% (Q2 12:32, down 3–0). The Chiefs had been 63% favorites at kickoff. The game turned for good at Q4 0:13: D.Carlson 60 yard field goal is GOOD (32% → 84%).
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 0:13LVD.Carlson 60 yard field goal is GOODturning point32% → 84%
- 2Q4 4:37KCH.Butker kicks 79 yards from KC 20 to LV 1. D.Laube to LV 23 for 22 yards (E.Downs). FUMBLES (E.Downs), RECOVERED by KC-J.Cochrane at LV 21.21% → 56%
- 3Q4 2:23KCS.Buechele pass deep left to M.Brown to LV 23 for 51 yards (L.Johnson; T.McCollum) [M.Koonce].45% → 69%
- 4Q4 0:04LVS.Buechele pass short middle to T.Kelce to KC 37 for 2 yards (J.Adams). FUMBLES (J.Adams), recovered by KC-J.Smith-Schuster at KC 37.…82% → 100%
- 5Q2 3:02LVM.C.Oladokun left tackle to KC 18 for no gain (T.Wilson). FUMBLES (T.Wilson), touched at KC 19, RECOVERED by LV-D.Porter at KC 18.38% → 56%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
N.Gray led the Chiefs at +0.5 EPA (3 catches for 30). S.Jackson led the Raiders at +1.8 EPA (1 catches for 11).
Chiefs
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Oladokun55% | 11/17 | 58 | 3 | -15.8 | ||
| S.Buechele45% | 7/14 | 88 | 5 | -6.8 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Smith53% | 12 | 52% | 56 | +0.3 | |
| K.Hunt39% | 5 | 22% | 14 | +0.4 | |
| D.Pierce8% | 4 | 17% | 10 | -1.6 | |
| S.Buechele45% | 1 | 4% | 4 | -0.8 | |
| C.Oladokun55% | 1 | 4% | 0 | -4.8 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Kelce80% | 6 | 20% | 3 | 12 | -0.2 | |
| M.Brown81% | 6 | 20% | 3 | 64 | -0.2 | |
| N.Gray56% | 5 | 17% | 3 | 30 | +0.5 | |
| K.Hunt39% | 4 | 13% | 3 | 21 | -2.1 | |
| B.Smith53% | 4 | 13% | 2 | 2 | -1.9 | |
| J.Royals67% | 3 | 10% | 2 | 4 | -1.6 | |
| J.Smith-Schuster78% | 2 | 7% | 2 | 13 | +0.3 |
Defense C.Jones 2 sacks, C.Conner 1 INT, N.Williams 1 sack · Kicking H.Butker 4/4 FG (long 47)
Raiders
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.O'Connell82% | 10/22 | 102 | 1 | -5.9 | ||
| K.Pickett18% | 1/4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | -10.8 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.Jeanty97% | 26 | 81% | 87 | -11.9 | |
| I.Pola-Mao | 1 | 3% | 3 | -3.0 | |
| Z.White3% | 1 | 3% | 5 | +0.5 | |
| K.Pickett18% | 1 | 3% | 9 | +1.6 | |
| T.Tucker98% | 1 | 3% | 4 | -0.2 | |
| A.O'Connell82% | 1 | 3% | 7 | +0.2 | |
| S.Jackson8% | 1 | 3% | 3 | -0.4 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Tucker98% | 6 | 23% | 2 | 30 | +0.6 | |
| T.Lockett52% | 5 | 19% | 1 | 5 | -4.6 | |
| M.Mayer95% | 5 | 19% | 3 | 47 | -0.2 | |
| A.Jeanty97% | 5 | 19% | 3 | 7 | -2.5 | |
| J.Bech58% | 2 | 8% | 0 | 0 | -6.9 | |
| Z.White3% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 5 | +0.0 | |
| S.Jackson8% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 11 | +2.2 | |
| D.Jr.13% | 1 | 4% | 0 | 0 | -0.6 |
Defense C.Snowden 2 sacks, T.Wilson 2 sacks, T.Hemingway 2 sacks, D.White 1.5 sacks · Kicking D.Carlson 4/4 FG (long 60)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Throw it
Chiefs gain +0.04 EPA per dropback (14th). Raiders allow +0.08 (22nd).
Deep middle is open
Raiders are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +0.56 EPA per attempt. Chiefs send 4% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Ground game stalls
Chiefs average 3.8 yards per carry (26th). Raiders allow 4.0 (10th).
Success rate
Call this one even. Chiefs succeed on 44% of plays (15th) against a defense that allows 45% (21st).
The Chiefs lead the series 36–19 since 1999. Oct 4, 2026, at Allegiant Stadium: the Chiefs won 30–27. Kirk Cousins started at quarterback for the Raiders and Patrick Mahomes for the Chiefs; Klint Kubliak and Andy Reid coached.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 4 | KC 30 at LV 27 |
| 2025 · Wk 18 | KC 12 at LV 14 |
| 2025 · Wk 7 | LV 0 at KC 31 |
| 2024 · Wk 13 | LV 17 at KC 19 |
| 2024 · Wk 8 | KC 27 at LV 20 |
2025 records
| Chiefs | Raiders | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6–11 | 3–14 |
| Division | 1–5 | 1–5 |
| Conference | 3–9 | 3–9 |
| Other conference | 3–2 | 0–5 |
| Home | 5–4 | 2–7 |
| Away | 1–7 | 1–7 |
| Last 5 | LLLLL | LLLLW |
| Streak | Lost 6 | Won 1 |
| Points a game | 21.3 – 19.3 | 14.2 – 25.4 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Chiefs' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | KC off | Favors KC · Favors LV | LV def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.03#12 | +0.03#19 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 44%#15 | 45%#21 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.2#20 | 5.2#11 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 9%#18 | 8%#7 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.04#14 | +0.08#22 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 7%#21 | 7%#18 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.05#15 | -0.07#14 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 3.8#26 | 4.0#10 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 38%#23 | 47%#31 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 57%#19 | 59%#18 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 147#14 | 147#21 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 61#8 | 39#3 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 8.6#7 | 5.7#3 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 25#25 | 28#10 | 32 | |
Chiefs: EPA per throw
Raiders: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.