2025
Week 15 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · MetLife Stadium
vs
Commanders offensevsGiants defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Commanders, 17 for Giants. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Commanders won 29–21; their low point was 43% at Q1 11:46. The Giants had been 56% favorites at kickoff. The game turned for good at Q1 7:04: Y.Koo 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left (49% → 55%). The biggest single swing came at Q2 0:26, 13 points for the Commanders.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q2 0:26NYGJ.Dart pass short middle intended for J.Hyatt INTERCEPTED by M.Sainristil at WAS 21. M.Sainristil to NYG 24 for 55 yards (J.Hyatt).76% → 89%
- 2Q2 13:44WASJ.Croskey-Merritt up the middle for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN.62% → 73%
- 3Q1 11:46WASM.Mariota pass deep right to N.Brown to NYG 29 for 28 yards (J.Holland).43% → 52%
- 4Q2 1:20NYGC.Johnston punts 48 yards to WAS 37 J.Lane for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on NYG-Z.Barnes, Ineligible Downfield Kick, declined.72% → 81%
- 5Q3 0:51NYGT.Tracy right end to WAS 20 for 5 yards (B.Wagner). PENALTY on NYG-J.Schmitz, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at WAS 20.62% → 71%
- ★Q1 7:04NYGY.Koo 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Leftturning point49% → 55%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. Each play is tagged with the team that had the ball; the bar names the team it helped. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
T.McLaurin led the Commanders at +5.8 EPA (3 catches for 69). J.Dart led the Giants at +5.2 EPA (20 of 36 for 246).
Commanders
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M.Mariota100% | 10/19 | 211 | 1 | 2 | +1.5 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Croskey-Merritt52% | 18 | 49% | 96 | 1 | +3.4 |
| M.Mariota100% | 10 | 27% | 43 | +1.5 | |
| J.McNichols49% | 9 | 24% | 6 | -6.2 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Sr.61% | 5 | 31% | 3 | 43 | +1.2 | |
| T.McLaurin75% | 4 | 25% | 3 | 69 | 1 | +5.8 |
| T.Burks46% | 2 | 13% | 0 | 0 | -2.4 | |
| N.Brown16% | 1 | 6% | 1 | 28 | +3.1 | |
| J.McNichols49% | 1 | 6% | 1 | 16 | +1.4 | |
| J.Bates69% | 1 | 6% | 1 | 19 | +1.3 | |
| B.Sinnott57% | 1 | 6% | 1 | 36 | +1.2 | |
| J.Lane46% | 1 | 6% | 0 | 0 | -1.1 |
Defense M.Sainristil 1 INT, V.Miller 1 sack · Kicking J.Moody 3/3 FG (long 46)
Giants
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Dart97% | 20/36 | 246 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1.3 |
| J.Winston3% | 0/1 | 0 | -1.5 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Jr.76% | 15 | 52% | 70 | 1 | +0.7 |
| J.Dart97% | 9 | 31% | 63 | +3.9 | |
| D.Singletary24% | 5 | 17% | 13 | -3.0 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Slayton87% | 10 | 28% | 4 | 53 | -4.1 | |
| W.Robinson99% | 10 | 28% | 5 | 54 | 1 | +0.8 |
| D.Bellinger26% | 4 | 11% | 3 | 35 | +3.6 | |
| T.Jr.76% | 4 | 11% | 3 | 27 | 1 | +1.6 |
| T.Johnson87% | 4 | 11% | 3 | 72 | +3.4 | |
| I.Hodgins87% | 2 | 6% | 1 | 4 | -0.5 | |
| D.Singletary24% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 1 | -0.4 | |
| J.Hyatt6% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -3.3 |
Defense D.Belton 1 sack, A.Carter 1 sack · Kicking Y.Koo 0/2 FG
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Ground game edge
Commanders average 4.5 yards per carry (9th). Giants allow 5.4 (32nd).
Deep left is open
Giants are worst against deep left throws, allowing +0.69 EPA per attempt. Commanders send 8% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Tight ends go quiet
Giants give up 47 yards a game to tight ends (10th), against a league average of 53. Commanders' tight ends produce 43 (24th).
EPA per play
Call this one even. Commanders average +0.01 EPA per play (17th). Giants allow +0.08 (25th). League average is +0.01.
The Giants lead the series 32–21–2 since 1999. Oct 11, 2026, at Northwest Stadium: the teams tied 27–27 in overtime. Jayden Daniels started at quarterback for the Commanders and Jameis Winston for the Giants; Dan Quinn and John Harbaugh coached.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 5 · OT | NYG 27 at WAS 27 |
| 2025 · Wk 15 | WAS 29 at NYG 21 |
| 2025 · Wk 1 | NYG 6 at WAS 21 |
| 2024 · Wk 9 | WAS 27 at NYG 22 |
| 2024 · Wk 2 | NYG 18 at WAS 21 |
2025 records
| Commanders | Giants | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5–12 | 4–13 |
| Division | 3–3 | 2–4 |
| Conference | 3–9 | 2–10 |
| Other conference | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Home | 2–6 | 3–5 |
| Away | 3–6 | 1–8 |
| Last 5 | LWLLW | LLLWW |
| Streak | Won 1 | Won 2 |
| Points a game | 20.9 – 26.5 | 22.4 – 25.8 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Commanders' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | WAS off | Favors WAS · Favors NYG | NYG def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.01#17 | +0.08#25 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 46%#9 | 47%#26 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.6#12 | 6.0#29 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 10%#11 | 12%#32 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.01#17 | +0.02#16 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 7%#20 | 7%#17 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.04#11 | +0.13#32 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.5#9 | 5.4#32 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 39%#22 | 40%#14 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 67%#6 | 63%#23 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 133#18 | 152#23 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 43#24 | 47#10 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 6.1#22 | 6.7#9 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 20#31 | 31#19 | 32 | |
Commanders: EPA per throw
Giants: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.