2025
Week 15 · Sunday 4:25 PM ET · Lumen Field
vs
Colts offensevsSeahawks defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Colts, 20 for Seahawks. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Seahawks won 18–16; their low point was 40% at Q4 0:47. The game turned for good at Q4 0:42: S.Darnold pass deep left to R.Shaheed to IND 46 for 17 yards (J.Edwards) (47% → 57%). The biggest single swing came at Q4 0:22, 29 points for the Seahawks.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 0:22SEAJ.Myers 56 yard field goal is GOOD55% → 84%
- 2Q4 0:52INDB.Grupe 60 yard field goal is GOOD34% → 61%
- 3Q4 0:28SEAS.Darnold pass short left to R.Shaheed ran ob at IND 38 for 8 yards (J.Edwards).53% → 65%
- 4Q4 5:30SEAS.Darnold pass deep right to J.Smith-Njigba ran ob at IND 32 for 39 yards (C.Bynum).63% → 75%
- 5Q4 2:30SEAJ.Myers 30 yard field goal is GOOD64% → 75%
- ★Q4 0:42SEAS.Darnold pass deep left to R.Shaheed to IND 46 for 17 yards (J.Edwards).turning point47% → 57%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. Each play is tagged with the team that had the ball; the bar names the team it helped. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
M.Pittman led the Colts at +2.5 EPA (3 catches for 26). J.Smith-Njigba led the Seahawks at +6.2 EPA (7 catches for 113).
Colts
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P.Rivers100% | 18/27 | 120 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2.5 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Taylor85% | 25 | 83% | 87 | -1.6 | |
| A.Abdullah23% | 4 | 13% | 15 | -0.4 | |
| P.Rivers100% | 1 | 3% | 0 | -1.2 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Warren82% | 6 | 23% | 3 | 19 | -3.4 | |
| A.Abdullah23% | 5 | 19% | 5 | 32 | -0.2 | |
| M.Pittman93% | 5 | 19% | 3 | 26 | +2.5 | |
| J.Downs72% | 5 | 19% | 3 | 13 | 1 | -0.2 |
| J.Taylor85% | 4 | 15% | 3 | 14 | -1.1 | |
| A.Pierce100% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 16 | +1.7 |
Defense L.Latu 1 sack · Kicking B.Grupe 3/3 FG (long 60)
Seahawks
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S.Darnold100% | 22/36 | 271 | 1 | +4.6 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.III42% | 9 | 41% | 17 | -5.2 | |
| Z.Charbonnet55% | 8 | 36% | 31 | -0.2 | |
| S.Darnold100% | 4 | 18% | 5 | -0.6 | |
| R.Shaheed68% | 1 | 5% | -3 | -1.0 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Smith-Njigba92% | 9 | 27% | 7 | 113 | +6.2 | |
| C.Kupp75% | 7 | 21% | 5 | 46 | -0.2 | |
| R.Shaheed68% | 7 | 21% | 5 | 74 | +1.5 | |
| A.Barner83% | 6 | 18% | 3 | 27 | +1.7 | |
| E.Saubert37% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 9 | +0.7 | |
| K.III42% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 2 | -0.5 | |
| B.Russell8% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.5 | |
| Z.Charbonnet55% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -1.9 |
Defense C.Bryant 1 INT, N.Emmanwori 1 sack · Kicking J.Myers 6/6 FG (long 56)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Tight ends feast
Seahawks give up 8.3 targets a game to tight ends (27th), against a league average of 7.3. Colts' tight ends produce 8.2 (9th).
Deep middle is open
Seahawks are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +0.37 EPA per attempt. Colts send 4% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Ground game stalls
Colts average 4.6 yards per carry (8th). Seahawks allow 3.5 (1st).
Success rate
Call this one even. Colts succeed on 46% of plays (6th) against a defense that allows 40% (3rd).
The Seahawks lead the series 4–3 since 1999 (they first met in 2000). They have won the last 3. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 15 | IND 16 at SEA 18 |
| 2021 · Wk 1 | SEA 28 at IND 16 |
| 2017 · Wk 4 | IND 18 at SEA 46 |
| 2013 · Wk 5 | SEA 28 at IND 34 |
| 2009 · Wk 4 | SEA 17 at IND 34 |
2025 records
| Colts | Seahawks | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8–9 | 14–3 |
| Division | 2–4 | 4–2 |
| Conference | 6–6 | 9–3 |
| Other conference | 2–3 | 5–0 |
| Home | 6–3 | 6–2 |
| Away | 2–6 | 8–1 |
| Last 5 | LLLLL | WWWWW |
| Streak | Lost 7 | Won 7 |
| Points a game | 27.4 – 24.2 | 28.4 – 17.2 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Colts' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | IND off | Favors IND · Favors SEA | SEA def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.08#7 | -0.12#2 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 46%#6 | 40%#3 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.9#8 | 4.8#4 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 9%#19 | 8%#2 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.06#10 | -0.12#5 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 5%#7 | 7%#11 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | +0.06#2 | -0.19#1 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.6#8 | 3.5#1 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 43%#7 | 34%#1 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 68%#3 | 54%#6 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 154#11 | 118#5 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 57#10 | 63#27 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 8.2#9 | 8.3#27 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 29#18 | 41#27 | 32 | |
Colts: EPA per throw
Seahawks: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.